10 Arizona races to watch in the 2024 election

The 2024 election is shaping up to be a pivotal one, and not just because voters will choose the next president.

While the battle for U.S. Senate will get the most attention, there are plenty of other races down the ballot that could change the political headwinds in Arizona.

Here are just a few to watch:

U.S. Senate

Essentially, there will be no primary election. Kari Lake has already looked past her GOP primary opponent Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and is attacking Democrat Ruben Gallego. Gallego is punching back.

Because Democrats and Gallego are vulnerable to border chaos, expect him to press hard against Lake’s populist extremism and abortion abolitionism, using the same playbook that Gov. Katie Hobbs used to beat her.

Democrats can no longer ignore the crisis on the U.S.-Mexico border. Heading into 2024 it plays to Lake’s “build the wall” politics. Incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who hasn’t formally entered the race as an independent, is pushing bipartisan reforms to the asylum system.

If Sinema runs, she’ll run against our hyper-polarized culture to try to steal votes from both parties and win independents.

U.S. Congress

DISTRICT 1

Republican David Schweikert has been tagged by The Cook Political Report and National Journal as one of the nation’s most vulnerable incumbents. Multiple Democrats are out to chase him down in this Scottsdale-centric district, including former Arizona party chairman Andrei Cherny, former TV anchorwoman Marlene Galán-Woods, state Rep. Amish Shah and top fundraiser Conor O’Callaghan.

DISTRICT 6

The nation’s eyes are on this race in southeastern Arizona as rising GOP star Juan Ciscomani tries to hold a seat he won by only a point in 2022. Democrat and former state Sen. Kirsten Engel will be back to see if she can beat him in a district in which Republicans hold a tiny registration advantage.

DISTRICT 8

This heavily Republican West Valley district could become a battle for the soul of the party, now that incumbent Debbie Lesko has called it quits. Expect a showdown between MAGA frontrunner Abe Hamadeh, who ran unsuccessfully in 2022 for attorney general, and state House Speaker Ben Toma, a more traditional Republican.

Arizona Legislature

The House and Senate may be split by one vote, but the far right is calling most of the shots — particularly in the Senate, which remains in a protracted showdown with Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs over her agency directors.

Even some moderate Republicans are now arguing behind the scenes that the only way to wrestle control — and lawmakers’ focus — back toward the middle is to flip one or both chambers.

Will those efforts be successful in 2024?

That depends on the outcome of a few competitive races in places like north Phoenix, Scottsdale, Chandler and Tucson. With a one-vote difference, Democrats must gain one seat to tie and two to flip.

Corporation Commission

Republicans dominate the five-member board that regulates utilities 4-1, but Democrats will put up a strong challenge. Two Republicans beat the Democratic candidates two years ago, but by slender margins.

Up for reelection this coming year is Republican James O’Connor, the commission chair. He is the most vulnerable after leaping head-first into Republican election conspiracies and trying to use the commission to probe voter fraud.

Anna Tovar, a Democrat, and Lea Márquez Peterson, a Republican, became the first two Latinas voted to Arizona statewide office in 2020. They are up for reelection and expected to hold their seats.

Rate hikes will be issue one, as the GOP-dominated board has granted significant rate hikes this year and in years past. Climate change and renewable energy will also be issues after the grueling heat wave that gripped 2023.

Ballot initiatives

The one measure that’ll likely drive single-issue voters to the polls in 2024 —and could affect outcomes in other close races across the ballot — is the Arizona Abortion Access Act.

The initiative would enshrine in the state constitution broad abortion rights that were established by the U.S. Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision in 1973 and subsequently lost when the court overturned the ruling last summer.

Why both sides: In Arizona abortion debate matter

Other initiative drives have the potential to animate conservative and progressive voters alike, including one that requires workers in unionized workplaces to join the union or pay dues and another that boosts Arizona’s minimum wage by $1 an hour.

Voters are also likely to be given a stark choice with competing election initiatives:

• A citizen-led effort that seeks to establish open primaries, allowing all candidates to appear on one ballot in primary elections and all voters to cast a ballot, regardless of political affiliation, and

• A measure referred to the ballot by state lawmakers that would keep primaries accessible to only those registered with a political party.

Judges

Judicial retention used to be a boring and largely overlooked exercise, as many voters checked “yes” to dozens of judges’ names they’d never heard of.

But successful efforts to remove judges last time around have court reformers itching to bounce a few more.

Some judges are quietly raising concerns about the politics creeping into retention campaigns.

They warn that it could have a chilling effect on justice, if judges fear removal for making unpopular rulings and the politics keep qualified, impartial candidates from pursuing these important seats.

We’ll see how that goes in the general election, when Supreme Court justices and appeals and superior court judges are on the ballot.

Maricopa County sheriff

Paul Penzone has the Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office close to full compliance with a court decree to correct the problems of his predecessor, Joe Arpaio.

But he’s quitting a year before his term ends, flustered by a court-appointed monitor’s assessment that data on traffic stops, resulting searches and arrests still show a racial disparity despite years of revamped training and policies.

The question is whether whoever wins the sheriff’s race will be willing and able to get the department to the finish line of the consent decree.

As of this week, two Republicans have filed to run, one the former right-hand man of Sheriff Arpaio, Jerry Sheridan, and longtime law enforcement officer Mike Crawford.

No Democrat has declared.

A wild card is who county supervisors will tap early next year to fill Penzone’s remaining term and whether that person has interest in running for the permanent job.

Central Arizona Water Conservation District

This down-ballot race is also usually overlooked, but the decisions it makes are essential to life in the desert.

The board oversees the Central Arizona Project, the 336-mile canal that delivers water from a dwindling Colorado River to metro Phoenix and Tucson.

This year, five Maricopa County seats are up for election, and if past is prologue, at least a dozen candidates will end up vying for them. Historically these seats have been nonpartisan and filled by water professionals, but bits of partisanship have begun creeping into the campaigns.

Whoever wins will face pivotal decisions early in their terms, as the Colorado River basin states negotiate new operating rules to better handle drought and shortage.

This is an opinion of The Arizona Republic's editorial board.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Arizona 2024 election is full of important races to watch