The 2022 Emmys BuzzMeter: Here comes the buzz

The Buzz is back! Here are our panel of experts' picks for what the Television Academy probably will consider for Emmys — and what it should. It's Round 1 of the 2022 Emmys BuzzMeter!

Our six veteran TV journalists have stared at their screens until the world no longer made sense just to bring you their analyses of 14 Emmy categories. In Round 1, they list shows and performers they expect to get attention from the academy, as well as others they believe deserve it (collectively, what's "buzzworthy"). They rank their picks in each category, with the top choice receiving the most points and the bottom receiving the fewest. As the July 12 nominations announcement charges toward us, they'll make Round 2 predictions for what they think actually will be nominated. After that, they'll predict the winners in Round 3.

Not only can you check out all the BuzzMeter Emmy musings below; you can vote for your favorites in the polls for each week's featured category. This week, we feature a category with massive turnover expected from last year: outstanding drama series.

The theme among drama contenders seems to be in with the new and out — as in "farewell to" — the old.

Six of the BuzzMeter's 10 highest vote-getters are in their first seasons, with "Euphoria" in its second. Of the three veteran series, two ("Better Call Saul" and "Ozark") are in their final seasons. Of course, those three include a recent winner ("Succession") and a five-time nominee ("Saul"). Both "Saul" and "Succession" have been nominated every season they have been on the air.

Meanwhile, perhaps this year's most water-coolery of TV dramas — "Yellowjackets," "Severance," SAG-, Critics' Choice- and Independent Spirit-winning "Squid Game" (Netflix's most-watched series ever), the completely rethought "Bel-Air" and the lush "Pachinko" — make the initial cut (assuming there are eight nominees, as in recent years).

Panelist Kristen Baldwin, stanning both "Pachinko" and "Squid Game," says, "Dear Emmy voters: ... The world will not end if you nominate two worthy Korean-language dramas in one year."

Panelist Glenn Whipp sees it as a competition between "Squid Game" and "Succession": "The race figures to be a nailbiter."

Other notables on the long list include the controversial "Winning Time," the mind-bending MCU entry "Loki" and the final season of "This Is Us," with the four-time nominee receiving only three points on three last-place votes by panelists.

1. "Yellowjackets"

2. "Severance"

3. "Squid Game"

4. "Succession"

5. "Better Call Saul"

6. "Euphoria"

7. "Bel-Air"

8. "Pachinko"

9. "Ozark"

10. "The Gilded Age"

11. "The Good Fight"

12. "Loki"

13. (tie) "The Morning Show"

13. (tie) "Yellowstone"

15. (tie) "Winning Time"

15. (tie) "Bridgerton"

17. "Slow Horses"

18. "This Is Us"

Zendaya, the youngest performer to win in the category, narrowly leads first-round voting over Critics' Choice Award winner Melanie Lynskey of "Yellowjackets." One point separates the two. From there, it's a steep dropoff to the rest of the pack — seven points separate the other six actresses to make the eight-nominee cut, with Juliette Lewis one-half point out of the circle. By the way, that "pack" includes Oscar, Tony and Emmy nominees, a Tony winner and three previous Emmy winners.

Panelist Trey Mangum says, "A two-peat for Zendaya seems undeniable at this point," while Glenn Whipp points out that despite very tough competition, "The Emmys do like reruns." Meanwhile, Lorraine Ali says Britt Lower "slays in ‘Severance,’ but does she have any memory of her performance?"

Notably, Sarah Lancashire of "Julia" received votes as lead actress in both comedy and drama for the show.

1. Zendaya ("Euphoria")

2. Melanie Lynskey ("Yellowjackets")

3. (tie) Aunjanue Ellis ("61st Street")

3. (tie) Britt Lower ("Severance")

5. Christine Baranski ("The Good Fight")

6. Laura Linney ("Ozark")

7. Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve")

8. Carrie Coon ("The Gilded Age")

9. Juliette Lewis ("Yellowjackets")

10. Tawny Cypress ("Yellowjackets")

11. Simone Ashley ("Bridgerton")

12. Jennifer Aniston ("The Morning Show")

13. Sarah Lancashire ("Julia")

14. Elisabeth Moss ("Shining Girls")

15. Sandra Oh ("Killing Eve")

16. (tie) Cassandra Freeman ("Bel-Air")

16. (tie) Julia Roberts ("Gaslit")

Votes were all over the place for the leading men, with the top three — Adam Scott, SAG winner Lee Jung-jae and Bob Odenkirk — in a tight race on top. The father-son team from "Succession," including previous winner Jeremy Strong, follows, very close to each other in the voting. Tom Hiddleston bids for the Marvel Cinematic Universe's first nod in the category, while previous winner Sterling K. Brown should get some attention for his show's final season and the new dramatic spin on the character Will Smith — played by Jabari Banks — gets love from panelists who think "Bel-Air" slaps.

Panelist Tracy Brown says, “Newcomer Jabari Banks and new-to-American-audiences Lee Jung-jae — who has already collected a SAG Award and an Indie Spirit Award for this role — need to be recognized along with the category’s familiar faces.”

Matt Roush thinks it's possible: “The star of ‘Squid Game’ could upset the Emmy cart as he has at other awards shows, but the competition is stiff, with Adam Scott juggling two personas in ‘Severance,’ Bob Odenkirk’s swan song as Saul Goodman and the father-son ‘Succession’ tag team.” Meanwhile, Lorraine Ali isn't low-key about her appreciation for Hiddleston "for his part in making ‘Loki’ Disney+’s second-best Marvel series behind ‘WandaVision.’ And the horns. Everyone loves those.”

1. Adam Scott ("Severance")

2. Lee Jung-jae ("Squid Game")

3. Bob Odenkirk ("Better Call Saul")

4. Brian Cox ("Succession")

5. Jeremy Strong ("Succession")

6. Jabari Banks ("Bel-Air")

7. Tom Hiddleston ("Loki")

8. Sterling K. Brown ("This Is Us")

9. Jason Bateman ("Ozark")

10. Courtney B. Vance ("61st Street")

11. Lee Min-Ho ("Pachinko")

12. Jonathan Bailey ("Bridgerton")

13. Kevin Costner ("Yellowstone")

14. Gary Oldman ("Slow Horses")

15. John C. Reilly ("Winning Time")

16. Patrick Stewart ("Star Trek: Picard")

17. Josh Brolin ("Outer Range")

Our panelists place not one but two Korean performers on the list, with "Squid Game's" Jung Ho-yeon, who won the SAG Award for her performance, at the top and Oscar winner Yuh-Jung Youn just making the field of eight for "Pachinko."

There are some strong feelings on the panel. Trey Mangum calls Sydney Sweeney's "Euphoria" performance a "tour-de-force supporting turn." Lorraine Ali offered, "Four words — or maybe two names and a show title: Christina Ricci. Misty. ‘Yellowjackets.’ Ricci’s terrifyingly cheery and murderous nerd in the Showtime drama gathered a cult following" — ahem, perhaps appropriately for the show. But one actress got the most impassioned endorsements from the panel: Rhea Seehorn of "Better Call Saul."

Glenn Whipp says, “If Seehorn doesn’t finally earn a nomination for her deft work ... the Emmys should just go dark for a year.” Kristen Baldwin says, "OK, voting body, this is your last chance. Are you going to recognize Rhea Seehorn’s extraordinary work ... or are we going to have to send Gus Fring after you?"

I'd pay heed, Television Academy. Gustavo Fring is not a man to be trifled with.

1. Jung Ho-yeon ("Squid Game")

2. (tie) Rhea Seehorn ("Better Call Saul")

2. (tie) Patricia Arquette ("Severance")

4. Christina Ricci ("Yellowjackets")

5. Sydney Sweeney ("Euphoria")

6. Sarah Snook ("Succession")

7. Julia Garner ("Ozark")

8. Yuh-Jung Youn ("Pachinko")

9. Cassandra Freeman ("Bel-Air")

10. Nicola Coughlan ("Bridgerton")

11. Sally Field ("Winning Time")

12. Isabel May ("1883")

13. J. Smith-Cameron ("Succession")

14. Susan Kelechi Watson ("This Is Us")

15. Lili Taylor ("Outer Range")

16. Faith Hill ("1883")

John Turturro (who, let's be honest, probably should have won as the struggling, sympathetic lawyer in "The Night of") leads Round 1 as the uptight company man who turns out to have multiple layers in "Severance." Panelist Matt Roush says Turturro "could triumph for his unexpectedly tender performance as a lonely worker bee.”

Four "Succession" actors receive votes, along with two from "Better Call Saul." Among other interesting top vote-getters: Jason Clarke for his controversial portrayal of hoops legend Jerry West in "Winning Time" and Olly Sholotan for his complete rethink of Carlton in "Bel-Air." Viewers had to be jarred, going from the silly dancing version of the sitcom to the bitter kid doing lines of Xanax in his walk-in closet.

Panelist Trey Mangum says, "A crop of ‘Succession’ stars will seem like the shoo-in, but Olly Sholotan's Carlton-gone-bad performance in 'Bel-Air' is just too good to not recognize." Tracy Brown agrees: “I’m ready for the Roys to make way for the Bankses in any category, but especially for Olly Sholotan.”

1. John Turturro ("Severance")

2. Kieran Culkin ("Succession")

3. Olly Sholotan ("Bel-Air")

4. Matthew Macfadyen ("Succession")

5. Billy Crudup ("The Morning Show")

6. O Yeong-su ("Squid Game")

7. Giancarlo Esposito ("Better Call Saul")

8. Jason Clarke ("Winning Time")

9. (tie) Tramell Tillman ("Severance")

9. (tie) Park Hae-soo ("Squid Game")

11. Tosin Cole ("61st Street")

12. Nicholas Braun ("Succession")

13. Jonathan Banks ("Better Call Saul")

14. Alan Ruck ("Succession")

15. David Hyde Pierce ("Julia")

16. Owen Wilson ("Loki")

Surprise, surprise — a network show leads the comedy pack! ABC's "Abbott Elementary" is well out in front in early voting; it's one of only two shows to appear on every ballot in Round 1 ("Hacks" being the other).

No network show has won in this category since "Modern Family's" run of dominance ended in 2014. In fact, in the last four years, only two network shows ("The Good Place" and "black-ish") have even been nominated, accounting for only four of the 31 total nods during that time.

Many panelists singled out the ABC show in their comments, with Trey Mangum saying, "'Abbott Elementary’ changed the broadcast TV comedy. Give it everything.”

Kristen Baldwin is down for a shake-up: “This is a packed category that’s bound to be cluttered up by some knee-jerk nominations (*cough* ‘Mrs. Maisel’ *cough*), so it’s on ‘experts’ like us to scream the praises of potentially overlooked gems including ‘Reservation Dogs,’ ‘Abbott Elementary’ and ‘The Other Two.’”

Among the notables receiving major support: the returns of "Atlanta" and "Barry," outstanding debut seasons for "Only Murders in the Building," "Julia" and "Reservation Dogs," the latter second only to "Abbott Elementary" among new shows.

1. "Abbott Elementary"

2. "Hacks"

3. "Reservation Dogs"

4. "Atlanta"

5. "Barry"

6. "Only Murders in the Building"

7. "Ted Lasso"

8. "Julia"

9. "Better Things"

10. "The Other Two"

11. "Our Flag Means Death"

12. (tie) "The Flight Attendant"

12. (tie) "Girls5eva"

14. "We Are Lady Parts"

15. "Ghosts"

16. (tie) "The Afterparty"

16. (tie) "Insecure"

16. (tie) "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"

19. (tie) "Cobra Kai"

19. (tie) "Curb Your Enthusiasm"

19. (tie) "Minx"

22. (tie) "PEN15"

22. (tie) "Peacemaker"

22. (tie) "What We Do in the Shadows"

The Round 1 field for lead actress in a comedy is wildly diverse, reflecting the wild diversity of the shows. "Abbott Elementary's" Ms. Everything, Quinta Brunson, edges reigning queen Jean Smart of "Hacks" by half a point. They're followed by two actresses with very strong followings on the panel: Sarah Lancashire of "Julia" and Pamela Adlon of "Better Things." Along with Brunson and Lancashire, Selena Gomez and Devery Jacobs are up for the first seasons of their shows.

"Abbott" auteur Brunson gets mentioned the most by the panel, with Tracy Brown's “If Quinta Brunson isn’t nominated in multiple categories for ‘Abbott Elementary’ this year, should these awards even count?” a typical sentiment.

Lorraine Ali advocates for Anjana Vasan. Who? “Anjana Vasan. You likely have no idea who she is, but you should, and so should the Television Academy. Vasan plays a mousy, hijab-clad microbiology student turned punk rock guitarist in ‘We Are Lady Parts.’"

1. Quinta Brunson ("Abbott Elementary")

2. Jean Smart ("Hacks")

3. (tie) Sarah Lancashire ("Julia")

3. (tie) Pamela Adlon ("Better Things")

5. Issa Rae ("Insecure")

6. Tracee Ellis Ross ("black-ish")

7. Selena Gomez ("Only Murders in the Building")

8. Devery Jacobs ("Reservation Dogs")

9. Robin Thede ("A Black Lady Sketch Show")

10. (tie) Kaley Cuoco ("The Flight Attendant")

10. (tie) Renée Elise Goldsberry ("Girls5Eva")

10. (tie) Tiffany Haddish ("The Afterparty")

13. Maya Erskine ("PEN15")

14. (tie) Natasha Lyonne ("Russian Doll")

14. (tie) Heléne Yorke ("The Other Two")

16. Rachel Brosnahan ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

17. (tie) Anjana Vasan ("We Are Lady Parts")

17. (tie) Sara Bareilles ("Girls5Eva")

19. Rose McIver ("Ghosts")

20. Anna Konkle ("PEN15”)

Huge names dominate the Round 1 list, with Steve Martin, Martin Short and Bill Hader well in front. Other names on the list are Emmy and other awards juggernauts, save for young D'Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai of the warmly received "Reservation Dogs."

Panelists Kristen Baldwin, Tracy Brown and Trey Mangum, however, are rooting for the underdogs: “The shoo-ins (Sudeikis, Hader, Anderson) don’t need any help, so let’s use this time to tout William Zabka, who gave yet another nuanced and flat-out funny performance in ‘Cobra Kai,'" says Baldwin. Brown really wants you to taste the joy of "Peacemaker": “John Cena is likely a long shot but he is the only actor who won me over for a role I almost dismissed on principle.” And Mangum says, “They’ll want to honor Bill Hader or one of the ‘Only Murders in the Building’ guys, but here’s a thought: Utkarsh Ambudkar [of 'Ghosts']!"

1. Steve Martin ("Only Murders in the Building")

2. Martin Short ("Only Murders in the Building")

3. Bill Hader ("Barry")

4. Donald Glover ("Atlanta")

5. Anthony Anderson ("black-ish")

6. Jason Sudeikis ("Ted Lasso")

7. D'Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai ("Reservation Dogs")

8. (tie) Keegan-Michael Key ("Schmigadoon")

8. (tie) Taika Waititi ("Our Flag Means Death")

10. (tie) Rhys Darby ("Our Flag Means Death")

10. (tie) Utkarsh Ambudkar ("Ghosts")

12. Drew Tarver ("The Other Two")

13. William Zabka ("Cobra Kai")

14. Nicholas Hoult ("The Great")

15. Matt Berry ("What We Do in the Shadows")

16. Larry David ("Curb Your Enthusiasm")

17. John Cena ("Peacemaker")

18. (tie) Don Cheadle ("Black Monday")

18. (tie) Ralph Macchio ("Cobra Kai")

The two standout supporting actresses from "Abbott Elementary," Janelle James and Sheryl Lee Ralph, dominate the field in Round 1 voting. Each has double the points of the current third-place contender, Yvonne Orji (for the final season of "Insecure"). The two finished first or second on nearly every BuzzMeter ballot.

“Janelle James as the apathetic, self-centered, morally challenged principal Ava Coleman of ‘Abbott Elementary.’ Period," emphatically states panelist Lorraine Ali. Five of the six panelists shouted out James in their comments, including Matt Roush's “All hail the debut of Janelle Jones as ‘Abbott’s’ clueless, crass and hysterical principal."

Then comes a crush of recent nominees: Hannah Einbinder of "Hacks" and, from "Ted Lasso," Juno Temple and reigning champ Hannah Waddingham. Following them, highly regarded performers Zazie Beetz ("Atlanta") and Molly Shannon ("The Other Two"). The field is so strong that, in the first round, perennial contenders Kate McKinnon ("Saturday Night Live"), "Schmigadoon's" Cecily Strong (who had "SNL's" most stunning moment of the season with her clown/abortion monologue) and buzzy newcomer Paulina Alexis of "Reservation Dogs" didn't make the top eight.

They're in very good company: Previous winner Alex Borstein ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"), Tony winner Renée Elise Goldsberry ("Girls5eva"), current Oscar honoree Ariana DeBose ("Shmigadoon"), previous nominee Sara Goldberg ("Barry") and Oscar nominees Amy Ryan ("Only Murders in the Building") and Rosie Perez ("The Flight Attendant") also didn't make the initial cut. (Glenn Whipp says, "Can I put in a plug for the always sublime Ryan, who [REDACTED] in the surprising finale of ‘Only Murders’?”)

Emmy voters clearly have their work cut out for them in this stacked category.

1. Janelle James ("Abbott Elementary")

2. Sheryl Lee Ralph ("Abbott Elementary")

3. Yvonne Orji ("Insecure")

4. Hannah Waddingham ("Ted Lasso")

5. Hannah Einbinder ("Hacks")

6. Juno Temple ("Ted Lasso")

7. Molly Shannon ("The Other Two")

8. Zazie Beetz ("Atlanta")

9. Amy Ryan ("Only Murders in the Building")

10. Kate McKinnon ("Saturday Night Live")

11. Cecily Strong ("Schmigadoon")

12. Paulina Alexis ("Reservation Dogs")

13. Alex Borstein ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

14. Sarah Goldberg ("Barry")

15. (tie) Renée Elise Goldsberry ("Girls5eva")

15. (tie) Rosie Perez ("The Flight Attendant")

Current champ Brett Goldstein leads in Round 1, but the competition is fierce. Several shows — "Atlanta," "Barry," "Saturday Night Live" and Goldstein's series, "Ted Lasso" — land multiple spots on the list. Two panelists single out Brian Tyree Henry of "Atlanta" (Trey Mangum says he "may be the best Emmy shot for 'Atlanta' this year"; Matt Roush calls him a "strong contender") and two others name David Hyde Pierce (Lorraine Ali and Glenn Whipp, who says after his 11 noms for his work on "Frasier," Hyde Pierce is "due to resurface for his delightful turn in 'Julia'").

Matt Roush gives a special shout-out to "Ghosts'" "Brandon Scott Jones channeling the spirit of the great Paul Lynde."

Panelist Tracy Brown points out an issue the Television Academy may have to figure out someday soon, spotlighted by nonbinary performer Vico Ortiz choosing to submit in this category: "Vico Ortiz is fantastic in one of my favorite shows of the year. But it feels unfair that the only way to recognize a nonbinary actor’s performance, especially when playing a nonbinary character, is by having them choose which gendered category they’d like to be submitted for consideration. I understand ‘actor’ by itself is not necessarily a gendered word, but because there are ‘actor’ and ‘actress’ categories at the Emmys, it seems disingenuous to say that either is truly gender-neutral. I’m not sure what the best solution is, so everyone should just go watch ‘Our Flag Means Death.’"

1. Brett Goldstein ("Ted Lasso")

2. Brian Tyree Henry ("Atlanta")

3. Tyler James Williams ("Abbott Elementary")

4. LaKeith Stanfield ("Atlanta")

5. (tie) Anthony Carrigan ("Barry")

5. (tie) Henry Winkler ("Barry")

5. (tie) Harvey Guillen ("What We Do in the Shadows")

8. Gary Farmer ("Reservation Dogs")

9. Vico Ortiz ("Our Flag Means Death")

10. (tie) Jay Ellis ("Insecure")

10. (tie) David Hyde Pierce ("Julia")

12. Nick Mohammed ("Ted Lasso")

13. Kenan Thompson ("Saturday Night Live")

14. Brandon Scott Jones ("Ghosts")

15. (tie) Carl Clemons-Hopkins ("Hacks")

15. (tie) Brendan Hunt ("Ted Lasso")

15. (tie) Stephen Root ("Barry")

18. (tie) Owen Daniels ("Upload")

18. (tie) Ben Schwartz ("The Afterparty")

20. (tie) Jeremy Swift ("Ted Lasso")

20. (tie) Bowen Yang ("Saturday Night Live")

There are always mega-buzzy entries in the limited series category, though as panelist Glenn Whipp points out, perhaps not as obsessively so as in years past ("Watchmen," "The Queen's Gambit," "Mare of Easttown," we're looking at you). However, there's a clear favorite in Round 1: Hulu's "Dopesick" is No. 1 in the panelists' hearts, votes and comments.

Lorraine Ali says, "'Dopesick’ reigns supreme in illustrating the ripple effects of the [rich and powerful's] bottomless greed," and panelist Kristen Baldwin urges voters not to "cast a ballot until you've seen Hulu's heart-wrenching 'Dopesick' and Peacock's body-horror thriller 'Dr. Death!'"

In second place, "White Lotus" is nearly 10 points back of the leader, and then there's a long dropoff to the rest of the pack.

1. "Dopesick"

2. "The White Lotus"

3. "The Dropout"

4. "Dr. Death"

5. "Station Eleven"

6. (tie) "Maid"

6. (tie) "The Staircase"

8. "Pam and Tommy"

9. (tie) "The First Lady"

9. (tie) "Midnight Mass"

11. "Impeachment: American Crime Story"

12. "Moon Knight"

13. (tie) "The Girl From Plainville"

13. (tie) "Under the Banner of Heaven"

The Holocaust-themed "The Survivor" holds a narrow lead over the school-shooting-themed "The Fallout" in Round 1, with the Tom Morello-blessed "Metal Lords" making noise and Stephen Soderbergh's virtual-assistant-themed twist on "Rear Window" and "Blow Up”/“Blow Out," "Kimi," making the cut as well.

Opinions vary widely among the panelists — is the field "stronger than usual," as Glenn Whipp says, or "forgettable (as usual)," as Matt Roush says? Roush calls "Survivor" "the only acceptable choice," but Trey Mangum says "The Fallout" "is by far the crown jewel" and Kristen Baldwin is “putting all my eggs in the ‘Single Black Female’ basket. Five million viewers can’t be wrong!”

But two panelists wonder what we're doing here: Tracy Brown asks, "What is a TV movie in the age of streaming?" Or, as Lorraine Ali puts it: "Such a relevant and necessary category ... in 1982. It makes zero sense that this category still exists when the line between film and television is nearly gone. Is it an Oscar nominee, an Emmy contender or a ‘movie’ that’s actually more like a pilot/launch pad for a future series?"

1. "The Survivor"

2. "The Fallout"

3. (tie) "Metal Lords"

3. (tie) "Zoey's Extraordinary Christmas"

5. (tie) "Kimi"

5. (tie) "Ray Donovan"

7. "The House"

8. "Better Nate Than Ever"

9. "Single Black Female"

10. "The Sky Is Everywhere"

11. (tie) "Help"

11. (tie) "Crush"

In an extremely tight first round, only nine points separate the five actresses to make the cut. Some very big names, including Emmy winners and Oscar winners, hover below the Top 5. Rising above, in the eyes of the panel, are Amanda Seyfried of "The Dropout" and Margaret Qualley of "Maid."

Panelist Trey Mangum says, “I’d have said one of the women from ‘The First Lady’ a few months ago, but both Amanda Seyfried and Margaret Qualley seem very solid here.”

Glenn Whipp calls Qualley "the class of the field for her moving portrayal of a young woman who defies categorization.” Matt Roush says, "Seyfried’s layered performance as ‘The Dropout’s’ fraudulent Elizabeth Holmes could deliver an upset.” And Tracy Brown says, "I was as fascinated with Amanda Seyfried’s transformation as I was with Elizabeth Holmes’ actual story.”

And why isn't the A-list trio from "The First Lady" dominating the category? “Pssst, Emmy voters," whispers Kristen Baldwin: "Other than Michelle Pfeiffer’s performance as Betty Ford, ‘The First Lady’ was not good. Let’s not pretend it was!”

1. Amanda Seyfried ("The Dropout")

2. Margaret Qualley ("Maid")

3. Gillian Anderson ("The First Lady")

4. (tie) Lily James ("Pam and Tommy")

4. (tie) Jenna Ortega ("The Fallout")

6. (tie) Beanie Feldstein ("Impeachment: American Crime Story")

6. (tie) Viola Davis ("The First Lady")

8. Michelle Pfeiffer ("The First Lady")

9. Claire Foy ("A Very British Scandal")

10. Anne Hathaway (“WeCrashed”)

11. (tie) Mackenzie Davis ("Station Eleven")

11. (tie) Julia Roberts ("Gaslit")

Michael Keaton is way out in front, with more than double the points of the second-place score (Oscar Isaac and Andrew Garfield, tied); in fact, Keaton has nearly as many points in Round 1 as the next three contenders combined.

Panelist Lorraine Ali calls Keaton's work "nothing short of brilliant"; Trey Mangum calls it "riveting"; Matt Roush says Keaton "will likely add an Emmy to his other awards." Glenn Whipp warns: “If Michael Keaton’s prior acceptance speeches for ‘Dopesick’ have destroyed you, steel yourself. He’s going to be delivering another at the Emmys in September.”

After Keaton, the panel seems confident of only Isaac and Garfield — though Marvel may move Isaac's "Moon Knight" from limited to drama series, judging from a revised tweet suggesting there may be a Season 2. By the way, Isaac makes the list twice, also getting love for his work in "Scenes From a Marriage." Tracy Brown says, “Even if Oscar Isaac is recognized for ‘Scenes From a Marriage,’ I’m going to count it as a win for ‘Moon Knight.’"

Five points separate the remaining 11 actors on the list, including Ben Foster for the Holocaust boxing drama "The Survivor," Oscar winner Colin Firth for "The Staircase" and Sebastian Stan for his transformative work in "Pam & Tommy."

1. Michael Keaton ("Dopesick")

2. (tie) Oscar Isaac ("Moon Knight')

2. (tie) Andrew Garfield ("Under the Banner of Heaven")

4. Ben Foster ("The Survivor")

5. Joshua Jackson ("Dr. Death")

6. (tie) Paul Bettany ("A Very British Scandal")

6. (tie) Colin Firth ("The Staircase")

6. (tie) William Jackson Harper ("Love Life")

9. Sebastian Stan ("Pam & Tommy")

10. (tie) Benjamin Bratt ("DMZ")

10. (tie) Oscar Isaac ("Scenes From a Marriage")

10. (tie) Hamish Linklater ("Midnight Mass")

13. (tie) Himesh Patel ("Station Eleven")

13. (tie) Liev Schreiber ("Ray Donovan: The Movie")

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.