10 big questions for Packers-49ers in NFC Divisional Round showdown
The Green Bay Packers (13-4) will welcome the surging San Francisco 49ers (11-7) to Lambeau Field for the NFC Divisional Round on Saturday night. The Packers cruised to the No. 1 seed in the NFC and earned a first-round bye in the playoffs, and now Matt LaFleur’s team gets to host the 49ers, who have won eight of their last 10 games. The winner will go to the NFC title game.
To help preview the showdown, Packers Wire managing editor Zach Kruse and Niners Wire managing editor Kyle Madson provided answers to 10 big questions.
1. How important was using Deebo Samuel at RB to the 49ers' late season surge?
Madson: It’s arguably been the most important aspect of their turnaround. Their offense looked disjointed and without an identity during their first eight games, but featuring Samuel as a running back allowed them to get the ball into the hands of their best playmaker, and helped them establish the run-first identity that’s carried them to an 8-2 record since a 3-5 start. The threat of Samuel as a runner gives head coach Kyle Shanahan a ton of different wrinkles he can throw at defenses to keep them off balance enough that they can’t slow the run game even when they know it’s coming.
2. How good has the 49ers' pass-rush been lately?
Madson: It’s been really good for a couple of reasons. First, Arden Key has been moved inside where he’s dominated. He had just 12 pressures through the first 12 games. That number has ballooned to 27 over the last eight games. His presence inside gives the 49ers a ton of different pressure options with the different games and stunts they can run up front. DE Charles Omenihu, who was acquired for a 2023 sixth-round pick before the trade deadline, has added some depth on the edge and led the team with six pressures vs. Dallas. DL Arik Armstead is also playing some of the best football of his career as an interior pass rusher. Getting all that help around Nick Bosa has been the biggest reason for the pass rush’s dominance over the last few weeks.
3. Is there any concern that the Packers haven't played a "real" game since Christmas?
Kruse: That’s something I hadn’t really thought about, but it’s a fair question. I think the Packers did fear being rusty after a long layoff, which is why starters played the first half in Detroit in the season finale. The rust factor, at least in my opinion, is often over-emphasized, but I do wonder if there could be an opportunity for the 49ers to shell-shock the Packers early on Saturday night. They are physical and can punch a team in the mouth at the line of scrimmage. That’s a hard thing to replicate in practice. The Packers need to be ready to go right away because the 49ers have been fighting for their playoff lives for a month now while Matt LaFleur’s team coasted to the No. 1 seed.
4. Where do this year's Packers rank among teams from the Aaron Rodgers era?
Kruse: I don’t think they are the most dominant team of the Aaron Rodgers era, but they might be the deepest, and maybe the most mentally tough. This group has gone through a lot of adversity, starting way back in April with all the drama surrounding Rodgers’ future and continuing into the season with significant injury losses. They’ve weathered it all and found a bunch of different ways to win. After an NFL-high 39 regular-season victories and two straight trips to the NFC title game over the last three seasons, I think this is a battle-tested team that should be ready to get over the hump.
5. Can Jimmy Garoppolo go into Lambeau Field with a bad thumb and shoulder and play well enough to win?
Madson: The answer to ‘can he do it’ is yes. The entire problem with Garoppolo as a franchise quarterback though is that he’s too sporadic to give a hard prediction either way. He may go in and be really efficient and take care of the football and do what he has to do to keep the 49ers offense on the field and in the end zone. He’s just as likely to be inaccurate and indecisive while turning the ball over two or three times. He can definitely do enough to win in Lambeau despite the injuries, but if he has to carry the offense in a shootout it seems very unlikely the 49ers win.
6. What are the 49ers’ biggest strengths entering this game?
Madson: Their run game is firing on all cylinders right now. Shanahan and offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel have been putting together some terrific designs, and the players are all executing at a really high level. Their defensive line is playing really well, too. I mentioned the depth earlier. They’re just relentless for all four quarters both rushing the passer and stopping the run. Their defensive line is good enough against the run to make teams one-dimensional, which is when their pass rush is most effective. The D-line and run game working in tandem make the 49ers really hard to beat.
7. What's Green Bay's biggest weakness?
Kruse: Probably the special teams. The Packers ranked 32nd in Rick Gosselin’s annual special teams rankings, and the stats match the eye test. They’ve been a disaster. The 49ers will remember back in Week 3 when a long kickoff return late in the first half jumpstarted the comeback. Stuff like that has been happening all season in Green Bay. For the most part, the Packers have overcome the problems on special teams, but one bad day for the third phase in the postseason can end it all. Also: the Packers weren’t great against the run down the stretch. The Ravens and Browns really gashed them. If the special teams and run defense don’t show up, the 49ers will have a real chance at the upset.
8. Do you expect to see more AJ Dillon or Aaron Jones on Sunday?
Kruse: I’d expect a healthy dose of both. If the Packers lead into the second half, Dillon could be the hammer. At 247 pounds, he’s not fun to tackle in the cold. Jones is such an underrated player and can do it all. Matt LaFleur has done a nice job of mixing both into the plan, both as runners and receivers. Don’t be surprised if they combine for 25 or more touches on Saturday night.
9. What are the 49ers’ biggest weaknesses entering this game?
Madson: Quarterback play certainly stands out as one of their weaknesses. Garoppolo is fine in a vacuum and he mostly excels at what the 49ers want him to do. However, when putting that up against what a player like Aaron Rodgers can do, suddenly the QB becomes more of a problem for San Francisco. Pass blocking on the right side of their offensive line is also a problem. RG Daniel Brunskill and RT Tom Compton are both good run blockers who struggle when asked to move backward. That duo is a one of the reasons the 49ers have a hard time in obvious passing situations.
10. Prediction time! Can the 49ers pull off the upset?
Kruse: They can, but they won’t. The Packers are 8-0 at home, will be playing in the bitter cold and have a remarkable advantage at quarterback. The 49ers can challenge the Packers in important ways, and I can see multiple ways they could pull off the upset, but the Packers are the biggest betting favorite in the divisional round for a reason. To come this far only to lose at Lambeau Field to a team with a battered quarterback would be an incredible letdown. I think it’ll be a dogfight for four quarters, but the Packers get one or two important takeaways and Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams end up being too much. 24-20, Packers.
Madson: Probably not. I’m not putting anything past this team at this point because they have a rock solid identity and they stick to it until it works. Green Bay at home coming off the bye week with Rodgers under center playing at this level just seems like too much for a team that goes into offensive lulls the way this 49ers team does. A quarter or quarter-and-a-half of limited offensive production is a death knell in games like this against teams as good as the Packers, and those seem to be a staple for San Francisco this year. Give me Green Bay in a close one. Packers 26, 49ers 21
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