The 2023 Emmys BuzzMeter: Back with your awards-season viewing guide

That low hum you hear is the return of the ever-fabulous Emmy BuzzMeter panel, back with their way-ahead-of-the-curve Round 1 picks for 2023!

We think of this as the "Buzzy" round, a kind of viewing guide for awards-season followers or just folks who want hot tips for the best stuff on TV. In Round 1, our six veteran television journalists mix what they're confident will get attention in the Emmy race with what they would like to see get noticed. They’ve ranked their picks in each of 14 categories, giving their top ones the most points. In Round 2, they'll predict what actually will be nominated by the academy on July 12. In Round 3, they'll predict the winners ahead of the Sept. 18 ceremony.

You can pick along with them (or against them) in our online polls accompanying each week’s featured category. This week, we feature one of the flagship categories, and one in which the competition may be even stronger than it was last year: Outstanding drama series.

More than half of last year's nominees aren't eligible this year — no "Squid Game," "Severance," "Ozark," "Euphoria" or "Stranger Things." But not only are the returning contenders heavyweights — "Yellowjackets" and the final seasons of "Better Call Saul" and reigning champ "Succession" — but among those stepping into the ring are the much-ballyhooed "House of the Dragon" with its winning "Game of Thrones" pedigree; perhaps the most talked-about show of the season, "The Last of Us"; the best-reviewed live-action "Star Wars" series yet, "Andor"; the hugely popular and very in-the-news "Yellowstone"; and a returning champ — the only drama series ever to score a seven-category drama sweep (a Royal Flush+ ?) — "The Crown."

And that's without the ultra-buzzy Brit import "Bad Sisters." The near-surefire nominee "The White Lotus," which scored 20 nominations and a cool 10 wins in its previous life as a limited series last year, or one that panelist Trey Mangum picks for a potential "surprise nomination, given how warmly it has been received ... Netflix’s ‘Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story.’”

But despite the first-round point total favoring "Last of Us," the panel's early prognostications heavily favor its streamer-mate to eventually win: “For any nominee in this category that isn’t named ‘Succession,’ I’m afraid to say your chances of winning are going to be ‘heavily f— delayed,' " says Kristen Baldwin. “The obvious frontrunner is the mercilessly brutal final season of HBO’s ‘Succession’, which saved its cruelest and most politically prescient barbs for last," says Matt Roush. And Glenn Whipp says, "Let’s be real: This year, there’s ‘Succession’ and there’s everything else. And I say that as an unabashed fan of ‘Better Call Saul,’ a series that still hasn’t won an Emmy over the course of its brilliant run."

1. "The Last of Us"

2. "Succession"

3. "Better Call Saul"

4. "Yellowjackets"

5. "Bad Sisters"

6. "Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story"

7. "House of the Dragon"

8. "The White Lotus"

9. (tie) "Andor"

9. (tie) "Interview With the Vampire"

9. (tie) "P-Valley"

12. "The Crown"

13. "The Good Fight"

14. (tie) "Picard"

14. (tie) "Serpent Queen"

16. (tie) "Bel-Air"

16. (tie) "Slow Horses"

18. (tie) "Perry Mason"

18. (tie) "Snowfall"

Only one of last year's nominees, Melanie Lynskey, is even eligible this time around. As such, she's the frontrunner in Round 1, but there are major obstacles to the "Yellowjackets" star sating the show's hunger for a major prize. Among these: Her castmates, as several of the grownup versions of the show's characters are submitting as lead. Two (Tawny Cypress and Juliette Lewis) receive support from the panel in Round 1. Panelist Tracy Brown says Lynskey "has definitely earned her spot as a frontrunner in this category, but I think there should be room for more than one nominee from ‘Yellowjackets.’ "

Then there's a royal pain for all commoner contenders: The first two actresses to play Queen Elizabeth II on "The Crown" (Claire Foy and Olivia Colman) enjoyed Emmy coronations; Imelda Staunton's shot at continuing the regal lineage may well be boosted by the real-life monarch's passing and her son's ascension to the throne being recent news. Meanwhile, another queen, Charlotte (Golda Rosheuvel), earned the fealty of critics.

But speaking of succession, "Succession's" Sarah Snook competes for the first time in the lead category, in the series' final season, in which she happened to deliver some of her most emotional, challenging work. Meanwhile, Sharon Horgan headlines the critically lauded "Bad Sisters" (she "gave my favorite performance this year," says panelist Lorraine Ali) and several panelists shout out Brandee Evans of "P-Valley." Kristen Baldwin says Evans "may not ride dragons or fight “clickers,” but she’s giving a powerful performance as Mississippi mom — and incredible pole dancer — Mercedes Woodbine in Katori Hall’s wildly compelling stripper drama.”

The name that came up most in the panelists' comments? Bella Ramsey, integral to the success of the ultra-buzzy "The Last of Us." Among the Buzzards' raves: Glenn Whipp saying "Ramsey was so good in ‘The Last of Us,’ sullen (c’mon, she is a teenager), sharp, funny, vulnerable and, when push comes to shove, a badass. Don’t count her out.”

Among the notables not making the top-eight cut (or not getting votes at all): Elisabeth Moss ("The Handmaid's Tale") is a previous winner; Keri Russell's "The Diplomat" is a hit; Christine Baranski ("The Good Fight") is highly respected and Helen Mirren ("1923") is, you know, Helen Mirren.

1. Melanie Lynskey ("Yellowjackets")

2. Sarah Snook ("Succession")

3. Bella Ramsey ("The Last of Us")

4. Sharon Horgan ("Bad Sisters")

5. Emma D'Arcy ("House of the Dragon")

6. Brandee Evans ("P-Valley")

7. Tawny Cypress ("Yellowjackets)

8. Christine Baranski ("The Good Fight")

9. Helen Mirren ("1923")

10. Imelda Staunton ("The Crown")

11. Golda Rosheuvel ("Queen Charlotte")

12. Juliette Lewis ("Yellowjackets")

It's not going to be another father-vs.-son face-off for the "Succession" crew; This time, it's father vs. son vs. son, as Kieran Culkin's Roman Roy steps out of big brother Kendall Roy's (previous winner Jeremy Strong's) shadow — and out of the supporting category — into the lead-actor brouhaha. Will the fact that Brian Cox's Logan Roy was only in barely more than 20% of the season prevent his, um, success in the race? Well, Anthony Hopkins' Hannibal Lecter was in about 14% of "The Silence of the Lambs" for that Oscar win, and Logan's teeth tore into at least as much of his own people as Hannibal's did.

It's the academy's last shot (probably) at honoring five-time (acting) nominee Bob Odenkirk for "Better Call Saul" and three-time nominee Patrick Stewart for "Picard." Pointing out that, coming into this season, "Saul" had received 46 nominations — and zero wins in any category — Glenn Whipp says, "I think we can all agree that is a travesty, one that needs to be corrected in this, the show’s final Emmy run. And who better to win than Bob Odenkirk?"

Then again, “All hail ‘The P—’ or, at least, Claes Bang’s portrayal of the ‘Bad Sisters’ villain," says Lorraine Ali. "He needs to be nominated." Trey Mangum says, "For me, the standout performance here is Damson Idris for the last season of ‘Snowfall.’ "

Meanwhile, Pedro Pascal starred in two big shows, "The Mandalorian" and "The Last of Us." And given the longer format, Diego Luna was able to bring much more depth and complexity to his "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story" character in "Andor."

Fun fact: With Pascal and Luna among the top contenders, it's worth noting that only one Latinx actor has ever been nominated in the category — Jimmy Smits, for "NYPD Blue" (five times). None has ever won.

1. Bob Odenkirk ("Better Call Saul")

2. Pedro Pascal ("The Last of Us")

3. Kieran Culkin ("Succession")

4. Jeremy Strong ("Succession")

5. Damson Idris ("Snowfall")

6. Diego Luna ("Andor")

7. Jacob Anderson ("Interview With the Vampire")

8. Nicco Annan ("P-Valley")

9. Brian Cox ("Succession")

10. (tie) Jeff Bridges ("The Old Man")

10. (tie) Patrick Stewart ("Picard")

12. Antony Starr ("The Boys")

14. (tie) Claes Bang ("Bad Sisters")

14. (tie) Harrison Ford ("1923")

Only three of last year's eight nominees are eligible this year, and they're all at the top of the Round-1 ranking. With the field wide open, the panel supported a whopping 19 contenders.

Rhea Seehorn, who finally received her first nomination last year after several outstanding seasons on "Better Call Saul" (she actually received her first two, including one for her work in the short-form series "Cooper's Bar"), may well be the frontrunner this year for "Saul's" final season. She faces likely returning nominees Christina Ricci ("Yellowjackets") and J. Smith-Cameron.

A rule change seemingly aimed at making mass nominations for individual shows more difficult may complicate things for "The White Lotus," the ensemble show with multiple contenders in several acting categories, though multiple SAG and Critics' Choice winner — and previous Emmy winner — Jennifer Coolidge seems a pretty good bet here. Others in this boat include multiple contenders from "The Crown," "The Handmaid's Tale," "House of the Dragon" and "Yellowjackets." Cameron's path to a repeat nom probably flows around this obstacle with previous nominee (and "Succession" castmate) Sarah Snook's move to the lead category.

Still, says Kristen Baldwin, " ‘Yellowjackets’ ’ Christina Ricci deserves another nom, as does her co-star Sophie Nélisse, whose young Shauna truly went through the emotional wringer in the wilderness this season.” And Tracy Brown advocates for a pair from another show: “I can’t be the only person who wished ['House of the Dragon'] spent a bit more time with Milly Alcock’s younger version of Rhaenyra Targaryen... That said, the future did bring Olivia Cooke into the picture, so it wasn’t all sad.”

1. Rhea Seehorn ("Better Call Saul")

2. Jennifer Coolidge ("White Lotus")

3. Christina Ricci ("Yellowjackets")

4. (tie) Milly Alcock ("House of the Dragon")

4. (tie) Carol Burnett ("Better Call Saul")

6. Elizabeth Debicki ("The Crown")

7. Eve Hewson ("Bad Sisters")

8. Olivia Cooke ("House of the Dragon")

9. (tie) Aubrey Plaza ("The White Lotus")

9. (tie) J. Smith-Cameron ("Succession")

11. Angela Lewis ("Snowfall")

12. (tie) Adjoa Andoh ("Queen Charlotte")

12. (tie) Yvonne Strahovski ("The Handmaid's Tale")

12. (tie) Coco Jones ("Bel-Air")

15. Sophie Nélisse ("Yellowjackets")

16. Simone Kessell ("Yellowjackets")

17. Lauren Ambrose ("Yellowjackets")

18. (tie) Lesley Manville ("The Crown")

18. (tie) Denise Gough ("Andor")

Matt Smith ekes out a one-point lead over reigning champ Matthew Mcfadyen in Round 1.

While a rule change mildly discouraging mass nominations for individual shows may slow the roll of the likes of "The White Lotus," "The Handmaid's Tale" and even Emmy ensemble juggernaut "Succession," Mcfadyen from the latter looks like a pretty sure bet to land at least another nom. In fact, due to the devastating, emotionally charged confrontations his Tom Wambsgans had with Sarah Snook's Shiv Roy in the series' final season, he may well be favored to repeat — a case of Wambsgans, thank you, ma'am.

Speaking of "Succession," a pair of Skarsgårds (which, in Sweden, is considered a good omen for the chocolate harvest) could make news in this category if Alexander can convert last season's guest-actor nod to another as supporting and his father, Stellan, can go rogue to steal one as "Andor's" shifty Resistance figure. Stellan's main obstacle in doing so may be potential vote-splitting with castmate Andy Serkis, who turned in tremendously sympathetic work, and one of the series' most stirring speeches (but who receives no love in Round 1 of the BuzzMeter).

The "Succession" boys do indeed litter the picks and comments in Round 1. Lorraine Ali, however, climbs the parapets to declare, “I’d like to use this entire space to sing the praises of Matt Smith, who plays the amoral Prince Daemon" in "House of the Dragon." Trey Mangum says Isaiah John of "Snowfall" was "very terrific." Matt Roush calls the great John Lithgow a "veteran scene stealer" in "The Old Man" and pulls out a "wish-list long shot: Todd Stashwick as 'Picard's' hilarious skeptical Starfleet officer who refused to worship the aging heroes."

1. Matt Smith ("House of the Dragon")

2. Matthew Macfadyen ("Succession")

3. (tie) John Lithgow ("The Old Man")

3. (tie) Alexander Skarsgård ("Succession")

5. Stellan Skarsgård ("Andor")

6. Nicholas Braun ("Succession")

7. Alan Ruck ("Succession")

8. J. Alphonse Nicholson ("P-Valley)

9. Olly Sholotan ("Bel-Air")

10. Giancarlo Esposito ("Better Call Saul")

11. (tie) Isaiah John ("Snowfall")

11. (tie) Andre Braugher ("The Good Fight")

13. Jensen Ackles ("The Boys")

14. (tie) Bradley Whitford ("The Handmaid's Tale")

14. (tie) Elijah Wood ("Yellowjackets")

16. (tie) F. Murray Abraham ("The White Lotus")

16. (tie) Sam Reid ("Interview with a Vampire")

18. Wes Bentley ("Yellowstone")

19. (tie) Jonathan Banks ("Better Call Saul")

19. (tie) Max Minghella ("The Handmaid's Tale")

19. (tie) Theo James ("The White Lotus")

19. (tie) Todd Stashwick ("Picard")

19. (tie) Tony Revolori ("Willow")

The — what — Platinum? Plutonium? Unobtainium? — Age of Television Comedy continues with a host of massively popular and critically lauded shows in the running. Possibly boosting their Emmy allure, several — "Atlanta," "Barry," "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel," "Reboot" — are over and some — "Ted Lasso," "The Great" — may be ending. And then there's the new blood, including "Poker Face," "Mo" and "Shrinking," and what has to be considered among the favorites, after its romp through the non-Emmy awards season: "The Bear."

And that's without counting a few that are just happily chugging along — "Only Murders in the Building," "Reservation Dogs," "What We Do in the Shadows" and a little show called "Abbott Elementary" among them. Lorraine Ali says "Abbott" "is king here. It should have no problem populating multiple comedy categories."

And besides those, our panelists have a few other ideas about what deserves some awards love this year: "A hidden gem here is Max’s ‘Rap Sh!t,’ the Issa Rae-produced series that was a laugh-out-loud treasure from last summer,” says Trey Mangum. "It hurt not to put the tuneful spoof ‘Schmigadoon!’ on the short list," says Matt Roush.

Perhaps the most fervent praise in the panelists' comments went to "Barry": Kristen Baldwin says, "Bill Hader’s bleak, yet brutally funny, final season of ‘Barry’ was, hands down, the best show in contention this year." Glenn Whipp says the show "started as a pitch-black comedy and, over the course of its run, fully gave into its dark premise, becoming a bleak, honest examination of the limits of redemption. Its brilliance defies categorization.”

1. "Abbott Elementary"

2. "Barry"

3. "Poker Face"

4. "The Bear"

5. "Only Murders in the Building"

6. "Mo"

7. (tie) "Reboot"

7. (tie) "Ted Lasso"

9. (tie) "The Other Two"

9. (tie) "Rap Sh!t"

9. (tie) "Reservation Dogs"

12. "Wednesday"

13. (tie) "Shrinking"

13. (tie) "UnPrisoned"

15. (tie) "Somebody Somewhere"

15. (tie) "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"

17. (tie) "American Born Chinese"

17. (tie) "Atlanta"

With reigning queen Jean Smart out, "Abbott Elementary's" do-everything Quinta Brunson seems the likely frontrunner. At least, that's what several BuzzMeter panelists think. But beyond that creator-showrunner-writer-star, the race feels wide open.

Rachel Brosnahan is a previous winner, and though awards-watcher enthusiasm for "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel" may have flagged, its fifth and final season does sport a 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. She's ninth in the Round-1 voting. The superb duo of three-time nominee Linda Cardellini (10th) and seven-time nominee (including twice for this role) and previous winner Christina Applegate (third) might likewise suffer from "Dead to Me's" perceived third-season dip. Elle Fanning could earn a second consecutive nom, but her excellent show ("The Great") feels underappreciated (six noms in two previous seasons, with one win for period costumes). She didn't receive any first-round votes.

Multiple panelists sing the praises of Robin Thede — Kristen Baldwin says "it’s way past time for the voting body to honor the hardest working woman in sketch comedy: ‘A Black Lady Sketch Show’ creator/writer/star Robin Thede.” Tracy Brown says, “Tatiana Maslany is one of my favorite actors, so watching her do comedy with a superhero twist was a delight. She might be a longshot, but ‘She-Hulk’ is a smart and fun show."

And several panelists shout out Natasha Lyonne, star, co-creator, occasional writer and director of "Poker Face," executing something like a tribute to Peter Falk's "Columbo" persona: "Lyonne has said she wouldn’t mind playing her crime-solving, b.s.-detecting detective for decades to come," says Glenn Whipp, "and I’d gladly take a front row seat at the retirement home to watch her.”

The category seems ripe for some new blood, with Selena Gomez ("Only Murders in the Building"), Devery Jacobs ("Reservation Dogs") and Rose McIver ("Ghosts") among those deftly leading or serving as key cogs in top ensembles (though neither Jacobs nor McIver received first-round votes). Jenna Ortega's work in "Wednesday" is certainly buzzworthy, but some controversies surrounding the show may derail her bid.

1. Quinta Brunson ("Abbott Elementary")

2. Natasha Lyonne ("Poker Face")

3. Christina Applegate ("Dead to Me")

4. Bridget Everett ("Somebody Somewhere")

5. Robin Thede ("A Black Lady Sketch Show")

6. Jenna Ortega ("Wednesday")

7. (tie) Selena Gomez ("Only Murders in the Building")

7. (tie) Kerry Washington ("UnPrisoned")

9. Rachel Brosnahan ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

10. (tie) Linda Cardellini ("Dead to Me")

10. (tie) Maya Rudolph ("Loot")

12. (tie) Rachel Bloom ("Reboot")

13. (tie) Tatiana Maslany (“She-Hulk: Attorney at Law”)

13. (tie) Ms. Pat ("The Ms. Pat Show")

The category was absolutely loaded last year and all six nominees from 2022 are eligible again this year.

Donald Glover (“Atlanta"), Bill Hader (“Barry”), Nicholas Hoult ("The Great"), Jason Sudeikis (“Ted Lasso”) and comedy legends Steve Martin and Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”) are all in the mix. Glover, Hader and Sudeikis are all previous winners in these roles, as well as for talents besides acting (Glover also for directing, Hader also for writing and two-time acting winner Sudeikis as "Ted Lasso's" executive producer). That's a formidable group. The Round-1 leader, Hader, also directed "Barry's" entire final season — he has won a DGA award for each of the show's previous three seasons.

However, "The Bear's" Jeremy Allen White has been cleaning up on the awards circuit (winning the SAG and Critics' Choice, among other honors), making it hard to deny him a spot in the nominees circle. Ramy Youssef ("Ramy"), Adam Scott ("Party Down") and John Larroquette (the resurrected "Night Court" — not a zombie show) are all eligible again, and Bob Odenkirk is a dual threat between the final season of "Better Call Saul" and the role he seems born to play in "Lucky Hank." And surprisingly, neither Hoult nor Glover received first-round votes, potentially opening spots in the Emmy race.

In fact, the most passionate support in the panelists' comments was fairly evenly divided between White and ... Delroy Lindo of "UnPrisoned."

“If you haven’t seen Delroy Lindo’s comedic turn in ‘UnPrisoned,’ add it to your watchlist ASAP," says Trey Mangum. Kristen Baldwin, fingers tightly crossed, says, “I’m just going to get deep into magical thinking here and imagine a world where people realize ‘Only Murders in the Building’ is hacky and overrated, so they give those lead actor slots to Delroy Lindo ... and Keegan-Michael Key.”

1. Bill Hader ("Barry")

2. Jeremy Allen White ("The Bear")

3. Delroy Lindo ("UnPrisoned")

4. Mohammed Amer ("Mo")

5. Keegan-Michael Key ("Reboot")

6. Steve Martin ("Only Murders in the Building")

7. Jason Segel ("Shrinking")

8. Martin Short ("Only Murders in the Building")

9. Jason Sudeikis ("Ted Lasso")

10. (tie) Drew Tarver ("The Other Two")

10. (tie) Ramy Youssef ("Ramy")

12. Sam Richardson ("The Afterparty")

13. Ben Wang ("American Born Chinese")

Of 2022's eight nominees, five are in the running again this year (assuming "Ted Lasso's" Sarah Niles would be considered a "guest," rather than "supporting" performer in 2023). Three-time winner Alex Borstein (including twice for “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”); Janelle James and reigning champ Sheryl Lee Ralph (“Abbott Elementary”); Juno Temple and previous winner Hannah Waddingham (“Ted Lasso”) all have to be considered frontrunners to repeat their nominee status (although Temple didn't get any support from the panel in Round 1).

That likely leaves three slots for a host of worthy candidates. Sarah Goldberg of "Barry" is a previous nominee and delivers her most daring work to date in the show's final season, but will voters be put off by the performance — and really, the whole final season — feeling much more like dramatic, rather than comedic work? Kristen Baldwin says Goldberg "somehow gets better every season, as Sally’s increasingly fragile psyche disintegrates before our eyes." Zazie Beetz could be in line for her second nod for "Atlanta's" final season. The ensembles of "The Bear," "Saturday Night Live" and "Ghosts" all have multiple contenders in their ranks.

Tracy Brown advocates for "SNL's" Ego Nwodim, "whose first Lisa from Temecula sketch I have rewatched so often I have it memorized. I’m probably watching it again as you read this." Matt Roush says, "while I know the bloom has faded from ‘The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,’ its comeback final season was once again elevated by Alex Borstein’s terrific portrayal of the fearsome Susie, whose Friars Club roast was one for the ages.”

1. Janelle James ("Abbott Elementary")

2. Sheryl Lee Ralph (“Abbott Elementary”)

3. Ayo Edebiri ("The Bear")

4. Sarah Goldberg ("Barry")

5. Jessica Williams ("Shrinking")

6. Lisa Ann Walter ("Abbott Elementary")

7. Molly Shannon ("The Other Two")

8. Hannah Waddingham ("Ted Lasso")

9. Alex Borstein ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

10. Paulina Alexis ("Reservation Dogs")

11. Zazie Beetz ("Atlanta")

12. Ego Nwodim ("Saturday Night Live")

13. (tie) Ginger Gonzaga ("She-Hulk: Attorney at Law")

13. (tie) Michaela Jae Rodriguez ("Loot")

Yes, all eight nominees from 2022 are again eligible: Anthony Carrigan and previous winner Henry Winkler of “Barry”; Toheeb Jimoh, Nick Mohammed and reigning two-time champ Brett Goldstein of "Ted Lasso"; four-time winner (including once for this role) Tony Shalhoub (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”); Tyler James Williams (“Abbott Elementary”) and Bowen Yang (“Saturday Night Live”) are all in the running.

So naturally, the panel supported 21 contenders in Round 1. Shockingly, neither Shalhoub nor Yang were among them.

Yes, some of these are from beloved shows that are ending or are possibly ending. Yes, there are also previous nominees (Stephen Root of "Barry," Kenan Thompson of "Saturday Night Live" and James Lance, Sam Richardson, Brendan Hunt and Jeremy Swift of "Ted Lasso" among them) including a recent Oscar nominee (Brian Tyree Henry of "Atlanta") all in the running as well. And there are plenty of long-deserving, never-nominated contenders in the mix (Harvey Guillén and Kayvan Novak of “What We Do in the Shadows” come to mind).

But rolling into the race like a giant boulder is none other than Harrison Ford. Much more than his laconic performance in the drama "1923," his hilarious turn as the tough-love psychiatrist/mentor in "Shrinking" shows a side of the storied veteran we haven't seen before. And it's one that is easy to embrace, as well. He's the not-so-secret weapon in that show, and a likely slam dunk for a nomination — and likely the early frontrunner to win and collect his first-ever Emmy. The panelists are all over Ford, calling his performance a "perfectly curmudgeonly turn," saying he's "delightful as the gruff and reluctant mentor" and that he "stole every scene in 'Shrinking.' "

Lorraine Ali stumps for Carrigan — “It’s now or never for NoHo Hank, academy voters. So do your duty ... Carrigan created an indelible TV comedy character that will be remembered for years to come." Tracy Brown says of Guillén, his "vampire familiar-turned-bodyguard Guillermo was particularly great in Season 4." Trey Mangum asks, "Who wouldn’t be down to see recent Oscar nominee Brian Tyree Henry nab that Emmy that has eluded him?"

1. Harrison Ford ("Shrinking")

2. Anthony Carrigan ("Barry')

3. Tyler James Williams ("Abbott Elementary")

4. Brian Tyree Henry ("Atlanta")

5. Brett Goldstein ("Ted Lasso")

6. Ebon Moss-Bacharach ("The Bear")

7. (tie) Chris Perfetti ("Abbott Elementary")

7. (tie) Henry Winkler ("Barry")

9. LaKeith Stanfield ("Atlanta")

10. Stephen Root ("Barry")

11. (tie) William Stanford Davis ("Abbott Elementary")

11. (tie) Harvey Guillen ("What We Do in the Shadows")

12. Toheeb Jimoh ("Ted Lasso")

13. (tie) Paul Walter Hauser ("The Afterparty")

13. (tie) Johnny Knoxville ("Reboot")

13. (tie) James Marsden ("Jury Duty")

13. (tie) Ke Huy Quan ("American Born Chinese")

17. (tie) Nick Mohammed ("Ted Lasso")

17. (tie) Josh Segarra ("The Other Two")

19. (tie) Benjamin Bratt ("Poker Face")

19. (tie) Vico Ortiz ("Our Flag Means Death")

19. (tie) Kenan Thompson ("Saturday Night Live")

Unlike last year, when "Dopesick" was the frontrunner and "The White Lotus" took no prisoners, this year's limited/anthology series crop doesn't seem to have clear favorites. "George & Tammy" may be the best bet for a nom here because it's a biopic about two country music legends and boasts real star power, with Oscar nominee Michael Shannon and Oscar winner Jessica Chastain. All the other top picks have pretty good arguments for and against them.

Netflix's "Beef," a late switch from the comedy category, is considered well done and sits atop the Round-1 BuzzMeter list, but past horrific comments by supporting actor David Choe may have made it tougher to digest. Peacock's "Mrs. Davis," a late switch from drama (one would think its switch would have been from drama to comedy, but here it is in limited) is bonkers, inventive and gives Betty Gilpin the lead role she has long deserved, but it doesn't seem to have made a big splash. HBO Max's "Love and Death" is a story that was just told last year in Hulu's "Candy," which came and went without a trace despite committed work by its three leads. Similarly, HBO Max's "White House Plumbers" is another take on Watergate, right on the heels of last year's "Gaslit," which was not only a fresh angle on the story, but sported a fine cast including Oscar winners Julia Roberts and Sean Penn — and also slipped into the ether with little fanfare.

"Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story" dropped on Netflix between two documentaries on the notorious serial killer (one on Netflix and one on Discovery in 2020). It earned raves for Evan Peters' lead performance, but not only competes for attention with those documentaries, but with Apple TV'+s serial-killer serial, "Black Bird" — which earned raves (and awards) for Paul Walter Hauser's supporting performance. "Black Bird" is No. 2 in the panel's Round-1 estimation. Matt Roush calls it "likely ... the miniseries to beat."

A less-heralded entry is another adaptation — Prime Video's gender-swapped "Dead Ringers," which could be carried into contention by Rachel Weisz's dazzling lead performances as twin gynecologists in whom madness is gestating. Trey Mangum rings the bell for "The Best Man: The Final Chapters," saying it "brought a classic Black film franchise to a close with a limited series, and it should be talked about more among critics for what it accomplished."

And watch out for the late-releasing "A Small Light," a new perspective on the Anne Frank story. Glenn Whipp calls it "a moving portrait of courage and resolve, inspiring and illuminative.”

1. "Beef"

2. "Black Bird"

3. "The Patient"

4. "A Small Light"

5. (tie) "The Best Man: The Final Chapters"

5. (tie) "Mrs. Davis"

5. (tie) "This is Going to Hurt"

8. "Five Days at Memorial"

9. (tie) "Daisy Jones & The Six"

9. (tie) "From Scratch"

9. (tie) "Tiny Beautiful Things"

12. (tie) "Dead Ringers"

12. (tie) "George and Tammy"

13. (tie) "Fleishman Is in Trouble"

13. (tie) "Love and Death"

The category that invites one to climb the highest mountain, adopt the lotus pose and ponder, "What is a TV movie, anyway?" is back and more whatever than ever.

While many panelists question why the category still exists, some find things to praise about the contenders. There are some highly regarded comedies. Of "Weird: The Al Yankovic Story," which premiered last year at TIFF, Glenn Whipp says, "In a genre that has all but given up the ghost, ‘Weird’s’ daring, relentless ridiculousness makes it the clear standout." "Jerry and Marge Go Large" pairs Bryan Cranston and Annette Bening (who shows off killer comic chops). "Fire Island" gives new meaning to pride and prejudice. Tracy Brown says it "feels like a lifetime ago that the Jane Austen-inspired queer rom-com ‘Fire Island’ premiered, but it remains one of my favorites of 2022.”

Also in the soup are are at least three prominent sequels to theatrical features ("Disenchanted," "Hocus Pocus 2" and "Prey") — four if you count "Reno 911: It's a Wonderful Heist" — with "Prey" easily being the most-liked of the bunch: It's seen as an improvement on the "Predator" films that spawned it, with lead Amber Midthunder ready for star status (panelists call the movie "ambitious" and even "fantastic"). There are a couple of re-imaginings of features ("Disney's Pinocchio," "Father of the Bride"), TV show extensions ("A Waltons Thanksgiving") and other stuff at which you may wonder.

1. "Weird: The Al Yankovic Story"

2. "Prey"

3. (tie) "Disney's Pinocchio"

3. (tie) "Fire Island"

3. (tie) "Dolly Parton's Mountain Magic Christmas"

6. (tie) "Boston Strangler"

6. (tie) "Reality"

8. "The People We Hate at the Wedding"

9. "Jerry and Marge Go Large"

While the limited series and TV movie categories may lack clear frontrunners, there are some performances in them that seem like slam dunks for awards notice. Jessica Chastain ("George & Tammy" — "Chastain brings a warm and empathetic understanding to Wynette’s larger-than-life story," says Glenn Whipp) and Rachel Weisz ("Dead Ringers" — "a stunning dual performance," says Matt Roush) are Oscar winners executing high-degree-of-difficulty work with considerable aplomb.

Meanwhile, Trey Mangum says, “ ‘Swarm’ may have been divisive for some, but one thing that wasn’t was Dominique Fishback’s tour-de-force performance." Tracy Brown calls Amber Midthunder "a bona fide action star. It’s the type of role and performance that tends to get (unfairly) overlooked in awards conversations, but ‘Prey’ has layers of character-driven nuance." And Kristen Baldwin allows that the byzantine wackiness of "Mrs. Davis" may lose some viewers, but assures that "Betty Gilpin gives an astounding comedic and dramatic performance [in] a hilarious and moving story about family, faith and Buffalo Wild Wings.”

1. Rachel Weisz (“Dead Ringers”)

2. (tie) Jessica Chastain (“George and Tammy”)

2. (tie) Dominique Fishback (“Swarm”)

2. (tie) Ali Wong ("Beef")

5. Bel Powley (“A Small Light”)

6. Elizabeth Olsen (“Love and Death”)

7. Sanaa Lathan (Best Man: The Final Chapters)

8. (tie) Vera Farmiga (“Five Days at Memorial”)

8. (tie) Betty Gilpin ("Mrs. Davis")

9. Kathryn Hahn (“Tiny Beautiful Things”)

10. (tie) Emily Blunt (“The English”)

10. (tie) Zoe Saldana (“From Scratch”)

11. Amber Midthunder (“Prey”)

As with the lead-actress category, the lead-actor race sports several big-name, splashy performances that are sometimes more highly regarded than the limited series or TV movies from which they came.

The first-round leader is Steve Carell as a therapist whose new patient reveals himself to be a serial killer in "The Patient"; Carell may follow in the footsteps of last year's winner, Michael Keaton, as performers originally known as comic actors cementing reputations as high-level, award-winning dramatic actors. "This might be Carell’s best dramatic work," says Glenn Whipp.

Steven Yeun ("Beef") and Taron Egerton ("Black Burd") get a lot of support, but Daniel Radcliffe (in "Weird") and Ben Whishaw (in "This Is Going to Hurt") seem to generate the greatest enthusiasm from the panel.

Trey Mangum calls the Emmy "undoubtedly Daniel Radcliffe's trophy" and Kristen Baldwin says, "Wouldn’t it be fun to see Harry Potter himself, Daniel Radcliffe, take home an Emmy for playing ‘Weird Al’ Yankovic? (What a sentence!)" Meanwhile, Matt Roush calls Whishaw "a deserving long shot" and Tracy Brown says he delivers a "strong performance" and is "definitely one of the draws of ‘This Is Going to Hurt.’ " If you're wondering what to watch or not watch, these panelists put Whishaw's work in the "See" section.

1. Steve Carell (“The Patient”)

2. Daniel Radcliffe (“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story”)

3. (tie) Steven Yeun ("Beef")

3. (tie) Taron Egerton (“Black Bird”)

5. Michael Shannon (“George and Tammy”)

6. Ben Whishaw (“This Is Going to Hurt”)

7. Morris Chestnut (“The Best Man: The Final Chapters”)

8. Taye Diggs (“The Best Man: The Final Chapters”)

9. (tie) Kumail Nanjiani (“Welcome to Chippendales”)

9. (tie) Joel Kim Booster ("Fire Island")

11. Joshua Jackson ("Fatal Attraction")

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.