338Canada: Ford on track for majority win in Ontario
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With a day to go, the 2022 Ontario campaign appears poised to end where it started.
Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party entered its reelection campaign with a sizable lead against vulnerable opponents, and although some individual polls did suggest some tightening in mid-May, polling during the past month never really steered away from preelection trends.
Unless we see a massive and historic polling miss, Ford should be reelected premier of Ontario with a majority PC government on June 2.
A party is rarely as low as its lowest poll or as high as its highest one, which is why you need to follow the progression of all polls from professional firms for an accurate picture of the landscape. Many readers were quick to declare the PC in free fall when two polls measured its support at 34 percent, or, conversely, to announce that the Liberals were surging when Innovative Research measured Ontario Liberal Party support at 30 percent two weeks ago.
However, as of Tuesday afternoon, the 338Canada weighted average measures Ford’s PC support at 38 percent ± 4 percent province-wide, comfortably in majority territory.
— The Ontario Liberals: The OLP is at 27 percent on average with a confidence interval of ±3 percent, and could very well take second place in the popular vote, ahead of the Ontario New Democratic Party.
However, as we will see below, the OLP vote is rather inefficient below the 26-27 percent mark, though it becomes highly efficient above 28-29 percent because it is projected to be competitive in several suburban districts in Toronto. This means that even 2-3 points above its current level could make a world of difference. However, with current numbers, the OLP could finish third in the seat count.
— The Ontario New Democrats: The ONP takes 23 percent on average in the province, and should be able to win back many (but not all) its strongholds, especially in Southwestern Ontario. Nevertheless, expect the NDP to suffer losses on election night, keeping the role of Official opposition might prove difficult, especially if turnout is low (the ONDP polls highest with younger voters, who are historically less likely to vote).
— The Ontario Green Party: Polling shows the Ontario Green Party it take 5-7 percent of the vote.
The winner of the election is not determined by the popular vote, but by seats, of course. As such, this 11-point PC lead over the Liberals makes a tremendous difference As of this writing, the PCs are favored to win 79 of the legislature’s 124 seats, well above the 63-seat threshold for a majority.
Since several ridings are projected toss ups (24 as of Tuesday morning), the seat projections contain a fair share of uncertainty. A modest polling error or unexpected regional swing could sway totals every which way, and that is why the confidence interval brackets remain wide — not a bug, but a feature. High uncertainty at the local level means high uncertainty in the seat projections.
We see from these numbers that the PC is favored to win the most seats, and thus either remain in government (in the most likely case of a majority) or at least earn the plurality of seats, which would, according to our Westminster parliamentary system, allow Ford and his PC the first shot at winning confidence of the legislature to try to form government.
Running the 338Canada model for 100,000 simulations, the PC wins more than 63 seats in 87 percent of all simulations, or roughly 7 times out of 8.
So a second straight Ford majority is not a done deal, but it’s the most likely scenario.
What would it take for the ONDP and Liberals to reduce Ford to a minority?
First, the PC would have to underperform its polls, as it is nearly impossible for the PC to drop below 63 seats with 38 percent or more of the popular vote.
Second, the NDP would have to hold its own in its historic strongholds of Southwestern Ontario (and, to a lesser extent, Northern Ontario).
Third, the Ontario Liberals would have to overperform their polls to reach at least 30 percent or close to it, results that would likely flip several GTA/905 seats to the Liberals and away from the PC.
Neither the NDP or Liberals can do it alone with current levels of support. The obvious animosity between these parties does not help. In fact, the CBC’s Mike Crawley wrote: “Ford will waltz to another majority unless votes swing to whichever party is best positioned to defeat the PC candidate in each riding where the PCs are vulnerable.”
There is also a real possibility the PC vote is being slightly underestimated — by a modest 2-3 points — since polls indicate the PC dominates voting intentions among older voters. According to Mainstreet Research, the PC leads the 50-64 year old brackets by 17 points, and the 65+ demographic by 10 points. Other recent polls also showed the same trends: Both Léger and the Angus Reid Institute measured the PC ahead by a crushing 23 points among voters aged 55+.
If that is the case, it would be entirely plausible for the PC to cruise to a 85+ seat majority, leaving only crumbs to its rivals.
Polls do not predict the future, of course. They capture a snapshot of the very recent past. And sometimes, although not often in recent elections in Canada, polls can miss the mark. That is why we must remember that high support in polls is only theoretical support. Voters still have to cast their ballots. And voters can sometimes be unpredictable.
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Details of this projection are available on the 338Canada Ontario page. To find your home district, use this list of all 124 provincial districts, or use the regional links below:
