David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital. So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that OGE Energy Corp. (NYSE:OGE) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
What Is OGE Energy's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2019 OGE Energy had US$3.40b of debt, an increase on US$3.20b, over one year. On the flip side, it has US$94.3m in cash leading to net debt of about US$3.31b.
How Strong Is OGE Energy's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that OGE Energy had liabilities of US$702.7m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$6.18b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$94.3m in cash and US$256.1m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$6.53b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of US$8.57b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on OGE Energy's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
OGE Energy has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.3 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 2.9 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Investors should also be troubled by the fact that OGE Energy saw its EBIT drop by 14% over the last twelve months. If things keep going like that, handling the debt will about as easy as bundling an angry house cat into its travel box. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if OGE Energy can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, OGE Energy's free cash flow amounted to 20% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
On the face of it, OGE Energy's net debt to EBITDA left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. And even its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow fails to inspire much confidence. It's also worth noting that OGE Energy is in the Electric Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. We're quite clear that we consider OGE Energy to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. Given our hesitation about the stock, it would be good to know if OGE Energy insiders have sold any shares recently. You click here to find out if insiders have sold recently.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.