100 days: What Pritzker, Bailey need to do for victory

In about 100 days, the leaves will be crunching, and Election Day 2022 will be here in Illinois. On Nov. 8, Republican challenger and state Sen. Darren Bailey, R-Xenia, will face Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker in a race mired with major issues and big money.

Kent Redfield, a retired professor with the University of Illinois and the Institute for Government and Public Affairs, sees a race playing along three regions in the state: Chicago, downstate and the suburbs.

Two regions − Chicago and downstate − are essentially wrapped up for Pritzker and Bailey respectively. The battleground areas, Redfield says, are the suburbs primarily in the collar counties surrounding Chicago.

"You can make a difference there," he said. "You can grow or shrink."

More:8-year-old boy and 3-year-old girl die after families contacted by Illinois DCFS

At a press conference held earlier this week, Bailey stood before the Department of Children and Family Services building to, as he put it, to "discuss problems." This tactic, one where he attacked Pritzker and DCFS Director Marc Smith for the department's shortcomings, is the playbook Redfield projects will carry out in months to come.

"Bailey wants people to focus on what are the specific problems in terms of governing in Illinois and what are Pritzker's failings," he said.

A similar strategy was used by former Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner, said Redfield, whose campaign attacking Democrat weaknesses lead to the unseating of then-Gov. Pat Quinn in 2014.

What he will try to avoid is past comments on abortion, where he previously supported a complete ban before backing away from that stance.

The overturning of Roe v. Wadeby the Supreme Court and ongoing legislation efforts regarding marriage equality and contraceptives could energize women's rights and LGBTQ+ groups around Pritzker, Redfield said.

Redfield said Pritzker also will continue trying to portray Bailey, endorsed by former President Donald Trump, as radical. Such was the method of primary ads from the Democratic Governors Association which labeled the Republican candidate as "too extreme."

During that conference, points of emphasis made by Bailey included high numbers vacant positions within DCFS, improper vaccination protocols, and two deaths − one 8-year-old boy and one 3-year-old girl − that after DCFS contacted the families.

"I don't know what world that JB lives in, but this is not progress," said Bailey on Tuesday in front of the DCFS building on Monroe Street. "This is incompetence of tragic proportions."

The State Journal-Register attempted to speak with the candidate to discuss how the department would operate if he was elected. After several phone calls, emails and text messages, there was no response.

Bailey sits on the state Child Care Accessibility & Early Childhood Education Committee, which received a $142 million request from DCFS in the previous legislative session to "do their job more adequately," he said.

According to Bailey, the department would already have $12 million unspent by the end of Fiscal Year 2022, which ended July 1. In FY 2021, DCFS had a remainder of $28 million unspent.

"That is gross negligence," said Bailey. "I asked the question 'Where this money went?' I got no reply. I asked the question 'Why it wasn't spent?' I got no reply."

"This administration under Marc Smith's leadership has failed not only the organization, but the families and children in this state."

Bailey's chances of working with DCFS as governor, however, are met with him trailing in campaign funds and recent post-primary poll numbers.

The Republican had less than $365,000 in his campaign fund as of June 28, per filings submitted to the Illinois Board of Elections. Pritzker, who is financing his own campaign, had $60.8 million available in the his most recent filing as of July 15.

According to Victory Research, Pritzker also holds a near 10-point lead over Bailey in its poll released last week and dominating the Chicago area.

Of those surveyed, 78% in Chicago said they would vote for Pritzker compared to 13% choosing Bailey. The Republican challenger, however had leads in the central, western and southern parts of the state.

Bailey, who has referred to Chicago as a "hellhole," did however pick up an endorsement from John Catanzara, president of Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 7, on Wednesday.

Contact Patrick Keck: 312-549-9340, pkeck@gannett.com, twitter.com/@pkeckreporter

This article originally appeared on State Journal-Register: Local political expert takes look at Illinois governor race