2020 Democrats are repeating Hillary's 2016 mistake with Trump supporters: Today's talker
The Democratic primary for the party's 2020 presidential nomination, as well as President Donald Trump's reelection efforts, are well under way. Political commentators weigh Trump's chances at winning a second term.
Democrats are handing Trump 2020
By Robert Robb
The left has apparently decided that Hillary Clinton was right: Trump supporters are a basket of irredeemable deplorables.
White racism is the reason Trump won in 2016, a growing chorus on the left proclaims. And if he wins in 2020, white racism will again be the reason.
Gee, it seems like it was only yesterday that the left was lecturing Republicans that there weren’t enough white voters left in the United States to win a national election.
No one has quite explained how white racists gained the upper hand in an electorate that is less white than the ones in 2008 and 2012 that elected Barack Obama the first black president by comfortable margins.
This is a serious misreading of the political landscape and dynamic.
Race won't get Trump reelected
There is a clear and decisive majority of Americans ready to get rid of Donald Trump as president.
If he is reelected, it will be because Democrats nominated someone pledged to turn the United States into a European-style social democracy. And a substantial segment of the electorate that has a hard time stomaching Trump as president decided that was too high a price to pay to get rid of him.
Republican tip for 2020: I'm telling Democrats how to beat Trump in 2020. It's Job One so get over it.
Now, Trump plays politics with race irresponsibly and reprehensibly. And that undoubtedly animates a slender portion of his base. But it doesn’t begin to explain his political success or account for his prospects in 2020.
The motivation to vote in a particular way is complex. There are often many factors at play. And all successful campaigns attract different voters for different reasons.
Trump's nationalist agenda wasn't new
Trump’s nationalist agenda in 2016 wasn’t anything new in Republican politics. It was an echo of Pat Buchanan’s presidential campaigns in the 1990s. Buchanan generally got about a third of the vote in Republican primaries. Trump received slightly more than that in the early primaries, enough to emerge on top in a crowded field.
There are three principal planks to this nationalist agenda.
Reducing immigration is one of them. The left regards this as motivated by racism, a desire to prevent a further dilution of the white majority, given that immigration these days comes primarily from Latin America and Indo-Asia.
That’s undoubtedly part of it. But this gives short shrift to a substantial economic argument about the effect of immigration on the wages of American workers — particularly the low-skilled, who are disproportionately minorities.
The other two planks, however, aren’t obviously linked to race. They are protectionism in trade and reducing the U.S. role in international disputes.
Center-right voters' pragmatic bet
For many on the center-right, a vote for Trump was a pragmatic bet that has paid off. Social conservatives got the conservative judges they wanted. Economic conservatives got tax cuts and deregulation.
But those policy gains have come with a higher than expected cost. The assumption was that, if elected president, Trump would act more presidential.
If you will permit a gross understatement, that hasn’t happened. Trump’s boorish behavior appalls many who generally agree with him on policy. Many on the center-right realize that his impulsive erraticism is a liability for both forging domestic policy and conducting international relations.
A cultural issue that works for Trump
There is a cultural issue that drove Trump’s political success in 2016 and could again in 2020: rejection and resentment of the left’s identity and grievance politics and suffocating political correctness.
Those on the center-right agree with Chief Justice John Roberts that “the way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.”
But according to the left, that’s impossible. White bias is engrained, institutionalized and impossible to eradicate. All but the fully awoke are, indeed, irredeemable. And closet bigots if not openly such.
It's time to get tough, Democrats: Republicans are eating our lunch. I want a 2020 Democrat tough enough to eat theirs.
The condescension is sensed by those on the center-right, even when it is not expressly stated, as with Clinton’s basket of deplorables or Obama’s degrading of those clinging to guns or religion.
Trump’s conduct in office is uniquely loathsome. But if he wins reelection, it will be despite that, not because of it.
And because Democrats alienated a critical mass of voters who find Trump’s conduct loathsome.
Robert Robb is an editorial columnist for The Arizona Republic, where this column originally appeared. Follow him on Twitter: @RJRobb
What others are saying:
Paul Waldman, The Washington Post: "If anything, the 2020 Trump reelection effort will likely be even more randomly organized, a seething carbuncle of misinformation oozing out in all directions. Some of it will come directly from Trump himself, some will come from his campaign, some will come from the army of trolls and bots that Russia will likely employ on his behalf once again. At times it will seem formless and random, with no clear intent other than the creation of mass confusion and uncertainty. Much of it will be directed at the Democratic nominee, whoever it is, a cloud of conspiracy theories and ludicrous allegations intended to follow them wherever they go."
Madison Gesiotto, The Hill: "Where Trump has earned the trust of the American people by fulfilling his promises, (House Speaker Nancy) Pelosi and the Democrats have betrayed that trust by granting their most irresponsible members free rein to advance their destructive agenda and spout their hateful rhetoric. (Some Democrats) clearly hope that they can persuade their party to reverse course before the 2020 campaign season gets going in earnest, but the continuing stalemate between Pelosi and the rambunctious 'squad' of radicals suggests that it may be too late to stuff that cat back in the bag."
Jamelle Bouie, The New York Times: "(Trump's) internal polling from earlier this year shows him far behind Joe Biden in four critical swing states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida — as well as slightly behind in Republican-leaning states like Georgia and North Carolina. Embarrassed by the disclosure, Trump said it was 'incorrect polling' and subsequently fired the pollsters. In the same way, you can also understand his willingness to accept foreign election assistance to be a tacit admission of his own weakness. ... But if that’s true, Trump, like his opposition, may be underestimating his ability to win. If the economy continues to grow and his approval stays steady — if the future looks and feels like the present — then President Trump will be on his way to a second term."
What our readers are saying:
Democrats had one job coming into the primaries: Don't offer insane policies. They're failing.
— Daniel Ferris
Rather than seeking to govern for the good of the people, our elected representatives have become too concerned with politics over governing.
— Todd Noebel
The only candidate who can beat Trump is a truly populist candidate. The only serious Democratic primary candidates who are truly popular are progressives, like Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. Trying to go centrist is the real recipe for defeat, just like it was in 2016.
— John Thomas
I don't understand why so many people support the president? It's unreal.
— Geoffrey Schoolar
You can read diverse opinions from our Board of Contributors and other writers on the Opinion front page, on Twitter @usatodayopinion and in our daily Opinion newsletter. To respond to a column, submit a comment to letters@usatoday.com.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: In 2020 election, Democrats repeat Hillary Clinton's 'deplorables' mistake
