4 Senate races where independent and split-ticket voters could make a huge difference

Say you’re an independent voter. Or maybe you don’t always vote the party line.

You’re probably not exactly inspired by legislative choices in the Aug. 2 primary election. A lot of races are already foregone conclusions, with token challengers, if any at all.

But there are still a few critical races to consider – ones in which independent and moderate voters could make a difference. Arizona needs their votes, too.

Independents – a third of the state’s nearly 4.3 million voters – have until July 22 to request an early Republican or Democratic ballot.

The primary IS the election

But why participate, especially if the Legislature is expected to get even redder this year?

Because, for many races, the primary election is the election. There are only a handful of truly toss-up districts that could swing between R and D, making them even remotely competitive in the fall.

If you want a say in the direction and tenor of your representation – and maybe even the larger direction and tenor of the House and Senate – the primary is where that needs to happen.

And, yes, while many election observers expect this to be a good year for Republicans – thanks in part to a new, redder legislative district boundary map and frustration with Democrats nationally over soaring gas, food and rent prices – we also need to consider the dynamics within the state House and Senate.

The partisan divide has grown more rancorous, as has the divide within the Republican Party. Disagreements – some petty and personal, some not – logjammed the budget for weeks.

A few races could change things

Yet there are plenty of issues facing the Legislature – from dwindling water supplies to lagging education funding to a lack of affordable housing – that require an ability to compromise and balance conflicting interests.

We need members who can do both. It’s toxic to legislate in an atmosphere where simply talking to those outside of your tribe can make you persona non grata.

Yet, that’s where we are.

And it could get even worse next session, particularly if those who occasionally dare to vote their conscience or negotiate with others are replaced by a slate of so-called “America First” candidates who place fealty to a populist right agenda above all that.

While every legislative race has something important at stake, a few races – particularly in the Senate and especially among Republicans – could have even more impact on the Capitol’s direction and tenor.

Here are 4 to watch:

Legislative District 10

House Speaker Rusty Bowers has reached his term limit in the House, which means that even if he wins this east Mesa Senate seat, he won’t be in leadership next year.

But that hasn’t diminished the size of the target on his back.

Bowers is a staunch conservative. He voted for Trump.

Yet to some, his unforgiveable sin is that he refused to go along with the Big Lie. Bowers did not heed calls from Trump and his advisers to help undo the election, and he helped scuttle some of the most egregious bills run under the mistaken pretense of restoring “election integrity.”

An effort to recall Bowers failed last year. It gathered enough signatures but was thrown out on a technical flaw.

Yet some still view it as a top priority to ensure Bowers does not move to the Senate. They are backing his opponent, former Sen. David Farnsworth, who is far cozier with the Big Lie – and any number of other conspiracies, including a 2019 claim that the Arizona Department of Child Services was linked to sex trafficking.

The winner won’t have a challenger in the general election.

Legislative District 9

Incumbent Tyler Pace supported the Senate’s election review initially but unlike many of his colleagues did not call for the 2020 results to be decertified.

He’s not an election denier.

Pace also has been willing to upend or delay Republican legislation on occasion, joining Democrats in voting against controversial abortion and transgender bills, for example.

He faces Robert Scantlebury, a retired Mesa police sergeant who describes himself as “staunchly pro-life.” He is a vocal Trump supporter who has Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake’s endorsement, in part, for his commitment to “fighting for election integrity.”

Perhaps as interesting as the differences between the candidates is where the west Mesa district is headed. This is one of the state’s few swing districts, and it is expected to trend bluer over time. Voters chose Joe Biden and Mark Kelly in 2020.

Perhaps the key question for primary voters is this: Does a more moderate candidate like Pace or a more populist one like Scantlebury have a better chance of retaining this seat in the general election against registered nurse Eva Burch, a Democrat?

Legislative District 29

Rep. Joanne Osborne had reservations about a few GOP-backed school choice and abortion bills, which is partly why she is facing the challenge from the right. Lake also threw shade in endorsing registered nurse Janae Shamp, calling Osborne “a RINO that has done nothing but block important election integrity legislation.”

Osborne has hardly been an obstructionist. But in this political atmosphere, even breaking ranks once or twice can get you labeled as a traitor.

Shamp, meanwhile, strongly believes that the 2020 election was stolen. She is running as a team with former Rep. Steve Montenegro, who narrowly lost to Osborne in the 2020 primary, and Austin Smith, who works for the pro-Trump group Turning Point USA, for the district’s House seats.

Ryan Eldridge, a self-described “constitutional conservative,” also is running against Osborne in this strongly Republican West Valley district. There is no Democrat running in the general.

Legislative District 17

This race isn’t so much about policy or direction. Both candidates are card-carrying election conspiracy enthusiasts. In fact, both candidates have rarely come across a conspiracy they don’t like.

But it is very much a race about tenor.

Sen. Wendy Rogers has stepped across the line of good sense and decorum way more than Sen. Kelly Townsend. In fact, we’ve called for Rogers’ peers to quickly investigate and remove her, even before the election occurs.

Rogers has already been censured for threatening her colleagues and is the subject of an ethics investigation, this time for suggesting without proof that the mass shooting in Buffalo, N.Y., was a “false flag” operation by the federal government.

It would send a strong message if voters removed her convincingly, despite the out-of-state war chest she has amassed, in a solidly red district that runs from Flagstaff almost to Tucson.

The victor faces Democrat Kyle Nitschke in November.

This is an opinion of The Arizona Republic’s editorial board. What do you think? Send us a letter to the editor to weigh in.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Why Arizona's Senate primary election really needs independent voters