11th District voter turnout in Asheville, WNC among highest: US House election data

Early voting turnout in Western North Carolina's congressional district is among the highest in the state, despite the 11th District race between Democrat Jasmine Beach-Ferrara and Republican Chuck Edwards predicted to be less competitive than other U.S. House contests.

Through Nov. 3, a total of 28.6% of registered voters in the 11th District's 15 counties had ballots accepted through mail-in and early in-person voting, according to state data analyzed by Western Carolina University political science professor Chris Cooper.

That was second only to 28.8% in the Fourth District, which includes Durham and features a race between Democrat Valerie Foushee and Republican Courtney Geels. Like the 11th District, that contest has no incumbent.

At first, reports had shown early voting numbers lagging statewide. But that had changed as of Nov. 4, with mail-in and early in-person voting surpassing this same time in 2018, the last midterm election, state officials said.

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"It says that NC-11 voters are engaged, particularly in early voting," Cooper said Nov. 4.

The last day for early-in person voting was Nov. 5. Mail-in ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 8, which is Election Day and when many other voters will come to the polls.

The enthusiasm comes even with the House race listed as "solid" or "safe" Republican, by Ballotpedia, which uses analysis by the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Inside Elections. The district is not considered one of the battleground races that could determine the balance of power in Congress. Democrats currently hold 220 of the 435 House seats with many expecting them to lose that majority.

North Carolina's GOP-controlled General Assembly faced criticism for newly drawn House districts that courts ruled an illegal gerrymander. Legislative leaders were forced to redraw the districts but are now fighting the issue in the U.S. Supreme Court.

Leslie Carey, chair of the Democrat's 11th District party organization, noted the new maps, which should take some advantage away from Edwards. She also pushed back against the idea that the district, which is the state's most westerly, is not competitive.

"We also have a more fairly mapped district as of 2021, and NC-11 could very well now be considered a battleground," Carey said. "Additionally, we’ve seen outstanding and united organizing and a ground game this district has never before seen from Jasmine’s campaign, as well as outstanding Democratic candidates up and down the ballot, along with dedicated support from our Democratic county parties."

GOP 11th District Chair John Anglin could not be reached for comment. Vice Chair David Eachus referred questions to Anglin.

Often, high turnout is seen as a boon for Democrats. But Cooper called that "One of the biggest myths in American politics."

"In reality, neither Democrats nor Republicans consistently benefit from higher turnout. The key for Beach-Ferrara is, of course, whether she turns out more Democratic voters and minority voters than in previous years," the WCU political science professor said.

But thus far, the patterns of who is voting did not appear radically different, suggesting the majority of voters are again leaning Republican, he said.

In past elections, early voting has seen large numbers of Democrats with many Republicans waiting to come out on Election Day.

Of the early 11th District voters, 34% were registered Democrats, 30% are Republicans and 35% are unaffiliated, according to Cooper.

In 2018, the last midterm election, 33% of those voting early were Democrats, 26% were Republicans and 31% were unaffiliated.

Broken down by gender, 52% are female and 44% male, compared to 2018 when 53% female and 46% male.

Joel Burgess has lived in WNC for more than 20 years, covering politics, government and other news. He's written award-winning stories on topics ranging from gerrymandering to police use of force. Got a tip? Contact Burgess at jburgess@citizentimes.com, 828-713-1095 or on Twitter @AVLreporter. Please help support this type of journalism with a subscription to the Citizen Times. 

This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: 11th District voter turnout in Asheville, WNC among highest: data