Which 2024 Republican will abortion opponents choose? These activists aren't making any promises.

Anti-abortion activists across the country are warning Republican presidential candidates seeking their support: endorsements come with expectations.

Since Roe v. Wade, the landmark Supreme Court case that guaranteed abortion rights in the United States, was overturned last summer, anti-abortion activists and organizations have their sights on a federal limit.

These groups say they're looking for a presidential candidate to cosign who has been outspoken about this goal and the issue of abortion. At least, more so than what they’ve seen from most GOP candidates so far in the 2024 race for the White House.

Here’s what the anti-abortion movement is saying about the crowded Republican field, and the guarantees they'll need to throw their support behind a specific candidate.

Anti-abortion voters want a national approach

Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, one of the country’s largest and most influential anti-abortion groups, is firm on their demand for a federal abortion limit, at minimum outlawing the procedure after 15 weeks with exceptions for the life of the mother, incest and rape, said their vice president of communications, E.V. Osment.

Osment said their group will not endorse any candidate who does not support this limit, even if they're the clear frontrunner.

Kristan Hawkins, president of Students for Life of America, said candidates looking for her organization’s support must be able to offer a federal plan for abortion, beyond “a bare minimum.”

"Any politician whose statements on abortion begin with reasons why they can't do anything and end in why they will do nothing should likely expect nothing in return from pro-life voters,” Hawkins said.

While activists may have different strategies or approaches, the anti-abortion movement is generally “in lockstep” in terms of an end goal, said Mary Ziegler, professor at the University of California, Davis School of Law. Activists are balking at the current standard, in which states get to approve their own abortion restrictions or protections.

"There's no one in the movement who's satisfied with the status quo,” Ziegler said. “There's no one who thinks it's a states rights issue and it should stay there.”

Who is the 2024 anti-abortion candidate?

Even after the first Republican primary debate last week, Hawkins and Students for Life are still in the process of deciding which candidate to support, she said.

"Pro-lifers definitely have choices when it comes to who they're going to throw their weight and support behind,” Hawkins said.

Susan B. Anthony calls itself a group with “a special calling to promote pro-life women leaders,” according to their website. But they say the GOP’s only female candidate Nikki Haley does not currently measure up.

While the former South Carolina governor has “a great understanding of pro-life issues,” Osment said, Haley has so far not met their requirement for supporting a federal-level abortion limit.

During last week’s debate, Haley reiterated that, without enough support in Congress, party leaders should focus on finding consensus elsewhere, including agreeing to not jail women who have abortions.

“There are other issues that right now Congress could not pass that Nikki Haley herself or the GOP are advocating for … It's just curious as to why abortion is the only one that was brought up,” Osment said. "We have to have a president who is willing to get in there and find consensus and to work with Congress. That's what presidents do. That's what leaders do.”

Former Vice President Mike Pence also sparred with Haley on the debate stage over the issue, arguing that abortion is a moral issue not to be left to the states.

“Nikki, you’re my friend,” Pence said during the debate. “But consensus is the opposite of leadership.”

Osment said she liked what Pence, as well as South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, had to say at the debate regarding abortion restrictions.

Pence supports a federal ban on abortion at six weeks. Tim Scott has shown support for a federal abortion ban as early as 12 weeks. Meanwhile. Hutchinson has said he would sign into law a 15-week national abortion ban if he were president

"They do see and understand how important it is at the national level,” Osment said.

Among GOP candidates, Ziegler said Pence has tended to be most aligned with the movement’s standpoint. “And he’s been the least apologetic about it,” she said.

But the former vice president’s “baggage” around the 2020 election may hinder his overall candidacy, Ziegler said, especially when facing the frontrunner and former President Donald Trump. Trump has long led the field of Republican candidates, and he has attacked his former vice president for years over his role certifying the 2020 presidential election.

"He (Pence) may not be considered a viable alternative, even if he has the clearest anti-abortion bonafides,” said Ziegler.

'No vision, no vote': Anti-abortion activists knock candidates dodging abortion questions

Some candidates have taken an “ostrich strategy,” largely ducking abortion discussions, Osment said. It's an approach she criticized as “not acceptable at all.”

“This is an extremely important issue to every American,” Osment said. “They (candidates) need to be able to speak clearly and confidently on where they stand on this.”

Hawkins said her group’s task heading into the primaries is getting candidates on the record about their vision for a post-Roe America.

“If you don't have a vision, you're not going to get the pro-life vote” Hawkins said. “No vision, no vote. Simple."

Democrats used abortion as a major driver to motivate the left's base during the 2022 midterm elections. They'll likely use the same playbook heading into 2024, and Ziegler said emphasizing anti-abortion goals may not play out as well for Republicans in a national election as their movement would hope.

“In general, there's not a lot of appetite for a national ban, period, at this point,” she said. “I don't even know if there's a lot of appetite for a national ban among Republicans ... much less independents or Democrats.”

In a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll from earlier this year, almost 60% of those surveyed said they opposed the overturning of Roe, and about 75% said abortion is an important issue for them in the next election.

And the issue might not help Republicans win over crucial swing voters. The same USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll from June found that 28% of independent women said they have become more supportive of abortion rights after Roe was overturned, compared to just 5% who said they're less supportive.

What if a Democratic hopeful emerges as the anti-abortion candidate?

The American electorate isn't so simple: not all Republicans oppose abortion rights, and not all Democrats are in favor of abortion protections.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. recently expressed support for a federal ban on abortion, only to walk the comments back hours later. The Democratic candidate told NBC at the Iowa State Fair that, “a decision to abort a child should be up to the women during the first three months of life."

Later, Kennedy’s staff said he “misunderstood” the question, adding in a statement that the candidate “does not support legislation banning abortion.”

Hawkins said she and her group were excited to see Kennedy’s initial comments – and disappointed by the retraction.

“Sadly, today's Democratic Party does not tolerate any dissension on abortion at all,” Hawkins said.

Many members of Students for Life, Hawkins said, do not identify as a Republican or conservative. She said abortion is a human rights issue that was once bipartisan.

The next pro-life president, regardless of specific discrepancies in strategy, Hawkins and Osment said, will likely have to come from the GOP.

“When we get to that point where we have Democrats running for office, who acknowledge that life in the womb, the child in the womb is an equal valuable member of our society as those who are born," Hawkins said, "that's when we know the pro-life movement has won.”

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump? Pence? Which 2024 Republican will abortion opponents choose?