1,000 applications a day: Ohio's new universal voucher program exceeds cost estimates

With more than a month left for parents to enroll, Ohio's new universal school voucher program appears to already be more expensive than estimated.

According to an analysis by the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, the state has received applications totaling approximately $432 million for the 2023-2024 school year. That's $34 million more than the Legislative Service Commission forecasted.

And interest in EdChoice Expansion scholarships isn't slowing.

The Ohio Department of Education says it receives between 900 and 1,000 applications daily.

"Voucher programs have busted state budgets in places like Arizona," Ohio Education Association President Scott DiMauro said. "I don’t know that anybody knew exactly what to expect, but it’s not surprising that people already sending their kids to private schools would take advantage of free money provided by the state."

Expanding costs

When Ohio's two-year budget was drafted, LSC estimated that EdChoice Expansion, the name for Ohio's income-based vouchers, would cost $397.8 million for fiscal year 2024 and $439.1 million in FY 2025.

But voucher interest has skyrocketed since lawmakers expanded eligibility to all Ohioans in the state budget this July. The state awarded 24,320 EdChoice Expansion vouchers for the 2022-2023 school year. This year, ODE has received 70,487 applications as of Sept 6.

"What this new program has essentially done is removed a lot of the logistical problems," Ohio Senate President Matt Huffman, R-Lima, said.

Every child in Ohio qualifies for some scholarship amount, so there's no figuring out whether a student is eligible. The application isn't difficult to complete, Huffman said. And private schools get their checks directly from the state instead of local districts.

Seventy-eight percent of the current applications have come from students in kindergarten through eighth grade, which means they are eligible for up to $6,165 per year. The other 22% of high school students can receive up to $8,407.

If ODE awards full scholarships to all those children, that would total $470 million for FY 2024.

But not every Ohio student is eligible for a full scholarship. Families with incomes that exceed 450% of the federal poverty rate receive less money as their salaries rise until they bottom out at $650 annually for K-8 and $950 for high school.

ODE was unable to provide specific numbers for each income bracket, but spokesperson Lacey Snoke said, "Of the scholarship awards made as of Sept. 6, approximately 92% of awards were for students that fell in the lowest  (450% of federal poverty rate or lower) income band. This percentage will likely change as we process additional applications."

Using that as a reference, the current total for those who qualify for a full scholarship would be $432 million.

The wild card in all this is that vouchers are on a rolling application cycle, and Snoke said the department receives between 900 and 1,000 applications a day. That number will likely drop after the Oct. 15 deadline, but it's possible that Ohio will receive more than 100,000 scholarship requests in its first year of universal vouchers.

"I’m always concerned about cost no matter what the program is," Huffman said. "Right now, there is certainly money to pay for it."

Ohio's revenue forecasts have exceeded expectations for several months, and the state is flush with cash. But it will be an issue future general assemblies have to address.

"This program will grow," Huffman said. "I think it will grow exponentially in the next few years."

New vs. existing students

Ohio isn't tracking how many new voucher applicants already attend private schools.

"The application platform for this program does not ask where the student was enrolled prior to applying for the scholarship, so we do not have this information," Snoke said.

That means it will be difficult to discern whether the spike in EdChoice expansion scholarships came from parents looking to leave public school or those whose children already attend.

One estimate, created by the nonpartisan Legislative Services Commission during the debate over the backpack bill, put the percentage at 90% existing private school students and 10% transfers from public schools.

Part of the commission's reasoning was there simply isn't capacity (available seats) at private schools for tens of thousands of new students. Another was location; Large swaths of rural Ohio have no nonpublic alternatives.

More: Every Ohio child will be eligible for a school voucher but many won't be able to use them

Adding more oversight

Democrats and some Republicans want to know where these new voucher students are coming from, and they want more oversight on how they perform on standardized tests.

"We’re looking at putting some checks and balances in place," Rep. Jay Edwards, R-Nelsonville, said.

One area of particular concern for the Appalachian lawmaker was verifying that parents were honest about their household incomes. Ohio law permits parents to prove what they earn in three ways:

• Submit an affidavit affirming the student’s family income meets the income requirement.

• Provide proof of income eligibility under another state or federal program.

• Provide other evidence determined appropriate by the department.

And renewing EdChoice Expansion families don't need to complete the income verification process each year.

Edwards told the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau he'd like EdChoice to receive the same level of scrutiny as other social programs like free school lunches or subsidized childcare.

"Look for something this fall," Edwards said. "There are verifications people should have to go through to make sure they are being honest."

Rep. Sean Brennan, D-Parma, agreed, saying he would 100% support adding oversight to Ohio's voucher program.

"I’d like more parameters on how the schools will determine who they admit and won’t admit," he said.

Private schools, unlike public schools, can choose not to accept certain students, and Brennan worries that those with special needs or poor grades or a history of disciplinary problems could be excluded.

"I think if a school expels a kid, they should have to pay back the voucher," he said. "If they don’t want them anymore, then they don’t get the voucher money for that child."

Editor's Note: An earlier version of this article incorrectly attributed LSC's cost estimate for the voucher program.

Anna Staver is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, which serves the Columbus Dispatch, Cincinnati Enquirer, Akron Beacon Journal and 18 other affiliated news organizations across Ohio.

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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Ohio's new universal voucher program is already over budget