VIRGINIA — New projections from the UVa's COVID-19 model identified coronavirus surges in 10 of 35 Virginia local health districts, but the model suggests hospital capacity won't be overwhelmed at least through August.
Weekly reports on UVa's model look at the current state of the pandemic in Virginia and make projections for a number of scenarios. Researchers are seeing cases surges from mid-June to early July in the health districts of Chesapeake, Hampton, Norfolk, Peninsula, Portsmouth, Three Rivers, Virginia Beach and Western Tidewater. Two other health districts, Thomas Jefferson and Pittsylvania-Danville, are considered tipped over to a surge.
Statewide, 940 additional coronavirus were reported on Saturday, bringing the cumulative total to 76,373 cases. There have been 7,147 total hospitalizations and 2,025 deaths, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
Despite new case increases largely in the Hampton Roads region, researchers do not believe Virginia's hospital capacity will be overwhelmed through the model projection window — Sept. 6. That projection is contingent on residents' own efforts to stop the spread of the virus. The model suggests Virginia's phased approach to reopening has prevented 659,034 coronavirus cases since May 15.
"It is crucial that Virginians clamp down now to prevent these surges from growing and spreading," Friday's UVa model report stated. "Governor Northam has announced increased enforcement of Phase III guidelines. But we all need to do our part to stop the spread. Cases are growing most rapidly in the 20-39 age group. Protect yourself and others by practicing social distancing and infection control."
According to VDH data, here is the age breakdown of cases:
Ages 0-9: 2,597
Ages 10-19: 5,706
Ages 20-29: 13,875
Ages 30-39: 14,106
Ages 40-49: 13,090
Ages 50-59: 11,219
Ages 60-69: 7,289
Ages 70-79: 3,818
Ages 80 and up: 3,836
Not reported: 837
Here is the age breakdown of deaths:
Ages 0-9: 0
Ages 10-19: 0
Ages 20-29: 4
Ages 30-39: 16
Ages 40-49: 54
Ages 50-59: 126
Ages 60-69: 298
Ages 70-79: 511
Ages 80 and up: 1,014
Not reported: 2
The statewide 7-day average of new cases has increased since July 8, but the same isn't true for the Northern Virginia region by itself. The region, once the epicenter of the crisis in Virginia, has experienced a stable 7-day average of new cases since mid-June. On Saturday, Northern Virginia had 208 of the state's 940 new cases — 17 in Alexandria, 22 in Arlington County, 67 in the Fairfax Health District, 20 in Loudoun County, and 82 in the Prince William Health District.
The latest 7-day average of positive tests in Virginia was 7.6 percent on July 14, the same percentage as the previous day. As of Saturday, 886,748 tests have been completed in Virginia, an increase of 12,961 tests from Friday.
Current hospitalizations of COVID-19 patients totaled 1,166 on Saturday, down from 1,171 on Friday. According to the Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association, 9,976 coronavirus patients have been discharged from Virginia hospitals, up from 9,883 on Friday.
The COVID-19 hospitalizations include 108 patients on ventilators and 254 in the intensive care units. Among all hospital patients, there are 626 of 3,080 available ventilators being used, or 20 percent. No hospitals report difficulty obtaining personal protective equipment or other medical supplies.
Here are the latest case updates for our coverage areas from Friday to Saturday:
Alexandria: 2,540 cases, 255 hospitalizations, 56 deaths; increase of 17 cases
Arlington County: 2,726 cases, 427 hospitalizations, 135 deaths; increase of 22 cases
Fairfax County: 14,798 cases, 1,789 hospitalizations, 508 deaths; increase of 67 cases and two hospitalizations
Fairfax City: 73 cases, nine hospitalizations, seven deaths; increase of three hospitalizations
Falls Church: 54 cases, 10 hospitalizations, seven deaths; no change
Loudoun County: 4,596 cases, 317 hospitalizations, 103 deaths; increase of 20 cases, two hospitalizations and one death
Manassas: 1,521 cases, 111 hospitalizations, 20 deaths; increase of 10 cases, one hospitalization and one death
Manassas Park: 470 cases, 48 hospitalizations, seven deaths; increase of two cases
Prince William County: 8,104 cases, 724 hospitalizations, 161 deaths; increase of 70 cases and one hospitalization
Fredericksburg: 294 cases, 29 hospitalizations, no deaths; increase of four cases
Spotsylvania County: 1,136 cases, 85 hospitalizations, 32 deaths; increase of 12 cases and one hospitalization
Stafford County: 1,112 cases, 110 hospitalizations, six deaths; increase of 11 cases and two hospitalizations