2021 NFL Futures: Are the Colts the value play?

Scott Pianowski and Frank Schwab parse through Bet MGM’s AFC futures and select a few that they love.

Video Transcript


SCOTT PIANOWSKI: You have the Chiefs still the favorite to win the NFC-- to win the AFC. They're plus 225, then it goes down to Buffalo plus 500, the Ravens are plus 600, the Colts, with their fresh, shiny, new quarterback, plus 1,000, and then down, down the line. Is there anybody who jumps out at you as an AFC value right now?

FRANK SCWAB: And there's two and I bet them early. And I think we should talk about this first. It's that betting now on NFL futures can be another exercise that I feel stupid at the end of the day. But I think you have to look at, all right, I believe that this team is going to make a ton of moves and they're going to be better and their odds are going to go down. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers at this time last year were 66 to 1 to win a Super Bowl. They went down to 16-1 when they signed Tom Brady and that's what I'm trying to do. I'm trying to look and say, all right, I think this team might be a little aggressive in the offseason. If they add this piece, I really like them.

And one of those teams for me, a couple of weeks ago, is the Colts. You can go back. After the Super Bowl I was on with Minty and we did a video and I talked about, hey, the Colts are 25 to 1. If they can figure out a quarterback, I really, really like them. And I still do. I think I'm kind of a Wentz truther. I get it. He stunk last year. But that's why you're getting-- I think it's 10 to 1 to win the AFC, you said. I love that because I think they have everything else in place. I think they have the coach. I think they have, you know, an offensive line, defense, everything. I think the Colts are a really, really good football team. And they still have the cap room to make a lot of moves. They still have their first round pick. They didn't have to get that up in a trade. I really like the Colts value for the Super Bowl and the AFC.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: And again, I think if you can connect dots earlier-- I wish we talked about the Colts before the line went down because I believe in Reich, I believe in Ballard. I think the depth of their roster has always been fantastic and it's always-- they've always been that steakhouse team to me where it's like everything's great, except I'm not sure how I feel about the steak.


SCOTT PIANOWSKI: And I know there is a leap of faith you have to make with Carson Wentz. But this is what we know. We like Frank Reich. Carson Wentz and Frank Reich were making beautiful music together one year, to the point that Wentz was the MVP-elect if he had just merely not gotten hurt in that Rams game--

FRANK SCWAB: Yeah, I think so.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: --at the end of the season. Wentz would have been MVP. Oh, by the way. They won the Super Bowl since then. And by the way, since Wentz is gone, we kind of have a different opinion of maybe Doug Pederson isn't really all that special.

FRANK SCWAB: Yeah, yeah.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: Maybe it was more--

FRANK SCWAB: Yeah, Reich driving that bus.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: Right. I know you were.

FRANK SCWAB: I really do, yeah.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: You were definitely at the front of that line. So, you know, maybe Wentz-- maybe Reich was the secret sauce more than anybody else in that coaching staff.

FRANK SCWAB: For people out there who are like, didn't you watch Carson Wentz last year? He was terrible. He's a horrible quarterback. I get that. That's why they're 20 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Like, that's-- you got to take leaps of faith. Yeah, I know Patrick Mahomes is great. There's a reason they're, like, 5 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, 225 to win the AFC, like you said. This was reflected in the odds. Like, you're not going to catch good odds on a sure thing. If Carson Wentz was still the MVP of the league and the Colts just got him, they wouldn't be 20 to 1 to win Super Bowl. They'd be 3 to 1. And, so.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: Philip Rivers had his ups and downs. They probably should have beaten Buffalo in the first round of the playoffs.

FRANK SCWAB: Yeah. They were right in that game. They have a lot-- they were an 11 and 5 team last year. And I didn't think Rivers was great. I thought he played well at times, but I think if Wentz could rebound, even to his 2018, 2019 form, I think he's an upgrade. I really do. But I'm a Wentz truther. I've always loved his talent. I think they're going to get something out of him. And if they don't, they don't. But, you know, I'll take my shot at-- I'll take my shot at those odds. Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I'll be happy to be-- I'll accept being dumb once in a while if it means cashing a ticket on what looks like a pretty good-- you know, a pretty-- I'm getting value at 20 to 1. Let's put it that way.

SCOTT PIANOWSKI: And you're getting value. And the other thing is, when you take some of these medium priced or longer values is you hedge against it. Anybody who got Tampa Bay at long odds--


SCOTT PIANOWSKI: --would have had the opportunity, if they thought, OK, I'm ahead of this. Maybe the site you bet on may let you cash it out. Or you can hedge it with different results. You could even try to hedge it with the double dip as we talked about earlier. Sometimes that's available.