With 2024 primaries looming, here’s how Biden, Trump and challengers are performing

With less than two weeks to go before the 2024 primary season kicks off, presidential candidates are scrambling to consolidate their support in key states.

Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump maintain strong leads in their respective races, while their challengers trail behind by double digits, indicating a 2020 rematch is likely, polls show.

Here’s a look at how candidates are polling in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — four states that hold primaries or caucuses in January or February.

Iowa

Trump boasts a strong lead in Iowa, where he is averaging 50% support, according to an analysis of recent polls by FiveThirtyEight, a poll monitoring website.

His GOP rivals — Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie — are lagging considerably behind, averaging 18%, 15%, 6% and 3%, respectively.

DeSantis, who has visited all 99 Iowa counties and been endorsed by Gov. Kim Reynolds, is betting on a win in the Hawkeye State in order to keep his campaign afloat, according to The Wall Street Journal.

However, with less than two weeks to go until the state’s Jan. 15 caucuses, he has so far failed to boost his poll numbers, averaging around 18% support in four recent polls.

DeSantis, Haley and Trump qualified for CNN’s Republican debate, which is scheduled to take place at Drake University in Des Moines on Jan. 10.

On the Democratic side, Biden maintains a large lead over long shot challengers Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips.

A sizable majority of voters, 69%, support Biden, while just 5% favor Williamson and 1% favor Phillips, according to a Dec. 20 poll from Emerson College that sampled 1,094 voters.

New Hampshire

Trump and Biden hold substantial, but narrower leads over their rivals in New Hampshire, which will hold its primaries on Jan. 23.

Trump is averaging 44% support, according to FiveThirtyEight, while Haley, in second place, is averaging 25%.

Bringing up the rear are Christie, DeSantis and Ramaswamy, who are averaging 11%, 7% and 5%, respectively.

Granite State Gov. Chris Sununu, who has endorsed Haley and campaigned with her, urged Christie to step aside to allow her a fighting chance against Trump, according to WCAX.

“This is a two-person race. It’s between Trump and Nikki Haley,” Sununu said, per the outlet. “The only person who wants Chris Christie to stay in the race is Donald Trump.”

Biden, who opted not to file to be on the state’s primary ballot in order to comply with Democratic National Committee primary rules, is still ahead in statewide polls.

A slim majority of likely Democratic primary voters, 51%, support the president, according to a Dec. 20 poll of 600 people from the American Research Group. Phillips and Williamson trailed him with 17% and 6% support, respectively.

Pollsters and Granite State political experts previously told McClatchy News that Biden is likely to garner the state’s Democratic nomination. But, if he loses or has a lackluster performance, it could prove worrisome for the president, who has faced some calls to step aside for a stronger candidate.

In the case of a poor showing, Biden “would really need to blow the doors off in South Carolina,” Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, told McClatchy News.

South Carolina

There have been no recent polls conducted of likely Democratic voters in South Carolina, but Democratic voters in the state strongly supported Biden in the 2020 primary. Biden’s decisive win in the state’s 2020 primary is widely credited with resurrecting his floundering campaign, which had been reeling from losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, according to the Washington Post.

On the Republican side, Trump boasts an average of 50% support, according to FiveThirtyEight, while Haley, a former Palmetto State governor, is polling in second place with an average of 21% support.

DeSantis, Ramaswamy and Christie trail behind with averages of 13%, 4% and 2%, respectively.

GOP White House hopefuls have largely steered clear of campaigning in South Carolina in recent weeks, according to The Post and Courier.

Nevada

Trump holds one of his largest leads in Nevada, where he received the support of 75% of voters, according to a Dec. 15 poll of 400 likely voters from McLaughlin & Associates.

DeSantis came in second with 15% support, while Christie and Ramaswamy were behind with 5% and 2%, respectively.

Haley’s support was not polled as she did not qualify to be on the state’s caucus ballot, according to the poll.

The caucus, which will be hosted by the state’s GOP party on Feb. 8, will come two days after the state-run primary, which could spell some confusion for voters, according to the Associated Press. However, only votes cast in the party-run caucus will count towards the nomination process.

No recent statewide polls have questioned voters on the Democratic primary field.

Williamson has repeatedly campaigned in the state, according to KTVN, while Phillips, on the other hand, plans to skip the Silver State’s primary, according to The Nevada Independent.

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