The 2024 GOP race leaves donors cold, and other takeaways from FEC week.

The News

The third fundraising quarter of 2023 ended with a whimper, overshadowed by chaos in the House and war in Gaza. Candidates who had something embarrassing to admit, like Ron DeSantis’s primary war chest dwindling to $5 million, announced it before the Oct. 15 deadline; candidates who wanted to brag did so before the spotlight moved elsewhere.

But there was also big news buried in the FEC reports — both about key races and the overall political environment. Here’s what leapt off the page.

The View From GOP Presidential Candidates

Donald Trump had his best fundraising quarter of the year, boosted significantly by donations after his arraignment in Georgia — more than $7 million in a few days, some for the mugshot T-shirts that started showing up at his rallies. He lapped the field with $24.5 million, with nearly $37.6 million on hand.

Sounds impressive, until you realize that Trump raised slightly less than Sen. Bernie Sanders or Sen. Elizabeth Warren did over the same period four years ago. Small donors continue to zone out on this primary, at least relative to the interest they showed in the last competitive nomination fight. Nikki Haley’s best-ever quarterly total, $8.2 million, fell short of what Andrew Yang had raised in this quarter; Ron DeSantis raised $11.2 million, a bit less than Kamala Harris raised in the final months before her 2020 campaign fell apart.

Democrats and Republicans don’t run the same kind of campaigns, obviously: Every major candidate in this race is relying on a super PAC, for everything from field (Ron DeSantis’s Never Back Down) to TV ads (Nikki Haley’s Stand for America Fund) to a plan to buy TV ads replaced by a plan to spend on field (Tim Scott’s Trust in the Mission PAC).

But big donors are getting a little tired of investing in Trump challengers who’ve struggled to make the primary competitive. DeSantis’ fundraising tumbled by 45% since the second fundraising quarter, and Scott’s fell by 20%, as their most reliable donors got tapped out. With the notable exceptions of Haley and Christie, most challengers burned through cash — Mike Pence ended the quarter with $1.2 million to spend and half as much debt to pay.

The View From Senate Democrats

They raked it in. Three Democrats facing re-election next year — Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, Montana Sen. Jon Tester, and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin — are running in states Donald Trump carried twice, and easily. And Brown and Tester have never raised so much money this far out: $5.8 million for Brown, doubling his haul from the same quarter six years ago, and $5 million for Tester, nearly quadrupling what he raised in the summer of 2017.

Manchin was the outlier, raising $714,000, down from the same quarter six years ago. But both Republicans fighting to challenge him raised slightly less: multi-millionaire Gov. Jim Justice raised $613,000 and Rep. Alex Mooney raised about half as much, with both running behind their summer fundraising.

In every potentially competitive race, Democrats outraised Republicans — even former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell outraised Sen. Rick Scott by around $250,000 (Scott has $3 million on hand and enough personal wealth to offset any Democratic investment). Texas Rep. Colin Allred outraised Sen. Ted Cruz, pulling in about twice as much Beto O’Rourke had during the comparable stretch of his 2018 race. Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen, who narrowly unseated an incumbent to win in 2018, raised $2.7 million, more than her four GOP challengers had, combined.

In California, Democrats’ flushness has become a bit of a joke: Rep. Adam Schiff ended the quarter with $32.1 million cash on hand, comparable to the president’s own re-election campaign. (Biden raises money in tandem with the Democratic National Committee; altogether they have $91 million in the bank.)

The View From House Republicans

They haven’t been so good at electing speakers, but their fundraising issues — a problem through the 2020 election — have been solved for now. Just three House members targeted by the other party’s campaign committees raised more than $1 million. All three were Republicans: Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke, Michigan Rep. John James, and California Rep. Michelle Steel.

If you exclude indicted New York Rep. George Santos, who refunded more money than he raised, the average Republican fundraising total for a Republican in a seat carried by Joe Biden in 2020 was $598,515. For the five Democrats still holding seats carried by Donald Trump that year, the average was $602,479.

We’re looking at a very small competitive House map right now, and only a few incumbents got outraised. Most were Republicans, led by Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert, who woke up Democratic donors after nearly losing her 2022 race to Democrat Adam Frisch. She raised less than $900,000, while he raised $3.4 million.

Other incumbents outraised by Democrats kept it closer: New York Reps. Mike Lawler and Marc Molinaro, California Rep. Ken Calvert, Arizona Rep. Dave Schweikert, Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, and Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon. Just six Democrats got outraised, three of them in North Carolina, where Republicans plan to redraw the congressional map and make all three more vulnerable.

David’s view

There are years when domestic politics captivate everybody, and candidates run splashy campaigns that turn voters into new donors. That’s not really happening right now. We’re looking at a half-dozen truly competitive Senate races, maybe two dozen House races, and presidential primaries that most Americans feel comfortable ignoring, as they expect (and dread) a 2020 rematch.

We may also be looking at some Democratic burnout — a trend that started to pop up over the summer. The combined fundraising for the Biden campaign and the DNC was almost identical to what Barack Obama and the DNC raised in this same quarter twelve years ago; adjusted for inflation, the party has been raising less than it did when it last controlled the White House, and when its base was last this worried about holding on to it.

Notable

• In Roll Call, Herb Jackson adds up the numbers from the “defendant caucus” — less than a million for Sen. Bob Menendez (all before his latest indictment) and negative cash flow for Rep. George Santos.

• In Politico, Natalie Allison and Lisa Kashinsky talk to early-state Republicans about why the money and energy just isn’t there for presidential candidates; Ron DeSantis told New Hampshire reporters that voters hate being taken for granted during “his first swing through the state in seven weeks.”