2022 preview: 3 arguments for and 3 arguments against the Guardians' postseason chances

The baseball season was saved from the lockout, though it pinched spring training into a tighter window. The Guardians era — the name change, the new logos, the revamped signage at Progressive Field — is set to begin (for games that matter, at least).

The Guardians are fully committed to a youth movement after protecting nearly a dozen prospects from a Rule 5 Draft that ended up being canceled. It left the 40-man roster with 14 players who have yet to make their major league debuts. That's in addition to the Guardians already having one of — if not the — youngest active rosters in baseball.

A season derailed by injuries in 2021 has perhaps readied parts of the roster in a more substantial way for 2022, though so much youth around the roster leaves plenty of potential but also a wealth of unknowns and potential speed bumps in the short run.

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Here are three reasons why the Guardians could exceed expectations and projections in 2022 and three reasons why they could miss the postseason for the second consecutive season.

The arguments for optimism

Manager Terry Francona, Guardians front office has earned benefit of the doubt

President of operations Chris Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff have established themselves as one of the best front offices in baseball in terms of competing with not much in the way of financial resources. The Guardians over the last few seasons have trimmed nearly $100 million from their payroll, and yet, they have remained at least on the fringe of contention. It has forced them to keep one eye trained on today while the other focuses far into the future, which is a delicate balance.

The club also will see the return of manager Terry Francona, a future Hall of Famer who has had the last two seasons cut short due to health issues. Francona is now in the healthiest place he's been in quite some time, and his return was more than welcomed by those in the clubhouse.

The Guardians have just one postseason trip in the last three seasons, though looking deeper, the 2019 iteration involved heavy injury losses and still finished as a 93-win team, and 2021 saw the rotation cut to shreds to an unprecedented degree, and that club hovered around .500.

While MLB saw a wild, record-setting period of free agency spending after the lockout was lifted, the Guardians signed only catcher Luke Maile and Bryan Shaw to major league deals. That has left them ranked 29th out of 30 teams in free agent spending this season.

A talented Guardians starting rotation is now healthy

The fact that a team built on its starting rotation had that position group torn up with injuries for most of the season and then still finished with 80 wins is, in a way, pretty remarkable. Not that it helps anything in 2022, but if the rotation can remain healthy, the Guardians will be light-years ahead of any chance they had in 2021 once Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac were all on the injured list at the same time.

In addition to that trio entering the season healthy, Triston McKenzie and especially Cal Quantrill enjoyed strong campaigns in 2021. Even if those breakouts aren't sustained to the same degree — especially with Quantrill, who could endure plenty of regression and still put together a quality season — the Guardians' 2022 rotation has a high ceiling.

"Really exciting. We feel it in the clubhouse, for sure," said ace Shane Bieber. "We have a high standard and guys continue to push it higher and higher and that’s always a good thing within a clubhouse within an organization and it’s crazy to think that we have a lot of those arms and a lot of those names, but we haven’t all thrown together just yet."

One year after spending most of the season simply trying to figure out how they'd possibly piece the pitching staff together day by day, the rotation is the most secure group on the roster.

Some of the Guardians' younger talent could break through in 2022

Francona has noted before that having to rely on younger talent will lead to speed bumps, and the team knows that. That will again be the case in 2022.

Many of the team's top prospects are already on the 40-man roster and knocking on the door to the major leagues. Tyler Freeman (once healthy), Gabriel Arias, Steven Kwan, Richie Palacios and others all fit that bill.

The Guardians had to bend over backwards to protect nearly a dozen highly-regarded players from the Rule 5 Draft. Several of those names are likely a few years away from the majors. But plenty could factor heavily into the 2022 season at some point, and a few could make the Opening Day roster. It's also not the case that free agent additions were major factors a season ago anyway, considering Eddie Rosario saved much of his production for the Braves.

The Guardians know there will be speed bumps. But with health and a few contributors from prospects making their debuts, the 80-win plateau from 2021 can be topped.

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The arguments for pessimism

Relying on youthful contributions from too many spots might be too much for Guardians to overcome

There is another side to that coin: having prospects knocking on the door to the majors is great in addition to having some more established veterans. The Guardians in 2022 will need to rely on youth followed by, well, more youthful youth.

The middle infield, for example, could at some point feature Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, Owen Miller, Ernie Clement, Yu Chang, Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman and Richie Palacios. Only Rosario has established any secure track record at the major league level.

The ceiling is high. But it might be difficult to gain enough speed if bumps in the road become too prevalent.

The American League Central is more formidable

The American League Central is much more formidable from top to bottom than it was a few years ago.

The Chicago White Sox are among the favorites to represent the AL in the World Series. A thoroughly talented, young roster has been complemented over the last few seasons by needed veterans.

The Minnesota Twins became aggressive in an effort to not waste this contention window, making significant moves such as adding star shortstop Carlos Correa.

The Royals and Tigers, two teams in the midst of rebuilds, even figure to be improved with a combination of youth and, in Detroit, the signing of Javy Baez and others to free-agent deals.

Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections have the Guardians with 77 wins, well behind the White Sox (91) and Twins (86). The Wild Card hopes aren't much better even with the expanded playoffs (six seeds), considering the AL East features four teams projected with at least 85 wins and the AL West features three teams above an 83-win projection. All considered, the Guardians have a 10.1% chance of making the playoffs, according to PECOTA.

Perhaps the Guardians can weather some storms and navigate the speed bumps that come with such a young roster void of extended major league track records. The question, then, is if it'll be enough to overtake so many contenders for one of the six playoff spots.

Cleveland's lack of proven depth means fortunes could quickly turn south

The outfield is a great example of how it's difficult certain areas around the Guardians' roster. Bradley Zimmer for a few weeks last season did his best Travis Hafner impression, hitting a ball to the second deck in right field — which is actually more than Hafner-ian considering rows of seats were eliminated since the man known as "Pronk" was peppering the stands in right field with rockets. Meanwhile, Oscar Mercado has put on roughly 20 pounds of muscle in an effort to regain some resemblance of his 2019, rookie-season success. But neither has shown much in the way of consistency.

Prospect Steven Kwan could be a factor right from Opening Day if he breaks camp with the major league squad. Josh Naylor could be a factor once his surgically repaired ankle is ready. Antonetti said this past week that a Naylor return by April 7 hasn't been ruled out, but that the team would need to proceed with caution.

Could all of that work out in Cleveland's favor in the end, with their patience being rewarded? Sure. But is it a precarious position to potentially need two players amongst that group to work out to a near-best-case scenario? Absolutely. The Guardians have options but few reasonable assurances.

Then there's Jose Ramirez, who considering his talent and the roster he's on might be the single most important player to his own team in baseball aside from anyone not named Shohei Ohtani. Ramirez is a three-team MVP finalist and one of the more underrated stars in the game. But he's also an anchor to the lineup (perhaps along with Franmil Reyes), and any extended absence would put the Guardians' lineup into a very difficult position.

Ryan Lewis can be reached at rlewis@thebeaconjournal.com. Read more about the Guardians at www.beaconjournal.com/sports/cleveland-guardians. Follow him on Twitter at @ByRyanLewis.

This article originally appeared on Akron Beacon Journal: Cleveland Guardians 2022 season preview: