Kevin D. Dayaratna, Nicolas Loris
$3.9 Trillion: What AOC's Green New Deal Would Cost You
Implementing the Green New Deal resolution would place significant though hard-to-quantify costs on Americans, according to a preliminary analysis by The Heritage Foundation that hints at the total burden.
Granted, generating a cost estimate for a plan that is nebulously defined and lacks specificity is a challenge, especially when technologies to achieve those goals simply do not exist.
Is the model supposed to assume that all-electric 18-wheelers become the new norm, for example?
In other instances, the Green New Deal resolution, which is nonbinding, adds vague language such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions “as much as technologically feasible.”
But that doesn’t help much when modeling costs, either.
It’s technically feasible to ground airplanes, close factories, and shut down oil pipelines. But that doesn’t mean an energy model can account for such a fantastical green dream.
Instead, to provide a broad estimate of just a fraction of what the Green New Deal would cost, Heritage analysts modeled implementation of a $54 carbon tax, phased in by 2021.
Although the Green New Deal as proposed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., does not explicitly call for a carbon tax, Heritage’s analysis demonstrates the economic sacrifices all Americans would make to achieve just a fraction of the emission reductions desired.
The changes modeled in Heritage’s report are projected to reduce greenhouse gases by slightly less than 30 percent by the middle of the century, merely a small portion of the emissions reductions envisioned in the Green New Deal resolution.