2020 Census undercounted Latinos, Native Americans and Black Americans at high rates

The nation's Latino population was undercounted in the 2020 census at a level more than three times that of the 2010 census, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates announced Thursday.

The Black population, along with Native Americans living on reservations, also were undercounted at higher levels in the 2020 census, while non-Hispanic white people and Asian Americans were overcounted, according to comparative demographic data released in conjunction with a Census Bureau virtual presentation.

The racial estimates are based on the census's post-enumeration survey, a follow-up with some people used as a tool to measure who was missed in the census. Although overcounts and undercounts were reported for specific racial and ethnic groups, the estimate for the nation's overall population did not deviate significantly from the April 2020 count.

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The COVID-19 pandemic and related lockdowns had a major effect on census data collection.

"The Census Bureau faced an unprecedented set of challenges over the last two years," director Robert L. Santos said during the presentation. "Many of you, including myself, have voiced concerns. How could anyone not be concerned?"

The estimates will not result in any changes to the 2020 population count of 331.4 million, Census Bureau officials said. Santos said the overall population count was "robust and consistent with that of recent censuses."

A nearly 5% undercount of Latino people was more than three times larger compared with the population's 2010 undercount (1.54%), marking the biggest differentiation by far for any racial or ethnic group since 2010.

In 2020, Black people were undercounted by an estimated 3.3%, up from a 2.1% shortfall in 2010, while American Indian and Alaska Natives living on reservations recorded the highest undercount of any racial or ethnic, 5.6%, up from 4.9% in 2010.

The estimated undercount of people who identified as "some other race" was up dramatically to 4.3%, more than 2.5 times higher than the 2010 rate.

Non-Hispanic whites were overcounted by nearly double the ratio of 2010, 1.64% vs. 0.83%, while the Asian population, which saw zero estimated counting errors in 2010, was overcounted by 2.6% in 2020.

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The most significant age undercount was for children from birth to 4 years old, a group traditionally recorded at lower than actual levels.

The net undercount of young children (5.4%) is the highest rate recorded since such tracking started in 1950, said demographer William P. O'Hare, a consultant to Count All Kids, a campaign committed to a full count of children in the census. A main reason for the disparity is the mistaken belief by some people that young children are not supposed to be included in the count, he wrote in a Count All Kids report.

As in 2010, young Black and Hispanic children had higher undercount rates than non-Hispanic white children and preliminary 2020 data suggest the gap has grown wider, the report said.

Renters, who tend to move more often, also were undercounted in the 2020 census, while homeowners were overcounted. The pandemic likely caused a greater number of renters to relocate, census officials said.

In all, the post-enumeration survey estimated 18.8 million omissions, which are described as "people who should have been correctly counted in the census but were not."

The 2020 census featured factors that raised concerns that undercounts of people of color could be even greater than usual. Both the COVID-19 pandemic, which essentially locked down the country just weeks before the April 1, 2020, census deadline, and Trump administration policies perceived as hostile to people of Latino heritage and immigrant communities, including a proposed census citizenship question that was eventually scuttled, potentially hindered response rates, members of nongovernmental and voting rights groups have said.

Santos, the Census Bureau director, said the influence of the pandemic "was quite profound."

"We had families of all races and ethnicities, but especially among Latinos, who were really suffering during this period," he said. "They were out of work. There were issues of housing stability, there were hunger issues and so forth. And I think that that plays a role in the ability to (participate)."

Santos said discussion of a potential citizenship question, even though it was not added to the census, may have affected participation by some people, as likely evidenced by the higher Latino undercount.

"The Census Bureau's own research in terms of focus group research raised concerns very early on about the inclusion of a citizenship question," he said. "So, therefore, all of the publicity surrounding the efforts to place it on (the census) may well have had an impact. I am personally not surprised to see the results that we see today."

Arturo Vargas, CEO of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Educational Fund, harshly criticized the high undercount of the Latino population.

When initial census numbers were released last year, "we smelled smoke. The (post-enumeration survey) estimates released today confirm that this census was a five-alarm fire," he said in a statement. “There is no question that the previous administration’s political interference contributed to the undercount (and) created an environment that left Latinos and others fearful of responding to the census."

National Urban League President Marc Morial, who spoke at a press conference immediately after the Census Bureau presentation, excoriated those responsible for the undercount, calling it “a tragedy and an act of near malfeasance and incompetence by the leadership for the census under the Trump administration. These numbers are devastating.”

Being undercounted carries a hefty cost, from reduced political representation during federal, state and local redistricting, to the loss of billions of dollars of government funds distributed based on community population.

"The impact of this undercount on the reapportionment process that is underway in many states is incalculable," Morial said. "The impact (this) will have on the distribution of formula funding by our national government and many states is potentially devastating because these numbers are baked in for a 10-year period. We intend to bring certainly our sense of outrage and disappointment to the highest levels of the government, the Congress and others, and we are not clear today what options may be there to rectify this situation, but there should be an effort to rectify this."

In a statement, the National Congress of American Indians called the "persistent undercount of (American Indian and Alaska Natives) living on reservation lands … unacceptable," adding that it has been telling the Census Bureau for years about undercount factors related to pandemic shutdowns, lack of broadband on tribal lands and a negative effect from new privacy measures.

2020 census figures released in August showed that white people remained the nation's largest racial group, even though that population decreased by 8.6% since 2010. By comparison, the number of Asian Americans surged by about 36%, the Hispanic and Latino community jumped by about 23% and the Black population grew by about 6%.

The populations of nonwhite racial and ethnic groups have long been the subject of census undercounts for a variety of reasons, including distrust of government because of discriminatory treatment of people of color and a higher proportion of renters, a group that tends to have lower response rates compared with homeowners.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Census undercounts Black, Latino populations in COVID-19 year