The 2016 U.S. Presidential Race: A Cheat Sheet
So far, this presidential campaign has seen first-tier candidates like Scott Walker drop out—guys who once seemed like they could win the nomination, but decided it wasn’t in the cards. We’ve seen second-tier candidates leave, too: People like Lindsay Graham, who as a high-profile U.S. senator from a crucial early state might have been a strong candidate on paper, but who no one expected to win.
And now, finally, a third-tier candidate is dropping out. James Pindell of the Boston Globe reports that George Pataki is calling supporters and telling them he’s leaving the race. You may be thinking one of two things. If you're a normal person, it’s probably, Who is George Pataki again? If you’re a political junkie, it’s probably a snide joke about how few calls that should take.
Pataki—we’ll jog your memory—is the former Republican governor of New York, who was in office on September 11. This experience was his major selling point, and it was even less effective for him than it was for Rudy Giuliani in the 2008 GOP primary. Pataki never got any momentum to speak of, and never managed to make the cut for the main debates, being relegated to the kid’s table instead. (Even then, he failed to make the cut for the Fox Business debate.) As of this writing, Pataki scores a perfect 0.0 in RealClearPolitics’ polling average.
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Why did Pataki do so poorly? Dylan Matthews notes that he was the three-term governor of the nation’s third-largest state. Does that account for nothing? But squint at Pataki hard enough (very hard) and he can be seen as a caricature of what has gone wrong for a slew of other Republican governors who have either left the race or are struggling in the polls.
Like Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and perhaps Chris Christie, Pataki was simply more moderate and establishmentarian than the Republican Party of 2012. The ideas and approach that got him elected in a blue state like New York—he's pro-choice!—were never going to sell in a GOP primary, especially one where voters want aggressive change-making, not quietly plodding and effective governance. Like Bush, Bobby Jindal, Kasich, and Scott Walker, he didn’t have the charisma to compete with stars like Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz. Like Bush, Rick Perry, and Mike Huckabee, he seemed like an old-fashioned time-traveler from a different presidential cycle, at sea in today’s Republican Party of young, conservative communicators. Like Jim Gilmore—yep, he’s still ostensibly in the race—no one had idea who he was or gave him any money.
The paradox of the third-tier candidates is that it doesn’t make any sense for them to run for president—they’re never going to win—but there’s not much reason to drop out. But hey, it’s almost a new year, and maybe Pataki’s resolution is not to waste time on quixotic quests that mostly earn him the mockery of snotty political journalists like yours truly. That’s certainly more achievable than most gym-related goals.
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Pataki’s departure brings the Republican field down to 12 contenders. With so many candidates in the mix, it’s tough to keep track of it all. To help out with that, this cheat sheet on the state of the presidential field will be periodically updated throughout the campaign season. Here’s how things look right now.
* * *
The Republicans
Michael Vadon
George Pataki
Who is he? Pataki ousted incumbent Mario Cuomo in 1994 and served three terms as governor of New York.
Is he running? No. He announced his entry on May 28 but will reportedly drop out on December 29.
Who wanted him to run? Apparently no one: His RealClearPolitics average by the time he dropped out was a neat 0.0. Establishment Northeastern Republicans once held significant sway over the party, but those days have long since passed.
Could have have won the nomination? Nope.
Did his website have a good 404 page? No.
Gage SkidmoreJim Gilmore
Who is he? Right? Gilmore was governor of Virginia from 1998 to 2002. Before that, he chaired the Republican National Committee for a year. In 2008, he ran for Senate in Virginia and lost to Mark Warner by 31 points.
Is he running? Yes. He filed his papers on July 29.
Who wants him to run? Who knows?
Can he win? Nah.
Does his website have a good 404 page? Holy Freudian slip, Batman!
WikimediaJohn Kasich
Who is he? The current Ohio governor ran once before, in 2000, after a stint as Republican budget guru in the House. Between then and his election in 2010, he worked at Lehman Brothers. Molly Ball wrote a definitive profile in April.
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Is he running? Yes. His announcement was July 21 at Ohio State University in Columbus.
Who wants him to run? Kasich’s pitch: He’s got better fiscal-conservative bona fides than any other candidate in the race, he’s proven he can win blue-collar voters, and he’s won twice in a crucial swing state.
Can he win the nomination? Kasich seems to have firmly established himself as a lower-middle-tier candidate: On the main debate stages, but nowhere near the nomination. His strategy has long been to win New Hampshire, where he is ahead of Jeb Bush (but behind four others), but the surge of Chris Christie—another moderate-ish, technocratic governor—in the Granite State is bad news for Kasich’s nomination hopes.
What else do we know? John Kasich bought a Roots CD and hated it so much he threw it out of his car window. John Kasich hated the Coen brothers’ classic Fargo so much he tried to get his local Blockbuster to quit renting it. George Will laughed at him. John Kasich is the Bill Brasky of philistinism. John Kasich probably hated that skit, too.
Does his website have a good 404 page? Nope.
David ShankboneChris Christie
Who is he? What’s it to you, buddy? The combative New Jerseyan is in his second term as governor and previously served as a U.S. attorney.
Is he running? Christie kicked off his campaign June 30 at Livingston High School, his alma mater.
Who wants him to run? Moderate and establishment Republicans who don’t like Bush or Kasich; big businessmen, led by Home Depot founder Ken Langone.
Can he win the nomination? Doubtful. The tide of opinion had turned against Christie even before the "Bridgegate" indictments. Citing his horrific favorability numbers, FiveThirtyEight bluntly puns that “Christie's access lanes to the GOP nomination are closed.” But since snagging the endorsement of the New Hampshire Union Leader, he’s seen a nice boomlet.
Does his website have a good 404 page? We would have gone with the GIF, but sure.
Gage SkidmoreDonald Trump
Who is he? The real-estate developer and reality-TV star fired TV personality almost certainly isn’t worth as much as he wants you to think he is.
Is he running? And how.
Who wants him to run? A shocking portion of the Republican primary electorate; Democrats; white supremacists. The rest of the Republican field, along with its intellectual luminaries, however, seem horrified.
Can he win the nomination? We’ve heard over and over again that he has no chance. But after months, he’s still leading the field, so ...
What else do we know? He cheats at golf, probably.
Gage SkidmoreJeb Bush
Who is he? The brother and son of presidents, he served two terms as governor of Florida, from 1999 to 2007.
Is he running? Yes, as of June 15.
Who wants him to run? Establishment Republicans; George W. Bush; major Wall Street donors.
Can he win the nomination? Boy, can he? Bush still has a lot of money behind him—mostly in his super PAC, Right to Rise—and his campaigning seems to have improved slightly on its low-energy nadir, but at some point he has to start looking like a real candidate. That hasn’t happened yet.
Does his website have a good 404 page? Yes—y en español también.
Gage SkidmoreRick Santorum
Who is he? Santorum represented Pennsylvania in the Senate from 1995 until his defeat in 2006. He was the runner-up for the GOP nomination in 2012.
Is he running? Yes, with a formal announcement on May 27.
Who wants him to run? Social conservatives. The former Pennsylvania senator didn't have an obvious constituency in 2012, yet he still went a long way, and Foster Friess, who bankrolled much of Santorum's campaign then, is ready for another round.
Can he win the nomination? Nah. As much as Santorum feels he deserves more respect for his 2012 showing, neither voters nor the press seem inclined to give it to him, and he remains trapped in the basement.
Does his website have a good 404 page? No.
Gage SkidmoreMike Huckabee
Who is he? An ordained preacher, former governor of Arkansas, and Fox News host, he ran a strong campaign in 2008, finishing third, but sat out 2012.
Is he running? Yes. He kicked off the campaign May 5.
Who wants him to run? Social conservatives; evangelical Christians.
Can he win the nomination? No. Evangelicals have flocked to Ben Carson and Ted Cruz instead. Huckabee’s answer has been to play as a populist, but that has its own pitfalls: He faces fire from strict conservative groups for tax hikes while he was governor.
Does his website have a good 404 page? It’s pretty good.
Gage SkidmoreBen Carson
Who is he? A celebrated former head of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins, Carson became a conservative folk hero after a broadside against Obamacare at the 2013 National Prayer Breakfast.
Is he running? Yes. He announced May 4.
Who wants him to run? Grassroots conservatives, who have boosted him up near the top of polls, even as Republican insiders cringe. Carson has an incredibly appealing personal story—a voyage from poverty to pathbreaking neurosurgery—and none of the taint of politics.
Can he win the nomination? History weighs heavily against Carson: Not since Dwight Eisenhower has either party nominated anyone without prior elected experience for the presidency. Nonetheless, Carson has quietly shown impressive staying power and is running second or third in national polls. One challenge is that his politics are eclectic unto near incoherence, and he has a tendency to do things like compare ISIS to the Founding Fathers.
Does his website have a good 404 page? No.
Gage SkidmoreCarly Fiorina
Who is she? Fiorina rose through the ranks to become CEO of Hewlett-Packard from 1999 to 2005, before being ousted in an acrimonious struggle. She advised John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign and unsuccessfully challenged Senator Barbara Boxer of California in 2010.
Is she running? Yes, as of a May 4 announcement.
Who wants her to run? It isn’t clear exactly what Fiorina’s constituency is, but she’s a business-friendly candidate with a talent for a sharp turn of phrase or jab.
Can she win the nomination? Fiorina went from also-ran to huge story on the strength of her first two debate performances. Since then, however, her momentum seems to have faded. Her first round as a candidate, against Barbara Boxer for Senate in 2010, didn’t turn out so well, so the question is how well she learned the lessons of the licking and can turn them into a more successful campaign.
What else do we know? Fiorina’s 2010 Senate race produced two of the most entertaining and wacky political ads ever, "Demon Sheep" and the nearly eight-minute epic commonly known as "The Boxer Blimp."
Does her website have a good 404 page? No.
WikimediaMarco Rubio
Who is he? A second-generation Cuban-American and former speaker of the Florida House, Rubio was catapulted to national fame in the 2010 Senate election, after he unexpectedly upset Governor Charlie Crist to win the GOP nomination.
Is he running? Yes—he announced on April 13.
Who wants him to run? Rubio enjoys establishment support, and has sought to position himself as the candidate of an interventionist foreign policy.
Could he win the nomination? Rubio finally seemed ready to deliver on his potential starting in November or so, when breakout debate performances pushed him into the spotlight. As Jeb Bush falters, Rubio has cleaned up with major GOP donors. Many analysts have dubbed him the favorite for the nod, but he still has to figure out a way to get back Donald Trump and—in what looks tougher every day—Ted Cruz.
Does his website have a good 404 page? It’s decent.
WikimediaRand Paul
Who is he? An ophthalmologist and son of libertarian icon Ron Paul, he rode the 2010 Republican wave to the Senate, representing Kentucky.
Is he running? Yes, as of April 7.
Who wants him to run? Ron Paul fans; Tea Partiers; libertarians; civil libertarians; non-interventionist Republicans.
Can he win the nomination? Once tabbed by Time as the most interesting man in politics, he has failed to elicit much interest from voters. He almost missed the cut for the December 15 debate, and it was reported that he might have dropped out if he had been excluded. That means it’s only a matter of time, right?
Does his website have a good 404 page? No.
WikimediaTed Cruz
Who is he? Cruz served as deputy assistant attorney general in the George W. Bush administration and was appointed Texas solicitor general in 2003. In 2012, he ran an insurgent campaign to beat a heavily favored establishment Republican for Senate.
Is he running? Yes. He launched his campaign March 23 at Liberty University in Virginia.
Who wants him to run? Hardcore conservatives; Tea Partiers who worry that Rand Paul is too dovish on foreign policy; social conservatives.
Can he win the nomination? Once dismissed as too conservative and too hated by even fellow Republicans, Cruz’s stock has risen over the course of the fall—though his weaknesses still remain. The case for a Cruz nomination hinges on Donald Trump and Ben Carson collapsing and their support shifting to him; it’s already happening with Carson. He’s also extremely well-funded, and he’s well acquainted with running and willing as an underdog (as his performance in the race for Senate showed). His campaign imagines the race coming down to him and Marco Rubio.
Does his website have a good 404 page? No.
* * *
The Democrats
WikimediaHillary Clinton
Who is she? As if we have to tell you, but: She’s a trained attorney; former secretary of State in the Obama administration; former senator from New York; and former first lady.
Is she running? Yes.
Who wants her to run? Most of the Democratic Party.
Can she win the nomination? A better question is whether she can lose it.
What else do we know? The real puzzler, after so many years with Clinton on the national scene, is what we don't know. Here are 10 central questions to ask about the Hillary Clinton campaign.
Does her website have a good 404 page? If you’re tolerant of bad puns and ’90s ’80s outfits, the answer is yes.
WikimediaMartin O'Malley
Who is he? He’s a former governor of Maryland and mayor of Baltimore.
Is he running? Yes. He announced his campaign on May 30.
Who wants him to run? Not clear. He has some of the leftism of Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, but without the same grassroots excitement.
Can he win the nomination? Probably not. Why O’Malley—who says all the right progressive things—can’t gain any momentum among progressives who seem eager for Sanders, for Warren, really for anyone but Clinton, is a fascinating conundrum. Recently, he has feuded with Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, accusing the party apparatus of being in the tank for Clinton.
What else do we know? Have you heard that he plays in a Celtic rock band? You have? Oh.
Does his website have a good 404 page? No.
WikimediaBernie Sanders
Who is he? A self-professed socialist, Sanders represented Vermont in the U.S. House from 1991 to 2007, when he won a seat in the Senate.
Is he running? Yes. He announced April 30.
Who wants him to run? Far-left Democrats; Brooklyn-accent aficionados; progressives who worry that a second Clinton administration would be far too friendly to the wealthy.
Can he win the nomination? When Sanders launched his campaign, this question seemed more or less beside the point. That’s no longer true: Sanders is running neck and neck or even ahead of Clinton in key early primary states and regularly drawing larger crowds than her. It remains extremely difficult to see him winning the nomination—as Dems from Howard Dean to George McGovern can remind you, primary voters tend to gravitate to “electable” general-election candidates alone.
Does his website have a good 404 page? Yes, and it is quintessentially Sanders.
* * *
Out of the Running
Republicans
Wikimedia
Lindsey Graham
Who is he? A senator from South Carolina, he’s John McCain’s closest ally in the small caucus of Republicans who are moderate on many issues but very hawkish on foreign policy.
Is he running? No sir. Graham kicked off the campaign June 1 but suspended it on December 21.
Who wanted him to run? John McCain, naturally. Senator Kelly Ayotte, possibly. Joe Lieberman, maybe?
Could he have won the nomination? No. But he had some fun in losing it.
What else do we know? Graham promised to have a rotating first lady if he wins. We were rooting for Lana del Rey.
Gage Skidmore
Bobby Jindal
Who is he? A Rhodes Scholar, he’s the outgoing governor of Louisiana. He previously served in the U.S. House.
Is he running? No. He kicked off his campaign on June 24 but suspended it on November 17.
Who wanted him to run? It’s was hard to say. Jindal assiduously courted conservative Christians, both with a powerful conversion story (he was raised Hindu but converted to Catholicism in high school) and policies (after other governors reversed course, he charged forward with a religious-freedom law). But he still trailed other social conservatives like Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee.
Could he have won the nomination? No. Jindal never gained traction at the national level, faced an overcrowded field of social conservatives, and his stewardship of Louisiana came in for harsh criticism even from staunch fiscal conservatives.
What else do we know? In 1994, he wrote an article called “Physical Dimensions of Spiritual Warfare,” in which he described a friend’s apparent exorcism.
Does his website have a good 404 page? Meh. Good joke, but past its expiration date.
Gage Skidmore
Rick Perry
Who is he? George W. Bush’s successor as governor of Texas, he entered the 2012 race with high expectations, but sputtered out quickly. He left office in 2014 as the Lone Star State’s longest-serving governor.
Is he running? Yes. He announced on June 4. Perry dropped out of the race on September 11.
Who wanted him to run? Bueller?
Could he have won the nomination? No. Perry promoters insisted that Rick 2016 was a polished, smart campaigner, totally different from the meandering, spacey Perry of 2012. It didn’t seemed to matter in this field. Perry had to quit paying his staff in South Carolina and New Hampshire, and was down to a single staffer in Iowa when he dropped out.
Does his website have a good 404 page? That depends. Is this an “oops” joke? If so, yes.
Gage Skidmore
Sarah Palin
Who is she? If you have to ask now, you must not have been around in 2008. That’s when John McCain selected the then-unknown Alaska governor as his running mate. After the ticket lost, she resigned her term early and became a television personality.
Is she running? No, despite a bizarre speech in January that made a compelling case both ways.
Who wants her to run? Palin still has diehard grassroots fans, but there are fewer than ever.
Can she win the nomination? No.
When will she announce? It doesn't matter.
Gage Skidmore
Mitt Romney
Who is he? The Republican nominee in 2012 was also governor of Massachusetts and a successful businessman.
Is he running? Probably not, but who knows! He announced in late January that he would step aside, but now New York claims that the Trump boom has him reconsidering.
Who wanted him to run? Former staffers; prominent Mormons; Hillary Clinton's team. Romney polled well, but it's hard to tell what his base would have been. Republican voters weren't exactly ecstatic about him in 2012, and that was before he ran a listless, unsuccessful campaign. Party leaders and past donors were skeptical at best of a third try.
Could he have won the nomination? He proved the answer was yes, but it didn't seem likely to happen again.
Gage Skidmore
John Bolton
Who is he? A strident critic of the UN and leading hawk, he was George W. Bush’s ambassador to the UN for 17 months.
Is he running? Nope. After announcing his announcement, in the style of the big-time candidates, he posted on Facebook that he wasn’t running.
Who wanted him to run? Even among super-hawks, he didn’t seem to be a popular pick, likely because he had no political experience.
Could he have won the nomination? They say anything is possible in politics, but this would test the rule. A likelier outcome could be a plum foreign-policy role in a hawkish GOP presidency.
Gage Skidmore
Scott Walker
Who is he? Elected governor of Wisconsin in 2010, Walker earned conservative love and liberal hate for his anti-union policies. In 2013, he defeated a recall effort, and he won reelection the following year.
Is he running? No. Walker dropped out of the race on September 21.
Who wanted him to run? Walker was a favorite of conservatives who detest the labor movement because of his union-busting in Wisconsin. He attracted interest from the Koch brothers, and some establishment Republicans saw him as the perfect marriage of executive know-how, business-friendly credentials, and social conservatism without culture-warrior baggage.
Could he have won the nomination? For months, Walker was considered—along with Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio—a top-tier contender for the nomination. Hurricane Trump hurt all three, but none more than Walker. After largely fading from view during the second presidential debate, he polled below 1 percent in a national CNN poll. Perhaps a radically different campaign would have produced a different result, but Walker didn’t seem ready for national primetime.
Did his website have a good 404 page? Aye, matey.
* * *
Democrats
WikimediaLawrence Lessig
Who is he? Lessig is a professor at Harvard Law School, political activist, and occasional Atlantic contributor.
Is he running? No. Having announced a run in early September, he dropped out on November 2.
Who wanted him to run? Lessig’s campaign was designed to cater almost exclusively to the many Americans who are upset about the influence of money in politics. He pitched himself as a “referendum president” who would pass his proposed Citizens Equality Act of 2017, which would enact universal voting registration, campaign-finance limits, and anti-gerrymandering provisions.
Could he have won the nomination? No. In dropping out, he cited his inability to break into the Democratic debates, but given his lack of electoral experience, his idiosyncratic platform, and the track record of his Mayday PAC in the 2014 election, he never really had a shot.
What else do we know? In a season 6 episode of The West Wing, a fictional Lessig (played by Christopher Lloyd) worked with the White House to write a new constitution for Belarus.
Does his website have a good 404 page? “Sorry, we’re too busy fixing democracy to design a clever 404 page!” You have time now!
Steven Senne / APLincoln Chafee
Who is he? The son of beloved Rhode Island politician John Chafee, Linc took his late father’s seat in the U.S. Senate, serving as a Republican. He was governor, first as an independent and then as a Democrat.
Is he running? No. Chafee announced his run on June 3, but ended it October 23.
Who wanted him to run? You can meet all 10 of them in this great NPR piece.
Could he have won the nomination? No. Chafee’s showing in the first debate was so bad that even Wolf Blitzer begged him to get out for his own reputation’s sake.
Does his website have a good 404 page? No.
WikimediaJoe Biden
Who is he? Biden is vice president, and the foremost American advocate for aviator sunglasses and passenger rail.
Is he running? No. After lengthy deliberation, Biden ruled out a run on October 21.
Who wanted him to run? The original driving force for the run seems to have been the late Beau Biden, along with his brother Hunter. An outside group called Draft Biden (slogan: “I’m Ridin’ With Biden”) tried to coax him in.
Could he have won the nomination? It’s highly doubtful. Even when Hillary Clinton was at her weakest, she had huge organizational advantages. And past presidential campaign showed that Biden, while compelling, could be an undisciplined, self-defeating candidate.
WikimediaJim Webb
Who is he? Webb is a Vietnam War hero, author, and former secretary of the Navy. He served as a senator from Virginia from 2007 to 2013.
Is he running? Not at the moment. Webb launched his bid July 2 but dropped it October 20. He might yet mount an independent campaign.
Who wants him to run? Dovish Democrats; socially conservative, economically populist Democrats; the Anybody-But-Hillary camp.
Could he have won the nomination? No. He’s simply more conservative than most Democrats, out of step with the party on racial issues, and ill at ease on the stump.
What else do we know? Read Webb’s longtime friend James Fallows on why he wanted Webb in the race.
Does his website have a good 404 page? No.
WikimediaElizabeth Warren
Who is she? Warren has taken an improbable path from Oklahoma, to Harvard Law School, to progressive heartthrob, to Massachusetts senator.
Is she running? Haha, still no!
Who wants her to run? Progressive Democrats; economic populists, disaffected Obamans, disaffected Bushites.
Can she win the nomination? No, because she’s not running.
Read more from The Atlantic:
This article was originally published on The Atlantic.
