A 2024 frenzy? How RFK Jr. could chip away at Donald Trump and Joe Biden's strategies

The 2024 presidential election could feature an independent candidate winning electoral votes, rather than just being a spoiler.

In a Suffolk University/USA TODAY national poll released today, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. begins his journey to become an independent candidate in double digits. He's fueled by an increase of independent voter registration and ranked choice voting in a handful of states.

In a four-way matchup among named candidates for president, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump were tied at 37%, with Kennedy receiving 13% and independent Cornel West at 4%, with 8% undecided and 2% refusing a response.

With Kennedy out of the picture, Trump would jump ahead: Trump 41%, Biden 39%, West 7%, and undecided 10%, using “second choice” preferences.

By removing West and leaving RFK Jr. in, Biden leads: Biden 38%, Trump 37%, Kennedy 14%, and undecided 9%. The presence of both Kennedy and West as independents produces an offsetting picture at this point, and their real impact is founded on which state ballots each qualifies for ahead of the election.

Can you hear the frenzy of activity in the Democratic and Republican war rooms right now?

Kennedy has become the new face of the independent voter, for now. Among just independents, he polls at 23%, within that statistical margin of error. And among independent women, Kennedy (30%) leads both Biden (27%) and Trump (22%).

The number of self-identified independents nationwide has grown over the past 20 years from 31% to 49%, according to Gallup, compared to Democrats or Republicans (25% each). Hypothetically, if independents rallied around Kennedy, they could vault him into the top tier of contention. And we know from multiple polls this year that two-thirds of all voters do not want a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024. But will it happen?

Exclusive poll: Biden and Trump tie at 37% as RFK Jr. costs Trump a narrow lead

There have been numerous studies indicating that independent voters really have Democratic or Republican leanings, which is why third-party candidates have failed miserably over the past 30 years and have become the poster children of “spoiler.”

The state with the highest percentage of independent voters is… Massachusetts, home of the Kennedy family. The Bay state boasts 60% of its registered voters as independents, followed by 30% Democrats and 10% Republicans. But Democrats needn’t fear. This solid blue state has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate over the last 40 years, though it has elected Republican governors in 6 of the last 9 gubernatorial elections.

If you look at the states with the highest percentages of independents, many are northeast blue states like Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey and Connecticut. They will most likely vote again for Biden, even if his margins of victory are lower.

But there are two small states that have many independents and now use ranked choice voting, which might tip their electoral votes to RFK Jr.

In ranked choice voting, voters rank all candidates on the ballot. if there are four candidates for president voters could select their first, second, third, and fourth choices on their ballot instead of picking one. If a candidate does not reach 50% in the first round, there is a second round, with the lowest candidate eliminated but the second-choice votes for that candidate are allocated to the remaining candidates. If a candidate still has not reached 50%, the election continues in successive rounds.

Let's break down two states where this system could play a major role.

Maine: Biden won Maine by 9 points in 2020, and 3 of its 4 electoral votes, due to its congressional allocation. Only 35% of Maine’s voters are independents, but ranked choice voting could change the outcome.

Theoretically, if Joe Biden led Kennedy 42%-32% with Trump in third place at 26%, Kennedy could win because Trump voters prefer Kennedy over Biden by a 23-1 margin, according to the poll. In the hypothetical example above, most of Trump’s votes would reallocate to Kennedy who could easily top 50% and end up winning at least 3 of the 4 electoral votes.

Alaska: Trump won Alaska by 10 points in 2020, but currently a whopping 55% of The Last Frontier’s voters are independents, 26% Republicans, and 14% Democrats. Alaska just implemented ranked choice voting, and could see results similar to the above, if Trump led Kennedy 40% percent to 31% with Biden at 29%, Kennedy could prevail with more than 50% of the vote – this time taking away 3 sure Trump electoral votes.

Here’s an interesting twist: If Biden finished second to Trump with Kennedy third, Kennedy’s voters would break to Trump, and he would win Alaska again. But if Kennedy finished second to Trump with Biden third, Biden’s voters would push over the top and prevent Trump from winning those electoral votes. You may see Biden “propping up” Kennedy in Alaska!

RFK Jr. was the top “second choice” among the four candidates for president, according to our poll: RFK 26%, West 16%, Trump 6%, Biden 5%, undecided 36%, and 11% refused. So, it makes sense that in the ranked choice states – if RFK Jr. finishes first or second – Trump and Biden voters would prefer RFK over the other.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How RFK Jr. could chip away at Donald Trump, Joe Biden in 2024 race