The 10 best first-round picks in Packers history (and the 10 worst)

The inexact science of the NFL draft yields a wide variety of outcomes for first-round draft choices, and the Green Bay Packers are no exception. Most Packers fans could probably name the first-round busts as readily as the first-round successes.

Which are the best and worst in franchise history? To cut out some opinion, let's use the Football Reference metric for weighted approximated career value, which attempts to emphasize a player's best seasons in the league rather than just reward players for sticking around a long time.

It's still a stat that tracks players throughout their career, so a player such as B.J. Raji won't rank very highly because he didn't play deep into his 30s. Moreover, a player like Kenny Clark isn't yet in the top 10, but he could easily get there eventually.

Also, the metric keeps track of a player's entire career, so this may not simply include what was accomplished with the Packers.

Bearing that in mind, and focusing on players drafted in 1960 or later (meaning players who played relatively close to the "Super Bowl Era"), here's the top-10 list:

T-10. Nick Barnett (29th pick in 2003), Fred Carr (fifth pick in 1968)

One would imagine you didn't expect to see either of these names on a top-10 list. Barnett, drafted out of Oregon State, started 139 games in his career and started nine years, including two years with Buffalo after departing Green Bay. He made second-team All-Pro in 2007 and proved to be a relatively effective linebacker. Carr was a three-time Pro Bowl linebacker, playing from 1968-77 with the Packers, and he routinely started every game. He finished with eight interceptions, 15 fumble recoveries and 13 sacks in his career. Quarterback Babe Parilli (drafted in 1952) is also tied with these two in the Football-Reference metric.

T-8/9. Vonnie Holliday (19th pick in 1998) and John Anderson (26th pick in 1978)

Holliday garnered much of his career success outside of Green Bay, with four seasons as a regular starter in Miami and another in Kansas City. The defensive end was only with the Packers for five seasons, taking second in the defensive rookie of the year voting in 1998 and getting an amazing 32 of his 62 1/2 sacks as a Packer. The linebacker Anderson, a Wisconsin native who played at Michigan, spent all 12 of his seasons with the Packers, finishing with 25 interceptions, 15 fumble recoveries and 24 1/2 sacks.

7. Donny Anderson (7th pick in 1965)

The running back was new to the scene when the Packers won their first two Super Bowls, and he really took off after that, starting with a Pro Bowl campaign in 1968. He finished his career with 4,696 rushing yards and 41 touchdowns, many with the Packers, though he finished his career with three years in St. Louis.

6. Sterling Sharpe (7th pick in 1988)

The perpetual "what if" conversation revolves around what happens if Sharpe doesn't suffer a career-ending neck injury. For seven seasons, the wide receiver out of South Carolina was the gold standard at his position, three times earning first-team All-Pro and making five Pro Bowls. He set new records for catches in a season twice (108 in 1992 and 112 in 1993) and racked up 8,134 yards receiving and 65 touchdowns in his career. There's a strong case to be made that he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame regardless of his truncated career.

5. Clay Matthews (26th pick in 2009)

The Packers traded up to get Matthews, making him the second first-round pick of the day along with B.J. Raji. Two years later, both players were central figures in Green Bay's run to a Super Bowl title. The USC alumnus made six Pro Bowls with the Packers and earned first-team All-Pro once, taking second in the defensive player of the year voting during that Super Bowl season. His 83 1/2 sacks are considered a franchise best.

4. Dave Robinson (14th pick in 1963)

We've entered the "Hall of Fame" portion of the program. Robinson, a linebacker out of Penn State, started for nine years, twice earning first-team All-Pro. He was a staple on the great Lombardi-era teams and earned a spot on the 1960s all-decade team. He was part of three NFL championships and two Super Bowl titles.

3. James Lofton (6th pick in 1978)

The receiver out of Stanford, like Robinson, has also been enshrined in Canton, though his career is split among a few destinations. He was at his best with the Packers, making seven Pro Bowls in his nine seasons, including one first-team All-Pro season in 1981. He caught 530 passes for more than 9,600 yards and 49 touchdowns in Green Bay, and he tabulated more than 14,000 receiving yards in his career, with stops in Oakland, Buffalo and briefly Philadelphia. Though the Packers struggled in the 1980s, he landed a spot on the NFL's all-decade team.

2. Herb Adderley (12th pick in 1961)

The defensive back out of Michigan State is also in Canton, and he played a starring role in Super Bowl II with the first defensive touchdown in Super Bowl history, a 60-yard pick-six. The five-time All-Pro pick posted 48 interceptions in his career, with 39 in Green Bay before spending his final three seasons in Dallas. He also has a spot on the 1960s all-decade team.

1. Aaron Rodgers (24th pick in 2005)

It couldn't be anyone else, could it? Now a four-time MVP and Super Bowl champion, the ageless Rodgers will enter his 14th season as starter. He's made 10 Pro Bowl rosters and sits 10th all-time in NFL passing yards, and fifth in touchdowns.

What about these guys?

Don't freak out when you don't see these names on the list. Remember the caveats:

Willie Buchanan (1972). An All-Pro cornerback who started eight seasons in the 1970s and early 1980s.

Ken Ruettgers (1985). A rock on the offensive line for more than a decade, including the start of the Favre glory years.

Gale Gillingham (1966). Offensive lineman named to five Pro Bowls.

Paul Hornung (1957). He's this low on the list by the metric but also was drafted before our timetable of 1960. He's one of two players taken first overall in franchise history (Randy Duncan is the other in 1959), and he's one of four players on this list who are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He won the 1961 MVP and probably would have collected even more accolades had he not been suspended for gambling in 1963 or been asked to do so many different things instead of focusing on just running, receiving or kicking.

Kenny Clark (2016). Give it a little more time.

The 10 worst picks in Packers first-round history

We're starting in 1960, remember, but we're also going to give a pass to the last five draft classes who haven't had a chance to leave a career mark yet.

T-9/10. Datone Jones (26th pick in 2013) and Don Horn (25th pick in 1967)

The quarterback Horn started 15 games in his career, including six with the Packers, and he posted 36 interceptions with only 20 touchdowns. He was part of the 1967 team that won Super Bowl II, however, before enlisting in the U.S. Army for most of the 1968 season. He came back to lead the Packers to a thrilling win over the Bears in relief of Zeke Bratkowski and Bart Starr when both got injured. Horn threw for 410 yards against St. Louis in one game of the 1969 season.

The defensive end Jones, from UCLA, played four years in Green Bay, amassing 10 sacks and an interception, but he wasn't able to become a consistent pass rusher and finished his career with brief stints in with the Cowboys, 49ers and Raiders.

8. John Michels (27th pick in 1996)

The offensive tackle from USC only played two seasons with the Packers, starting in 14 games but dealing with knee injuries that ultimately short-circuited his career. Today, he's a pain-management doctor.

7. Jerry Tagge (11th pick in 1972)

The quarterback who hailed originally from Green Bay and witnessed Lombardi's Packers firsthand as a child played at Nebraska started 12 games for the Packers from 1972-74, throwing three touchdowns and 17 interceptions. When Starr replaced coach Dan Devine, he released Tagge before the 1975 season.

6. Barry Smith (21st pick in 1973)

It was back-to-back tough first-round picks for the Packers. The receiver out of Florida State did start 23 games in his NFL career and enjoyed three years as a starter, with most of that work in Green Bay. In 1976, he was selected by the Buccaneers in the expansion draft.

5. Larry Elkins (10th pick in 1965)

The wide receiver out of Baylor started nine AFL games, all during a two-year stretch with Houston. He chose the AFL destination over the NFL's Packers, then suffered a knee injury in training camp in the first of multiple injury obstacles.

4. Jamal Reynolds (10th pick in 2001)

Green Bay traded up to select the defensive end out of Florida State, but he never started a game in the NFL and only spent 2001-03 with the Packers. Reynolds battled injuries, and the rise of Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila meant less playing time.

3. Derek Sherrod (32nd pick in 2011)

A catastrophic leg injury kept Sherrod from ever showing what he could do after he became the last pick in the 2011 first round. He played in just 20 games, starting once.

T-1/2 Justin Harrell (16th pick in 2007) and Rich Campbell (6th pick in 1981)

A player who dealt with injuries at Tennessee, Harrell wasn't a popular selection even in the moment, and certainly not in retrospect after injuries continued to limit his availability. He started two games in his career and made 27 tackles.

Becoming the rarest of rarities as a first-round quarterback who never started an NFL game, Campbell appeared in only seven, completing 31 of 68 passes with three touchdowns and nine interceptions. Green Bay didn't draft another first-round quarterback until it took Rodgers in 2005.

What about these guys?

Tony Mandarich (1989). It's the first name you thought of, right? But the poster child for "Packers draft bust" is actually middle of the pack on this metric; one shouldn't forget that he started 63 NFL games and was an effective starter for Indianapolis his last three seasons in the league. That's enough to keep him out of the bottom.

Bruce Clark (1980). The defensive tackle expressed reservations about playing for the Packers, specifically their desire to play him as a nose tackle (he preferred linebacker). But the Packers made him the fourth overall choice in 1980, then watched as he signed with Toronto of the Canadian Football League. He played in the NFL two years later and fashioned a fine career (which is why he's not officially on this list), but never for the Packers.

Randy Duncan (1959). The first overall pick only played in 14 career games and started two for the Dallas Texans of the AFL, but he was drafted just ahead of our 1960 cutoff. Instead of joining the Packers, he elected to take more money to play for the British Columbia Lions of the Canadian Football League before winding up in Texas.

Ahmad Carroll (2004) and Antuan Edwards (1999). The defensive backs were both misfires, but they miss the bottom 10 narrowly.

JR Radcliffe can be reached at (262) 361-9141 or jradcliffe@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @JRRadcliffe.

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This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: The 10 best first-round picks in Packers history (and the 10 worst)