The 2023 Kentucky Derby sets up as a battle between horse racing’s top two trainers

When you get right down to it, Saturday’s Kentucky Derby 149 could boil down to two trainers at the top of their game going head-to-head in the world’s most famous horse race.

It’s Todd Pletcher vs. Brad Cox.

And everybody else.

“We’re blessed to be in this position with these three colts,” said Pletcher after Monday’s post-position draw.

“I think we’ve got a good shot,” Cox said. “I like all four of my colts.”

And why not? Represented among the two trainers are the top three favorites in this year’s field, as well as winners of six Grade 1 stakes and runners-up in three, plus a sterling reputation of coaxing big performances in the most important races.

Pletcher trains the two top horses in the Kentucky Derby 149 morning-line list of favorites. Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Forte is 3-1. Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes winner Tapit Trice is 5-1. Pletcher also trains Grade 2 Louisiana Derby winner Kingsbarns, who is 12-1 according to Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia.

Cox will send four colts to the starting gate on Saturday, led by Grade 1 Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire at 8-1. Cox also trains Blue Grass runner-up Verifying at 15-1, Grade 1 Wood Memorial runner-up Hit Show at 30-1 after drawing the dreaded No. 1 post position, and long shot Jace’s Road at 50-1.

That these two men have deep stables is not even the slightest surprise, mind you.

The 55-year-old Pletcher is both a Hall of Famer and the reigning Eclipse Award winner for best trainer, an honor he’s received eight times, including a stretch of four straight years from 2004-07. The 43-year-old Cox has won the Eclipse twice, first in 2020 and then again in 2021.

Pletcher has entered 62 horses in the Kentucky Derby, dating back to 2000. He’s won twice, first with Super Saver in 2010, then with Always Dreaming in 2017. Of those 60-plus entrants, only 15 have gone off at better than 10-1, however. Super Saver was 8-1. Always Dreaming was 9-2. Compare that to Bob Baffert, who has watched 23 of his 34 Derby entries go off at better than 10-1.

“We’ve only run one favorite,” Pletcher said this week. “That was Always Dreaming.”

Cox won the Kentucky Derby on his first try when Mandaloun was declared the 2021 victor after Medina Spirit was disqualified following a failed drug test. Cox has run five Derby horses over the last two seasons, including the 2021 favorite Essential Quality (3-1) who finished fourth.

Pletcher has won the Belmont Stakes three times, with the filly Rags to Riches in 2007, with Palace Malice in 2013 and Mo Donegal last year. Cox won the 2021 Belmont with Essential Quality.

Each trainer has won the Breeders’ Cup Classic once. Pletcher trained 2019 winner Vino Rosso. Cox trained 2021 winner Knicks Go.

In 2020, Cox tied Richard Mandella’s 2003 record of four Breeders’ Cup wins in one weekend by duplicating the feat at Keeneland. Overall, Cox has eight Breeders’ Cup wins to his credit. His first came in 2018. Pletcher owns 12 Breeders’ Cup victories. His first came in 2004.

The two have differing personalities. The younger Cox is more talkative, more animated compared to Pletcher’s famously calm, cool and collected disposition.

“I wish I could be a little more like that,” Cox said. “You can’t change who you are, but he’s a cool dude.”

And as members of the same profession, each has tons of respect for the other.

“I think Brad and his team have done a phenomenal job,” Pletcher said last week. “Not only this year, leading into the Derby and it looks like he’s going to have four in there, but what he’s done with his stable over the last 10 years, especially the last five years, has been phenomenal.”

“Longevity,” said Cox when asked what impressed him about Pletcher’s career. “He’s done this for a while and been really, really good at it. He’s arguably the greatest of all time. He’s accomplished more from a dollar standpoint than anybody.”

There is one Kentucky Derby difference. Pletcher has twice experienced the thrill of seeing his colt cross the finish line first. Cox’s one winner actually finished second on the track in 2021. That’s not the same as enjoying the thrill of posing in the winner’s circle with a garland of roses around his horse’s neck.

“That’s just not really something to get excited about, the way I see it.,” Cox said. “There’s no celebration. There is no post-race, win picture. I think, in Bill Mott’s case (with Country House winning by DQ in 2019) their decision was made 20 minutes after the Derby, not six months or whenever.

“So, totally different deal, and do look forward, hopefully, this year to winning it. I think we got some really good shots. And I’m sure it’d be a feeling like no other.”

On paper, Pletcher appears to have the better shot.

“I would say, in terms of pari-mutuel support, it’s probably going to be the strongest team that we’ve brought,” Pletcher said. “I think you could say that’s the deepest squad we’ve put up so far.”

As we all know, however, the Kentucky Derby isn’t run on paper.

“Hopefully Todd’s not going to add No. 3,” said Cox with a smile. “I wish him luck, but I hope we win.”

Kentucky Derby

When: 6:57 p.m. Saturday

Where: Churchill Downs

TV: NBC and Peacock

Purse: $3 million (Grade 1)

Distance: 1 1/4 miles

For: 3-year-old Thoroughbreds

Saturday’s weather in Louisville: High of 71. Low of 53. Chance of morning showers, then cloudy in the afternoon.

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