2 debates that could decide the Senate

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THE BIG IDEA: 2 debates that could decide the Senate

On Friday, Oct. 14, Republican Herschel Walker will debate Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia. Less than two weeks later, on Oct. 25, Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman will face off against Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania.

It’s not much of a stretch to say that these one-off debates could decide which party controls the Senate next year. In Georgia, gaffe-prone Walker will need to prove he can go toe to toe with Warnock, who has been narrowly leading Walker in most polls. Warnock, meanwhile, will have to fend off attacks on his liberal voting record in the conservative-leaning purple state.

Walker will also be under the microscope for how he responds to the series of scandals that have engulfed his campaign. National Republicans are sticking with Walker — not that they have much of a choice — but are worried that allegations that he paid for an abortion combined with his frequent verbal stumbles could sink his candidacy.

Fetterman, who suffered a stroke earlier this year, will also be closely watched when he debates Oz. The Democrat has seen his lead in the race shrink in recent weeks amid ongoing questions about his health. He’s also been dealing with a pummeling on the airwaves from Oz and his allies, who have attacked Fetterman’s approach to crime. And an interview with MSNBC this week did little to quell worries that Fetterman is still struggling with the aftermath of his stroke.

Oz, a celebrity doctor and first-time candidate, will need to rebut ongoing charges that he has little connection to Pennsylvania. Over the summer, Oz released a much-mocked viral video in which he attempted to make a point about high grocery prices by buying crudités at a store he identified as “Wegners.” The erstwhile New Jerseyan was actually in a Redner’s, a Pennsylvania grocery chain, which he appeared to mix up with another regional chain, Wegmans. (Oz later blamed exhaustion for the flub.)

Pennsylvania and Georgia are also home to two high-profile races for governor. In Georgia, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has maintained a consistent lead over Democrat Stacey Abrams. And in Pennsylvania, Attorney General Josh Shapiro appears to be way ahead of his Republican challenger, hard-right state Sen. Doug Mastriano.

Oz and Warnock will likely need some help from ticket-splitting swing voters. Oz wants to win over enough Shapiro voters to score a win over Fetterman in what’s expected to be a tight contest. Warnock is trying to pull off a similar strategy in Georgia, where he’s been polling ahead of Abrams.

Fetterman and Walker have also tried to manage expectations for their debate performances. In Fetterman’s case, that has involved explaining that he is still somewhat impaired by his stroke. Walker has been more blunt, telling the Savannah Morning News last month that he’s “a country boy” who’s “not that smart.”

Warnock, Walker continued, “is smart and wears these nice suits. So, he is going to show up and embarrass me at the debate Oct. 14, and I'm just waiting to show up and I will do my best.”

What’s at stake: As of now, control of the Senate is likely to be decided by the contests in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia. The Nevada race features two experienced candidates in Republican Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general, and Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto. But Masto and Laxalt have so far refused to agree to a debate.

POLLS, POLLS, POLLS

If you want people to like you, try becoming a moderate Republican governor of a blue state. A new Morning Consult survey found that Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Phil Scott of Vermont and Larry Hogan of Maryland are America’s three most popular governors. Baker and Hogan are on their way out this year, however, and only Scott is running for reelection.

Morning Consult also had some good news for Democratic governors running for reelection, with Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, Nevada’s Steve Sisolak, Minnesota’s Tim Walz, New York’s Kathy Hochul and Kansas’s Laura Kelly all showing approval ratings at 50% or higher.

Meanwhile, a new Marist poll has Colorado Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet leading his Republican challenger, businessman John O’Dea, 48% to 41%. A Deseret News poll finds Utah GOP Sen. Mike Lee barely ahead of his opponent, former CIA officer Evan McMullin, who is backed by Democrats but running as an independent. And despite Walker’s recent struggles, a new Emerson College survey has him just two points behind Warnock.

SOUND LIKE A NERD

Midterm elections have a mixed record of predicting what will happen in subsequent presidential contests. In the “Republican Revolution” of 1994, the GOP picked up an astonishing 52 House seats, eight Senate seats and roughly 500 state legislative seats. Tom Foley, a Washington Democrat, became the first-ever House speaker to lose reelection. Newt Gingrich, a Georgia Republican, became the GOP’s first speaker since the Eisenhower administration.

For a moment, President Bill Clinton, who was elected in 1992 with a meager 43% of the vote, looked deeply vulnerable. Voters had issued a stunning rebuke to his agenda. But Clinton outmaneuvered his new Republican opponents, moderated his policies and won reelection in a landslide two years later.

There’s no shortage of examples of a president’s party having a bad midterm only to triumph in a presidential race. In the 1980s, a time remembered by today’s Republicans as a golden age of conservatism, Democrats scored significant midterm victories in 1982 and 1986, but that didn’t stop Republicans from winning the presidency in 1984 and 1988. President Barack Obama’s Democrats were thrown to the mat in 2010, but he was reelected in 2012.

Midterms matter, and if Republicans win one or both houses of Congress this year, they will be a major impediment to President Biden’s agenda. But know hope, Democrats: Even if the GOP pulls off a big win in a few weeks, that doesn’t mean it will be any easier for them to recapture the White House in 2024.

SLEEPER RACE ALERT

Oklahoma, a longtime Republican stronghold, just might elect a Democratic governor next month. A series of recent polls indicates that Joy Hofmeister, a lifelong Republican who became a Democrat last year, is within striking distance of GOP Gov. Kevin Stitt.

As the superintendent of public instruction, Hofmeister is the top education official in Oklahoma and the only Democrat to hold statewide office there. And her allies are heavily outspending Stitt, who has been slow to go on the attack.

Hofmeister, who identifies as “personally pro-life” but objects to Oklahoma’s strict abotion ban, got an additional boost this week when the state’s five largest Native American tribes took the unusual step of endorsing her. This did not sit well with Stitt, a member of the Cherokee Nation who nonetheless has a contentious relationship with the state’s large Native population.

But Democrats might be wise to not get their hopes up. In 2018, when Stitt first ran for governor, polls indicated he was in a relatively tight race with his Democratic opponent. In the end, however, Stitt won in a landslide.

APPOINTMENT VIEWING

Republican J.D. Vance will debate Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan on Oct. 17. It will be the second debate between the candidates for Ohio’s open Senate seat, which is being vacated by Republican Sen. Rob Portman. And on Oct. 18, Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio will debate his Democratic challenger, Rep. Val Demings.

The Democratic candidates have been polling well in both contests, although most political observers give Rubio and Vance the edge in their respective races.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“From the perspective of the United States, I think the United States is doing very well.” — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to CNBC on Wednesday, one day before a Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation report once again showed prices rising more than expected.