2023 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie

·3 min read

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 15 to June 26, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. The Creative Arts Emmy Awards will be presented over two consecutive nights on Saturday, September 9 and Sunday, September 10, with an edited presentation of the ceremonies to be broadcast on FXX at a later date. Finally, the 75th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards take place on Monday, September 18, and air live on FOX at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

The State of the Race

Though “Monster: ​​The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” star Evan Peters winning a second Emmy for his chilling portrayal of the Wisconsin-born serial killer may seem like a forgone conclusion given the Netflix anthology series’ unprecedented success, he will actually face plenty of stiff competition in the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie category.

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For example, Taron Egerton has been campaigning hard for the Apple TV+ prison drama “Black Bird,” even appearing at the Governors Awards, an Oscars event last fall, with only the limited series to promote. Daniel Radcliffe was able to earn some winter award season nominations for his titular role in the zany “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” biopic, which is increasingly rare for stars of TV movies. And just recently, “This Is Going to Hurt” lead nominations for the 2023 BAFTA TV Awards, and that show completely hinges on Ben Whishaw’s lead performance.

The main two shows that still have the potential to shake up the Limited Series races are HBO’s “White House Plumbers” and HBO Max’s “Love and Death.” Even though both are based on real life stories that the Emmy-voting audience already saw versions of as recently as last season, it is exciting to see what actors like Woody Harrelson and Justin Theroux do with the former’s material, about the Watergate scandal. And Jesse Plemons made a name for himself by always delivering riveting performances in Emmy-winning shows like “Friday Night Lights,” “Breaking Bad,” and “Fargo,” but has never won an Emmy himself, so a possible third nomination playing the man who had an affair with the infamous Candy Montgomery could be the charm.

Current Contenders (In Alphabetical Order):
Steve Carell, “The Patient” (FX)
Sam Claflin, “Daisy Jones and the Six” (Amazon Prime Video)
Taron Egerton, “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)
Jesse Eisenberg, “Fleishman Is in Trouble” (FX)
Woody Harrelson, “White House Plumbers” (HBO)
Jake Lacy, “A Friend of the Family” (Peacock)
Ewan McGregor, “Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
Kumail Nanjiani, “Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)
Evan Peters, “Monster: ​​The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
Jesse Plemons, “Love and Death” (HBO Max)
Daniel Radcliffe, “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (Roku Channel)
Liev Schreiber, “A Small Light” (National Geographic)
Michael Shannon, “George and Tammy” (Showtime)
Justin Theroux, “White House Plumbers” (HBO)
Ben Whishaw, “This is Going to Hurt” (AMC+)

More Limited Series and TV Movie Category Predictions:
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Outstanding TV Movie
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie

To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 75th Emmy Awards click here.

Last Year’s Winner: Michael Keaton, “Dopesick”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: If Nanjiani were to win (and we’re not counting FX-produced shows), Hulu would be the first network in 13 years to win this category two years in a row.
Notable Ineligible Series: Jon Hamm, “Fargo” (Season 5 was not eligible); Bryan Tyree Henry, “Class of ’09” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Jesse Garcia, “Flamin’ Hot” (the film will not premiere in time to be eligible)

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