2022 election: A 'historic' embrace of the status quo

Dec. 29—After record money and even bigger hype, what made the 2022 midterm elections such a stunning story was that in spite of runaway inflation and plenty of public dissatisfaction, voters in New Hampshire decided the status quo was just fine with them.

The all-Democratic congressional delegation not only survived, but Sen. Maggie Hassan and Reps. Chris Pappas and Ann Kuster all won convincingly over opponents who looked far more formidable than they ultimately were.

For two years, Democratic operatives here spent nearly $5 million, believing they would make Republican Gov. Chris Sununu pay for signing the first ban on later-term abortions in modern New Hampshire history.

Instead, Sununu coasted to a 16-point win over a well-financed state Sen. Tom Sherman of Rye, who never was able to get the attention of national Democrats to help pull off what would have been a mega-upset.

Sununu's victory margin was bigger than many of his GOP gubernatorial counterparts', prominently topped by the 19.4% win that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis recorded over former Gov. Charlie Crist.

For his part, DeSantis came out of the shadow of Donald Trump on election night. As a possible presidential candidate, he beats Trump handily in early polling in New Hampshire and other key battleground states.

At year's end, Sununu raised speculation that he would join them both in a run for the White House in 2024.

It's no coincidence there's white-hot speculation that other popular GOP governors could jump into the fray, including Glenn Youngkin in Virginia, Kristie Noem in South Dakota and Asa Hutchinson in Arkansas.

Pollsters of all stripes, local and national, were the election's biggest losers. They all concluded Hassan and Pappas might lose and the GOP would surely add to its majorities at the New Hampshire State House.

As it turned out, Sununu's coattails were very short.

The state Senate remained the same, with a 14-10 Republican majority, and the Executive Council stood pat too, with four Republicans to one Democrat. Meanwhile, House Democrats nearly pulled off the shocker of the season, winning 198 of 399 seats in the New Hampshire House of Representatives.

Voters in Rochester on Feb. 21 will settle the final race, which ended in a tie between Democratic Rep. Chuck Grassie and Republican David Walker.

Another special election is likely to follow to fill the first House vacancy after Rep. Stacie Laughton, D-Nashua, resigned last week, following her arrest on domestic stalking charges.

Republicans' narrow victory deviated from the recent trend of House flips, which saw party control change five times in the previous six elections.

After so many analysts predicted a "red wave," only six incumbent Democrats — all House members — lost at the State House.

"Nobody saw it going down this way. Anyone who says they did would be lying through their teeth," said Greg Moore, state director of the state chapter of Americans for Prosperity, a fiscally conservative interest group.

"What's striking about the numbers is Republican turnout in 2022 was even bigger than in 2018," Moore said. "Clearly Democratic intensity was stronger than it had looked heading into the election."

Democratic Party Chairman Raymond Buckley credited the delegation, including Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., with helping build a ground game that could quell concern his party would lose support in the middle of President Joe Biden's first term.

"We opened 14 district offices across the state earlier than we ever had during a midterm election," Buckley said.

"I kept seeing all this trash talking on social media that Republicans were going to get 260 House members and 17 state senators, and that was never going to happen. We built a wall of support they could not tear down."

Redistricting helped limit GOP losses

Evidence strongly suggests that if not for redistricting in 2022, Democrats actually would have been even more successful.

When all race results are counted, Democrats actually got slightly more votes than Republicans in New Hampshire.

The redrawing of election districts by the GOP-led Legislature last spring clearly spelled survival for some GOP councilors and comfortable victories for many Republican Senate hopefuls.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party and its affiliates made a historic investment in social media to both promote candidates and connect on a daily basis with their volunteers all over the state.

"This is the biggest lesson Republicans need to learn from what happened in 2022," Moore said. "When it comes to using the web to organize and influence votes, they've got some real catching up to do."

GOP activists blamed the unfavorable outcome on voters' decisions in the Sept. 13 primary to nominate federal candidates who did not connect with independent voters.

"The Trump-endorsed candidates did not do well. That goes without saying here and in other battleground states," said Brad Card, a GOP consultant and brother of former White House Chief of Staff Andy Card.

Support for abortion rights following the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade motivated many to vote for Democratic incumbents over GOP alternatives, all of whom had backed abortion restrictions.

During a radio interview last week, 1st Congressional District candidate Gail Huff Brown of Rye said the issue became about more than a woman's reproductive rights.

"Voters were telling me this was about personal freedom, that people didn't want the government making decisions about their own lives," said Brown, a pro-choice Republican who lost her primary to social conservative Karoline Leavitt of Hampton.

klandrigan@unionleader.com