4 key things to watch in Ohio on Election Day

After a year of campaigning, millions of dollars and two different primaries, Election Day is almost here.

But don't expect a clear answer on whether Republicans or Democrats control Congress on Tuesday night. Unlike Ohio, several states don't process their early votes ahead of time and are already saying it could take days to count every ballot.

The race getting the most attention in Ohio is the high-profile, and very expensive, Senate race between Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan. It could take a while to declare a winner if the race is close.

Polls between the two men have been tight throughout the election, but recent ones show the deadlock breaking in Vance's favor. The latest Real Clear Politics average has Vance up 50%-43%.

Ohio's governor race might be over a little earlier though. Polls have shown Gov. Mike DeWine with a large lead over former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley throughout the campaign. And the same may be true for the other statewide office holders like attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer and auditor.

The races to control the Ohio Supreme Court, however, might be closer than some of the other statewide races. Voters are picking three justices, including a chief justice, and party affiliation will be next to their names for the very first time.

But the early numbers that get released shortly after polls close at 7:30 p.m. won't paint an accurate picture unless you know how to read them.

Here's how to interpret those results and totals that come in later:

Early vote totals can reveal a lot

Democrats tend to vote before Election Day in Ohio, so those first percentages (which come from processing but not tabulating early votes until polls close) usually favor Democrats. President Joe Biden was ahead of Donald Trump at 8:30 p.m. in Ohio in 2020 even though the former president went on to win the Buckeye State by 8 points.

"Basically, the results are going to get redder as the night goes on," University of Cincinnati political science professor David Niven said.

And it's the total opposite in neighboring states.

Pennsylvania, for example, didn't process early votes early in 2020 and its results grew bluer as the hours passed, Niven said. "Someone watching and seeing Democrats up big in Ohio and down big in Pennsylvania is going to have a wildly misshapen view of how the night is going to go."

Democrats Whaley and Ryan both need significant early leads if they hope to win their races for governor and U.S. Senate respectively.

"If Democratic candidates start with a big lead, they can hold on," former Ohio Democratic Party Chair David Pepper said. "If it's close at first, then Republicans will likely take the lead quickly.

And if DeWine's percentage of the vote is tied or close with Whaley's before 8 p.m., Niven said "we will be looking at an early concession speech."

Where turnout happens is key

Democrats need big numbers from the "Three C's" to win Ohio: Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati.

"One of the things we've seen in early voting has been less than stellar performance in the Democratic base counties," Niven said. "That will be your early warning sign."

As of a week before Election Day, Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton counties are all pacing behind where they were in ballots cast and returned in 2018. But counties that voted for Trump (like Butler and Warren near Cincinnati) are up. However, early voting sees a spike the weekend right before Election Day.

"There are a lot of rural and mid-size counties showing enthusiasm," Republican strategist Terry Casey said.

He's been predicting elections in Ohio for decades and said local boards of election data is sometimes more predictive than the statewide totals.

In 2010, he knew Republican Gov. John Kasich was going to unseat Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland when he saw the early numbers from Cuyahoga County, which is dominated by Cleveland.

"Around 8 p.m., Kasich was only losing to Strickland by about 35,000 votes," he said. Those early results comprised about 50% of the total turnout, and "in my view, that was a very good sign because you knew a Democrat needs to come out of Cuyahoga county with a significant margin."

What is that magic margin?

"It's kind of a moving art form," Casey said. But he would expect Ryan to be at least 200,000 votes ahead in Cuyahoga to have a chance at winning statewide.

Top of the ticket matters

Ticket splitting, where a person votes for candidates from different political parties, has declined across the country and in Ohio.

"It's really hard for these undercard races to develop their own personalities," Niven said.

Voters often don't know much about Ohio's attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer or auditor. And that means that however the governor's race goes, the rest are likely to follow.

"Given the party labels now, I would view the supreme court races as another line in the undercard," Niven said. "I think those races are just going to break on party-line voting."

Polls have shown a statistical tie in the race for chief justice, but Niven still thinks a law passed in 2021 to add party affiliation to the judges running for the Ohio Supreme Court will put the GOP justices over the top.

Canaries in the congressional and statehouse races

Local races can sometimes predict whether Ohio is going red or blue on election night, but they can also be a window into how the state may be trending for future elections.

One to watch is the congressional race between Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman and U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot in Ohio's 1st District.

The district is more Democratic now that redistricting put Cincinnati entirely within the district. Chabot won reelection by more than six percentage points in 2020, and Niven said it's possible he hangs on by a smaller margin.

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A narrow loss isn't what Democrats want but it could be a positive sign for future candidates who need suburban voters around major cities to make up for the increasingly large losses in rural Ohio.

Niven also has his eye on the northeast Ohio race between Democrat Emilia Sykes and Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert for the open 13th Congressional District in the Akron-Canton area, and the 9th District around Toledo where U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur faces Republican J.R. Majewski.

"The statewide races don't look particularly good for Democrats," Niven said. "Those three congressional races represent the one canary that might survive down in that coal mine."

Anna Staver is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, which serves the Columbus Dispatch, Cincinnati Enquirer, Akron Beacon Journal and 18 other affiliated news organizations across Ohio.

This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Election night in Ohio: What to watch for as vote totals are reported