10 More NJ Counties Backslide In Coronavirus Crisis: Here's Where

NEW JERSEY – A new report says key metrics in the coronavirus crisis have once again risen in 10 New Jersey counties, showing that the Garden State has backslid once again in its management of the pandemic. The coronavirus threat has now risen in all New Jersey counties over the past several weeks.

The state Department of Health's "COVID-19 Activity Level Report," which is issued weekly, says the coronavirus activity level rose from "low" to "moderate" over the past week in 10 more New Jersey counties.

New Jersey's statewide activity is at a "moderate" level, the DOH said, now that the daily case totals topped 1,000 daily cases for three consecutive days for the first time since May. Murphy announced an additional 1,036 cases and 13 more deaths on Tuesday.

There have now been 221,205 total cases and 14,425 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. Murphy, however, said he's not planning a reversal of reopenings despite the rising numbers. Read more: NJ Tops 1K Daily COVID-19 Cases Again But No Reopening 'Reversal'

If the Garden State gets any worse, state Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli said, New Jersey's solution will be "increased testing, contact tracing, isolation and quarantining."

Persichilli, speaking during a Monday news conference, said New Jersey is seeing widespread increase in cases not because to any specific outbreaks or reopenings, but due to "community spread." Parties, gatherings, daycare and farms, however, are viewed as "contributing" to the rise in cases, she said.

"I know we are all tired of COVID-19 and all the precautions necessary to prevent the spread of the disease and the restrictions we have endured," Persichilli said. "But as we approach the holiday season, now is the time to double down on social distancing, wearing face coverings and good hand hygiene."

As the weather gets colder and people move inside, she said, the risk of transmission will grow.

"Now is not the time to let your guard down," she said. "The virus has not stopped circulating."

Officials didn't say whether they believed the state was nearing the end of the first wave or if the second wave has begun. Persichilli said they never considered the first wave to be over.

The 10 counties that saw a rise were:

  • Bergen

  • Essex

  • Hudson

  • Hunterdon

  • Mercer

  • Morris

  • Passaic

  • Somerset

  • Sussex

  • Warren

Murphy said the new report provides regional metrics for health and safety risks "that have further guided our decision-making" in reopening New Jersey.

Indeed, the report was issued a month after New Jersey took some of its biggest reopening steps over the past two weeks, including the restart of schools, indoor dining, indoor amusements and movie theaters. Read more: NJ Prepares For Possible Second Coronavirus Wave As School Starts

By rising to a "moderate" level, state officials said, school districts in those counties may have to take more serious steps – such as quarantining or even shutting down schools – if a child shows the symptoms of COVID-19.

"If you're in a very low-risk district, then you don't need to treat it quite as harshly as if you're in a much higher transmission community where the risk of that person actually having COVID is much higher," said Edward Lifshitz, medical director for the state Department of Health.

Here is what the report says:

Key metrics rising in 10 counties

The report divides New Jersey into regions and assesses their rates of new cases, COVID-19-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The rate of COVID-like illness (CLI) rose by 31 percent in Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Warren counties and 39 percent in Bergen, Essex and Hudson counties. These illnesses are defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of other types of coronavirus symptoms.

The daily new COVID-19 case rate, per 100,000 people, rose by 37 percent in Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Warren and 26 percent in Bergen, Essex, Hudson counties.

The report divides New Jersey into six regions: Northwest, Northeast, Central West, Central East, Southwest and Southeast. It then looks at each region and assigns each a "current activity level" based on case rates, COVID-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The following is a breakdown of counties contained within each public health region: Northwest: Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Warren; Northeast: Bergen, Essex, Hudson; Central West: Hunterdon, Mercer, Somerset; Central East: Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Union; South West: Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem; South East: Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland.

Data

The state uses various date to determine the level of activity. Here they are:

  • Case rate (per 100,000) is calculated as a proportion of the population — specifically, daily new COVID cases for every 100,000 people. Case rate is monitored as a seven-day average.

  • COVID-like illness (CLI) is defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of coronavirus diagnosis codes. CLI is monitored as a seven-day weekly average.

  • Percent positivity is the percentage of total positive tests out of all COVID-19 tests performed. Percent positivity is monitored as a seven-day average.

  • The COVID-19 Activity Level Index (CALI) Score is calculated this way: In each region, each indicator is assigned a value based on the activity range it falls into; next, the values are averaged together and this rounded average gives the CALI Score; the statewide activity level is calculated by averaging the CALI Scores for the six regions.

Here is the data and map for each region, including their activity levels, for the week ending Oct. 10th:

Here is the map and data for the week ending Oct 3rd:

Here is the map and data for the week ending Sept. 26th:

Here is the map and data for the week ending Sept. 12th:

The state's COVID activity timeline

After three consecutive weeks at the "low" level, the DOH says New Jersey's statewide activity has been "moderate" for the past two.

The timeline shows that the state was at a moderate level for nearly four months. It was "high" in late in April and May, and "very high" in late March and early April.

The moderate label was first assigned before the state even publicly identified a case: February 15th.

Here is the timeline:



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This article originally appeared on the Point Pleasant Patch