With 4 weeks until Seabaugh v. Smith, GOP likes its odds

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Jun. 17—If another 207 of the 7,086 people who voted in Tuesday's special election had cast a ballot for Devan Seabaugh, the Metro Atlanta Ambulance executive would have punched his ticket to the Gold Dome as House District 34's next state representative.

But in lieu of an outright victory in the special election to replace Bert Reeves, Seabaugh will now square off against Democrat Priscilla Smith in a July 13 runoff. Following a race where Seabaugh and his Republican counterpart David Blinkhorn combined for nearly 60% of the vote, much of Cobb seems to like his chances.

"I would expect those numbers to be pretty close to the same for the runoff, percentage-wise," said Kennesaw State University political scientist Kerwin Swint, who found the race's 17% turnout to be typical for an off-season, specially called House race. "I think a lot of Republicans will take this as a positive sign."

Much has been made of the apparent divisions wracking the Georgia GOP since November's election, with hardline conservatives condemning Gov. Brian Kemp and other Republicans holding statewide office for their insufficient support of Donald Trump. In Cobb, however, Republicans appear prepared to mount a united front and bring the seat home.

"The better candidate won this time. So I'm fully supportive of Devan and hope for the best in his runoff," Blinkhorn said Wednesday, adding he was proud the two both ran clean races.

"I think it sends a very clear message that Cobb County is still red, and the majority of people in Cobb County want to remain Republicans," Blinkhorn said. "But at the same time, I know in knocking on doors and talking to people, there's a lot of people in the middle that just want positive leadership. I think whether it was Devan or myself, that's what we were going to bring."

Cobb GOP Chair Salleigh Grubbs, who attended Seabaugh's election night watch party, was similarly touting Republican strength, saying, "It's going to be very obvious to people that our big mission is to defeat the Democratic Party."

The day after the election, such unity was yet to be seen in the Democratic field.

"I'm not prepared to comment on that at this point," third-place finisher and Democrat Sam Hensley Jr. said of a potential endorsement of Smith.

The Marietta native and attorney said his prognosis for the July runoff is less than rosy, given the strong Republican showing Tuesday.

"Well, it doesn't look good," Hensley Jr. said. "(Smith) and I both knew getting into this race, it's a district that is becoming more diverse, and it's becoming more purple, but it traditionally has been very conservative."

Grubbs was quick to jump on the perceived division on the Democratic side, taking shots at Smith over her endorsement by Fair Fight Action, Stacey Abrams' political advocacy group.

"I've known the Hensley family my whole life, they are very fine people," she said. "When you have Fair Fight that is behind Priscilla Smith, I think it's very unfortunate for the Democrats that they're letting the big Stacey Abrams machine determine what happens in our local elections."

Grubbs and the Cobb GOP, however, also had outside support: Kelly Loeffler's Greater Georgia group, which previously told the MDJ they had invested "five figures" in the race on digital advertisements, field staff, volunteer training, and literature. By Wednesday morning, the organization was quick to declare victory on social media.

"I think last night's result was proof positive of some of the work that Greater Georgia has been doing on the ground for the last, really, two months or so," said Stephen Lawson, spokesperson for the group.

"The results kind of speak for themselves ... fundamentally, we're still going to be very involved, very engaged," Lawson said.

Fair Fight did not respond to an interview request for this story. One Democratic operative—Chris Huttman of Cobb-based media firm Canal Partners Media—cautioned Democrats not to despair of the results.

While Democratic returns in the district have steadily ticked up over the years (Smith earned 44% of the vote when she challenged Reeves in 2020), Huttman said the strong GOP showing was not indicative of typical general election mobilization.

"A big part of our coalition is people that don't have the longer roots in the community that some of the older Republican voters have ... these special elections skew a lot older, so in some ways what you're seeing is almost a historical picture of what the district used to be, as opposed to what it might be in the next general election," Huttman said.