Hospitalizations, Cases, Positivity Rate Up In PA: Latest Data

Justin Heinze
Updated ·4 min read

PENNSYLVANIA — The latest coronavirus statistics for Pennsylvania show a continued steep rise in cases, with nearly 9,000 more cases the past week than the week before, as hospitals and healthcare infrastructure continue to be stressed.

Hospital rates, total number of cases, the percent positivity rate on tests, and several other metrics used by the Department of Health to monitor the course of the virus are seeing ongoing growth.

“This week’s data, in terms of hospitalization increase, an increase in the use of ventilators, case increase and percent positivity are worrisome,” Secretary of Health Dr. Rachel Levine said in a statement Monday. "Latest models show we could run out of ICU beds within a week."

Spread is not confined to cities and major suburbs in the state, officials said. Community transmission is now occurring in nearly every county in Pennsylvania.

ICU bed capacity reaching peak

There are currently 826 ICU beds in use in the state, with a total of 1,044 available, the statistics show. That's already higher than the peak usage of ICU beds in late April, at around 770. Projections from the same statistical model show the total number of needed ICU beds exceeding the total number available across the state as soon as Nov. 30.

RELATED: ICU Bed Capacity Reaching Peak In Pennsylvania, Officials Say

Ventilator use expected to double by year's end

Hospital infrastructure beyond ICU beds is being tested.

There are currently 405 ventilators in use statewide, the Department of Health says. But IMHE projections put that need at 914 by the end of December.

The projected need is expected to remain over 470 ventilators through March 2021, more ventilators than were in use in late April.

Percent positivity rate over 11 percent

The percent positivity rate on all coronavirus tests in Pennsylvania gained another 1.5 points this week, and is now up to 11.1 percent.

The metric has seen steep rises each week, going from 6.1 percent to 6.9 to 9.6 and now to 11.1 in successive weeks.

The positivity rate is often cited as especially important this fall because it takes into account the increased amount of testing being done.

A rate over 5 percent is considered "concerning" by health officials.

Cases, hospitalization rates rise again

There were 36,133 new coronavirus cases over the seven day period from Nov. 13 to Nov. 19, the period for which the most recent data is available.

That's an increase of 8,807 more new cases than the previous seven-day period, which saw 27,326 cases.

Each week, and often times each day, continues to break case records in the state.

"Another week of significant increases of COVID-19 across Pennsylvania is a call to action,” Gov. Wolf said. “We need all Pennsylvanians to take the steps they can to protect one another."

In addition, there was an average daily total of 2,849 individuals hospitalized due to COVID-19 over the past week, an increase over the 1,968 from the week before.

The IMHE study shows that if there is universal mask wearing, cases will plateau in early December before plummeting. If things continue as they are, cases will continue to rise through the end of the year and start to flatten in January.

In the worst case scenario, according to the IMHE, which involves an easing of restrictions, daily cases could as much as triple from their current point, continuijg to rise into February 2021.

Death rate

One positive during this fall surge in Pennsylvania has been an overall continued decrease in the death rate due to COVID-19. Patients are dying at a far lesser rate than they were at the start of the pandemic, particularly during the most deadly weeks in May when more than 100 Pennsylvanians were dying every day.

IMHE projections similar to those noted above: including universal mask wearing on the one hand, and maintaining current course on the other, both show the death rate climbing slightly in December, up to around 100 deaths per day, before declining.

The current level of community spread by county

SUBSTANTIAL

  • Adams

  • Allegheny

  • Armstrong

  • Beaver

  • Bedford

  • Berks

  • Blair

  • Bradford

  • Bucks

  • Butler

  • Cambria

  • Carbon

  • Centre

  • Chester

  • Clarion

  • Clearfield

  • Clinton

  • Columbia

  • Crawford

  • Cumberland

  • Dauphin

  • Delaware

  • Elk

  • Erie

  • Fayette

  • Forest

  • Franklin

  • Fulton

  • Greene

  • Huntingdon

  • Indiana

  • Jefferson

  • Juniata

  • Lackawanna

  • Lancaster

  • Lawrence

  • Lebanon

  • Lehigh

  • Luzerne

  • Lycoming

  • McKean

  • Mercer

  • Mifflin

  • Monroe

  • Montgomery

  • Montour

  • Northampton

  • Northumberland

  • Perry

  • Philadelphia

  • Potter

  • Schuylkill

  • Snyder

  • Somerset

  • Susquehanna

  • Tioga

  • Union

  • Venango

  • Warren

  • Washington

  • Westmoreland

  • Wyoming

  • York

MODERATE

  • Pike

  • Wayne

LOW

  • Cameron

  • Sullivan

This article originally appeared on the Montgomeryville-Lansdale Patch