2021-22 NBA season: Ranking Eastern Conference teams

It used to be LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, then the 14 other teams. The power balance, however, has shifted significantly with the West no longer being light years ahead and having so much depth that teams with 48 wins can miss the postseason (Phoenix, 2014). The likes of Kevin Durant, James Harden, Clint Capela and Bogdon Bogdanovic came to enhance East teams a year ago. The Orlando Magic are swimming in deeper waters while going through a rebuild. It’ll take a while before they’re able to tread water.

1. Brooklyn Nets

2020-21: 48-24, eliminated in conference semifinals

The Kyrie Irving chaos aside, it’s not about a regular-season record for Brooklyn. Their three best players, Durant, Harden and Irving, will all be at least 30 by the time this season ends. That not only makes them more injury-prone but also more determined to get it right this season. They’ve added more shooting with Patty Mills coming from San Antonio. Rookie Cam Thomas has Lou Williams-level potential as a scorer without a conscience which can be a good thing one day, a not-so-good the next. But it always will come down to the stars (see Joe Harris’ playoff no-show in 7-game series loss to Milwaukee). Irving isn’t fully vested and isn’t a leader. He’s a luxury piece, not a necessity. Put shooters around Harden and Durant and it creates a more spread floor, the ability to go 5 out to give those elite isolation players to operate and switch 1-5 on the defensive end where Nic Claxton’s value shines. The Nets still have the best talent concentration.

2. Milwaukee Bucks

2020-21: 46-26, NBA champions

After being a No. 1 seed and falling short multiple times, they finally got it. They needed to play for the postseason. There are no trophies for regular-season “champs.” Giannis Antetokounmpo proved he’s good enough to win a title and Jrue Holiday proved just because his boxscores don’t always look pretty he can be the most dominant guard on the floor with his defense. They get stops. They play hard, but after last season’s NBA championship they see the benefits of dialing it back to build up for the playoffs. Not being able to rely on the departed P.J. Tucker to defend wings like Durant or more traditional bigs when Milwaukee goes to a small-ball lineup hurts. They won the title the hard way. Repeating that feat would be more impressive because Antetokounmpo, already a matchup nightmare, will have to do more and so will Khris Middleton.

3. Atlanta Hawks

2020-21: 41-31, eliminated in conference finals

They’ll look similar. The Trae Young-Clint Capela/John Collins high pick-and-rolls will continue to produce highlights. And Young isn’t tasked with creating all the time. His passing is off-the-charts good. Send an extra defender, Young picks apart the defense. He can play off the ball with his ridiculous shooting range to occupy weakside defenders while the forwards initiate. Having 3-point shooting ballhandlers with size (Kevin Huerter, Danilo Gallinari and Bogdon Bogdanovic) opens different possibilities and produces other mismatches. Everything doesn’t have to be a 1-5 or 1-4 pick-and-roll. It can be 3-4, or 4-3, or 4-5. With Huerter it can be a 2-3. Whoever are the weak defensive links on the opposing team, the Hawks hunt them. Capela is there to clean up the misses and protect the rim as well as be an excellent helper in rotation. Collins’ freakish athleticism blends well, and he’s developed into a 40% shooter from 3.

4. Philadelphia 76ers

2020-21: 49-23, eliminated in conference semifinals

Where they finish in the regular season, much like Brooklyn, is irrelevant. It’s about their ability to win in the postseason. If Ben Simmons stays and doesn’t get traded despite the offseason discord, can he suddenly be on the court in the final 5 minutes of a close game? No. Making practice shots and posting them on social media doesn’t prove anything. In the postseason, where defenses prepare for one opponent for up to 7 games and can make one-dimensional players a liability, Simmons is unplayable. The three highest percentage shots, analytically speaking, are free throws, corner 3s and layups. At best, Simmons is 1-for-3. The Sixers have the depth behind Joel Embiid with backup Andre Drummond. That should allow him to reduce his minutes to preserve his fragile legs. Former Magic forward Tobias Harris can be a matchup problem and played at an All-Star level last season, but Simmons (or whoever replaces him if he’s dealt) has to be the third piece for the Sixers to be postseason viable.

5. Miami Heat

2020-21: 40-32, eliminated in first round

Was the East champion from two seasons ago in the bubble or was last season’s first-round playoff exit the more accurate representation of this team? The truth typically lies in the middle. The Heat lacked creators off the bounce who can get separation and force help which opens room for shooters like Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro. And both of those shooters were targeted on the defensive end because they’re liabilities. Now they have Kyle Lowry. Adding P.J. Tucker is peak Heat culture. At his best, Lowry has been one of the league’s most underrated on-ball defenders, with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo able to play atop the zone or strap up in man to cover for the weaknesses of others. The Heat didn’t just need more offense, but offensive players who could bring variety so they’re not as easily taken away by defenses.

6. Chicago Bulls

2020-21: 31-41, didn’t qualify

They’ve overhauled the guards and Zach LaVine won’t be expected to do it alone. Lonzo Ball has developed into a strong 3-point shooter, something that didn’t look possible with his awkward shooting motion when he came into the league four years ago. Alex Caruso is a plug-and-play type who can come off the bench and defend or be a spot starter. DeMar DeRozan, a mid-range heavy scorer, remains one of the league’s best tough shot-makers. And there’s still room for Coby White, who can fill it up. Nic Vucevic allows them to spread, run high pick-and-rolls and play 5-out. With downsizing and guard variety, their pace should skyrocket from the middle of the pack. Their defensive stability, however, will determine if this can work. White, Vucevic, DeRozan and LaVine aren’t exactly strong on end. Ball’s history of ankle injuries has limited him as a defender as well.

7. Indiana Pacers

2020-21: 34-48, didn’t qualify

On paper, they could be a 5 seed but injury issues with T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert temper expectations. Malcolm Brogdon hasn’t been durable. They had to trade Edmond Sumner after a season-ending injury in the final year of his contract and were expected to unload Jeremy Lamb before the trade deadline. All of this has increased the importance of rookie Chris Duarte, who the Pacers believed to be NBA-ready the moment they drafted him, making an impact. He’s going to play right away. He has the 3-point range but can score via spot up, stepback or one- or two-dribble pull up. And if a defender gets too close, he can blow by and finish in traffic. Rick Carlisle was brought back to restore discipline in a team that had none last season and but did have plenty of injuries. The playoffs for the Pacers are a foregone conclusion. It’s about whether or not they can do anything when they get there. They’ve not advanced out of the first round since 2014. The Domantas Sabonis-Myles Turner combo being able to thrive under Carlisle will set the table for everything that follows.

8. New York Knicks

2020-21: 41-31, eliminated in first round

The hype was out of control. The Knicks were better, Julius Randle was an All-Star and they made the playoffs. But they weren’t that good as they were manhandled by the Hawks. They needed better guard play and more shooters to make it work. They added Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier. That’s better, but Walker’s health remains an issue and they lack spread bigs. At some point, they’ll need a big who can do more than block shots like Mitchell Robinson or Nerlens Noel.

The rest of the field (in alphabetical order):

Boston Celtics

2020-21: 36-36, eliminated in first round

They’ve got a lot of pieces that might not quite fit, with a first-time coach (Ime Udoka). Dennis Schroder as a point guard next to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is interesting, to say the least. He’s a quirky personality who can be a chemistry question. The Celtics brought back Al Horford, who led them to multiple conference finals, and though he’s a good facilitating big from the high post with a great IQ, he’s 35. Ballhandlers benefit from his screening on handoffs and distribution to spot-up shooters. Having two All-Stars in Tatum and Brown can cover up a lot, but it only got them to .500 last season. Horford, a true 4 who has played undersized at the 5, is an anchor on and off the court for a team that has had its share of drama.

Charlotte Hornets

2020-21: 33-39, didn’t qualify

Gordon Hayward is the linchpin, but can he stay healthy for a season? Terry Rozier, LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges were a big part of what went right. P.J. Washington is a versatile forward who can defend smaller players and will play the 5 even though he’s just 6-7. They’ll end up as good as Hayward can be. He hasn’t finished either of his last two seasons, which will limit their ceiling.

Cleveland Cavaliers

2020-21: 22-50, didn’t qualify

This is destined to be another season at the bottom, but rookie Evan Mobley can alter that. He’s extremely versatile and could revive the Cavs quicker than expected. The guard play of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland was a bright spot, but this team still isn’t good enough to win consistently over 82 games. The Cavs have lots of size — Kevin Love, Jarrett Allen, Ed Davis, Tacko Fall, Lauri Markkanen — but that group is limited. Allen, Davis and Fall don’t have reliable post games. Markkanen is a finesse 7-footer who is heavily reliant on the 3-point, and his defensive techniques and reads are nothing short of head-scratching. Love is past his prime and never has been reliable as a defender, either.

Detroit Pistons

2020-21: 20-52, didn’t qualify

It’s all about No. 1 pick Cade Cunningham. If he turns out to be worthy, that accelerates the Pistons’ rebuild though they remain a ways off. The guard play just hasn’t been good enough offensively. Jerami Grant was paid like a star but is probably just a solid role player. Isaiah Stewart and Saddiq Bey are promising sights, but the Pistons lack quality depth which is required for the marathon that’s the NBA season.

Orlando Magic

2020-21: 21-51, didn’t qualify

They’re starting over with first-time coach Jamahl Mosley. The Magic sought veterans to help young players develop and learn during the offseason because they’re looking to feature rookies Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner and allow them to play through their mistakes. They just signed Wendell Carter to a 4-year extension on his rookie deal, hoping he adds more wrinkles to his game. Carter has to extend his shooting range to take better advantage of his quickness and athleticism against other slower bigs who’ll have to step out to guard him. In general, this team needs better/more reliable shooters to spread the floor. Terrence Ross is their go-to scorer. The availability of Jonathan Isaac (left knee ligament), who missed all of last season, would help immensely. He has the 6-11 frame, athleticism, had developed as a scorer away from the rim to beat traditional bigs off the bounce and can defend smaller players on defensive switches.

Toronto Raptors

2020-21: 27-45, didn’t qualify

The Raptors had their limitations last season and lack a discernable star to hold all their pieces together. OG Anunoby, Chris Boucher, Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and Goran Dragic are good players. As good as Nick Nurse is at drawing up Xs and Os, there’s no replacing the star power the Raptors have lost since winning the NBA title in 2019. If Scottie Barnes doesn’t pan out — or maybe doesn’t live up to his lottery status — it’ll be an even bigger setback. This isn’t a total rebuild. It’s more of a restructuring.

Washington Wizards

2020-21: 34-38, eliminated first round

Adding Kyle Kuzma and Spencer Dinwiddie gives Bradley Beal offensive support, but defensively this roster remains challenged. They likely will be among the league leaders in pace with non-traditional bigs such as Daniel Gafford and Montrezl Harrell running the floor. Davis Bertans is a one-trick pony as a 4. He can spread on one end but can’t defend speed or size on the other. Thomas Bryant is back from a season-ending injury but he’s not a strong defender, either.