With 2024 elections looming, here's how Laura Kelly plans to break up GOP supermajorities

The 2024 legislative session begins Monday, and Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is hoping it will be her last one facing Republican supermajorities in the Kansas Legislature.

Kelly plans to use her new Middle of the Road Political Action Committee to break the slim GOP supermajorities in the House and Senate.

"That is why we created the PAC, was with the intention of breaking the supermajority," she said. "It is difficult to govern — regardless of what party you are — if there is a supermajority that can, essentially, they have veto power. We need to eliminate that and get us back to being the way Kansas used to be, which was the parties came together and negotiated a compromise and moved on."

Kelly's PAC could pressure lawmakers who would otherwise vote the party line on certain issues.

"If a legislator says, 'Yes, I'm for Medicaid expansion, I'm for x, y and z, but I can't because I'll be primaried.' Kelly can say, 'We've got this PAC and you're not alone,'" said Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University. "That's a dynamic to this session that I have not seen before."

Republican leadership is skeptical that Kelly's PAC will be able to flip the supermajority.

"They said the same thing in 2018, that they're going to take out the supermajority," said House Speaker Dan Hawkins, R-Wichita. "They said the same thing in 2020. They said the same thing in 2022, and in 2022, they had their best chance because they had all those people come out and kill Value Them Both. I do believe that not only will we keep our supermajority, we're probably going to grow it by two."

Democrats hoping to capitalize on popularity of Medicaid expansion

Kelly is aggressively targeting Medicaid expansion for the coming year. If the Legislature doesn't pass Medicaid expansion this year — and it appears it will fail for a sixth year in a row — Kelly thinks it'll be on voters' minds.

"We know that anywhere between 70% to 80% of Kansans want Medicaid expanded," she said. "All 165 legislators will be up for reelection next November and will be hearing from their constituents. I expect that if it doesn't pass, it'll be the No. 1 election issue."

Beatty said the provisions in Kelly's Medicaid expansion proposal puts Republicans in a tough spot. Democrats are banking on the popularity of Medicaid expansion, and could use it as a divisive issue in the 2024 elections if it fails to pass.

"I think we're seeing a set up here that if it doesn't get even a fair hearing, not for every race but for Johnson County and up in northeast Kansas and some other districts, that it will be the No. 1 issue," Beatty said.

Hawkins said he thinks the polling questions are biased, and Kansans often don't support Medicaid expansion once it's explained.

There is a chance Kansans won't see tax cuts in an election year

Kansas politicians are singing the same tune heading into the 2024 legislative session as they all want tax relief for their constituents. But Republicans and Democrats are on different verses and may never harmonize about what taxes to cut and how.

There are stark divisions, primarily over a proposed single-rate income tax, which is also known as a flat tax. Masterson and Hawkins have vowed to push it again this year, while Kelly has promised not to sign it, and Republicans don't appear to have unified supermajorities.

If no tax cuts are passed, it could be a political liability come election season — with finger pointing to go around.

"I think if no substantive tax cuts are passed you might get a pretty angry electorate, because that'd be two straight years," Beatty said.

Could Kelly, Masterson and Hawkins find compromises?

The governor and GOP leadership could look to find compromises, and they all say they have working relationships.

"I actually have a pretty decent relationship with both of them," Kelly said of Masterson and Hawkins.

That's thanks to her time as a legislator, she said, where she worked in committees with Masterson on the budget and Hawkins on health legislation.

"We did what we do now," Kelly said. "I meet with them very regularly. We don't always come to consensus, but we keep each other informed and there are no surprises."

Masterson ribbed Kelly for describing the new laws she signs as "bipartisan."

"Every bill we send to her, I always get a crack out of those that report where she signed a bipartisan bill on this," Masterson said. "Well, there's not a bill she could sign that's not bipartisan. We're a supermajority of Republican legislators, so if you like what's going on, you're welcome."

"All jokes aside," Masterson said, "We even have a good working relationship with the (Kelly) administration, I feel. We don't agree on hardly anything, candidly, but we have internally had many meetings trying to move Kansas in the right direction. I think we're doing that."

Republicans can use supermajorities to override Kelly vetoes

Despite Kelly winning reelection in 2022, Republicans retained their supermajorities, enabling them to enact some of their legislative agenda over her vetoes in 2023.

"We could have folded, we could have just said when Derek (Schmidt) lost that that's all out the window," Hawkins said.

Instead, they enacted anti-transgender laws, passed anti-abortion laws and funding and heightened work requirements on food stamps, among other successful overrides.

Republicans will likely call on their supermajorities multiple times in 2024, pushing a flat income tax, more anti-transgender legislation, school choice and other conservative priorities that failed last session.

More: Division over this tax cut idea could mean no relief for any Kansans in 2024

Masterson said the election year with the GOP supermajorities at stake doesn't change the political strategy.

"Election years do bring unique dynamics," Masterson said. "Especially as you have some that aren't running again, so they don't have to make decisions that are accountable to their voters, although they should. And then you have some that are running in their elections and that can affect how they might make decisions.

"But the truth is it doesn't really change the strategy from a leadership standpoint and from a Republican Party standpoint. We have a platform, we're going to try to move the agenda, we're gonna take some risks, probably very similar votes, and we're going to pass some of those things and just see if anybody's willing to change their mind."

House Minority Leader Vic Miller, D-Topeka, said there is too much political bullying by Republican leadership.

"We have masters of bullying running the House and the Senate," Miller said. "I don't have to worry about it, but I pity the people that do. ... They're just politically afraid to do the right thing, and they care more about protecting their current position than they do about doing the right thing."

"But you're at fault, you meaning the collective population," he said, addressing a forum of the local League of Women Voters. "You need to ferret out the bullies and not reward them by replacing people when they had the courage to stand up to the bullying."

Hawkins says election years are less consequential for members of the House who serve two-year terms.

"The House is never far out of an election," he said. "We are literally always in campaign mode. I call the House a very battle-hardened House when it comes to campaigning.

"That being said, there's some things that you probably don't want to mess with during a campaign year, but I don't really have any of those on my own agenda."

Kansas Chamber CEO Alan Cobb said expressed doubt that the election year will have much effect on what comes up during the session.

"I look at some of the bills that were passed or vetoed last year, I think some of the postcard things that Republicans or Democrats are using, their votes are already out there," he said.

Chamber lobbyist Eric Stafford noted that the legislative calendar is "compressed" this year and "it feels like it's going to be a very, very fast session."

Democrats feel momentum going into 2024

While Kansas Republican Party Chairman Mike Brown has touted the GOP's victories in 2023 local elections, the outcomes outside of Wichita's mayoral race where a Republican-backed Libertarian won were widely viewed as lackluster for the GOP.

Combined with Kelly's reelection in 2022, as well as voters resoundingly rejecting an anti-abortion constitutional amendment, Democrats have momentum going into 2024 campaigns.

"Democrats in Kansas have been buoyed by the abortion vote," Beatty said. "I think some Democrats for many years in Kansas kind of put their heads down and said, 'Well it's a conservative state, and this is difficult.' Then that vote happened and their heads went up and they said, 'This is a state that's open to some other ideas.'"

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has identified Kansas as a worthwhile investment, joining the effort to break the GOP supermajorities.

Flipping Republican-held seats in Johnson County is widely viewed as the most likely path for Democrats to break the supermajority, and Sen. Mike Thompson, R-Shawnee, believes he is a target.

"In 2024, I am the left's top target to take out once again," he told supporters in a fundraising email last month. He added that "we must do everything in our power to retain this seat."

"National Democrats who want to bring Joe Biden's policies to Kansas are spending hundreds of thousands to break the Republican super-majority," Thompson said. "The result will make it so we cannot get anything done without the governor's signature."

So is Masterson concerned about the next elections, especially in Johnson County, given the results of the last elections?

"I mean, yes and no," Masterson said. "We're always concerned about Johnson because Johnson, it appears to be shifting, but it appears to be more divergent to me. They're pocketing up; reds getting red and blues getting blue.

"I don't know that the local elections that happened, we're much more affected by what's going on on the national scene, especially since this is going to be a presidential election year. I think the politics nationally affect us way more than the local election did this last cycle."

Jason Alatidd is a Statehouse reporter for The Topeka Capital-Journal. He can be reached by email at jalatidd@gannett.com. Follow him on X @Jason_Alatidd.

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Laura Kelly plans to break GOP supermajorities in Kansas. Here's how