$44 million contract has bought the Cardinals only 2 quality starts from pitcher Steven Matz

Steven Matz has not been good enough and the St. Louis Cardinals are just about out of time they can afford to spend in the process of allowing him to figure out how to be better.

This isn’t a surprising assessment to anyone, least of all Matz, who was thumped for six earned runs and 11 hits in just four innings Wednesday in Cincinnati. After a brief detour of decrease, his earned run average has spiked back to 5.72. He hasn’t recorded a win in any of his 10 starts; the team has salvaged only two. He hasn’t completed six innings in a start yet in 2023, and in his last two, didn’t manage to complete five.

Those results aren’t a particular surprise, either, given his track record. He also managed only 10 starts last season while battling injuries, and in those 10 starts, completed six innings only twice.

That’s 20 appearances as a starter since signing a four year, $44 million free agent contract, and only two which were quality starts. Discounting starting the season with an ERA of 0.00, the lowest mark he’s had in a given season at the end of a day’s play was his 4.56 mark after his start May 2, 2022.

In his next outing, he allowed eight runs in two innings. So ... so much for that.

Early this season, the focus from the club was on what Matz can provide when healthy. On paper, mixing a mid-90s fastball with a sweeping curve and a biting change makes for a solid contributor in the starting rotation. From opening day, though, the story with Matz hasn’t jumped off the page.

His average fastball velocity is down approximately 1 mile per hour, though it’s settled in the range he frequently delivered early in his career for the New York Mets. Hitters are annihilating his changeup; despite throwing it roughly 4% less frequently, the slugging percentage against the pitch has exploded from .307 to .515 year over year. Wednesday’s radio and television broadcasts both broached the possibility Matz was tipping the pitch and if that possibility has reached friendly airwaves, it’s certainly been tackled behind the scenes.

Toward the end of April, word reached the media Matz had been unhappy with the behavior of his curveball and indeed data bears out that hitters are handling the pitch much more easily and for damage. Tinkers and adjustments were advertised, and ultimately, Matz simply seemed to throw the pitch less frequently, targeted to specific hitters.

If his curve can’t be trusted and his change is getting returned at high velocities, then Matz is functioning as a one-pitch pitcher. That is insufficient for a big league starter. That’s extremely difficult to navigate even as a big league reliever.

Still, the oft-maligned schedule has, in its own way, delivered the Cardinals a break. Quirks around interleague matchups which were born from a new schedule which sees every team play every opponent have left the Cardinals with consecutive off days Wednesday, May 31, and Thursday, June 1. With a gap of two days, a natural opportunity comes to adjust pitchers’ schedules.

What about Liberatore?

Meanwhile, Matt Liberatore has floated around the pitching staff in recent days, making a mid-start bullpen appearance that set off much more than its deserved share of anxiety. Scheduled now to start in Cleveland on Friday night, slotting the young lefty behind Miles Mikolas gives the Cardinals the freedom to choose their path forward.

Mikolas, who was tasked with gobbling up innings in Thursday’s series finale in Cincinnati, would be on turn to start Tuesday on regular rest. Matz would also be on turn with an extra day under his belt, and the Cardinals — having made a significant financial investment — are likely to be tempted to give him one last shot to show meaningful progress before shuffling him back to the bullpen.

It’s hard, though, not to read the realities of the calendar as having already tipped their hand. If Matz does pitch Tuesday, for instance, he would be available in the bullpen as early as the following Friday; the Cardinals, then, would not have to spend two days pitching short out of the bullpen. Slotting Liberatore behind Mikolas also keeps a lefty in the middle of the mix, offering a direct replacement.

Time’s up for Matz

And, as Génesis Cabrera has reverted to the mean and the Cardinals have muddled through with no other lefties in their bullpen — save the righty-but-reverse splitting Andre Pallante — the need there has become apparent. Liberatore has had essentially no experience as a long-term bullpen piece. Matz at least has some, spending a productive month there last season after returning from knee surgery.

Just as many if not all other organizations would have done, the Cardinals have followed their financial investment with time and opportunity investments in Matz. They allowed him plenty of time to work through things because they felt like they had to, and because bailing out ran the risk of creating an untenable roster situation.

Time’s up, at least for the short term. In the midst of 19 games in 19 days, against long odds, the Cardinals have clawed their way back to respectability. Conceding to the inevitable with Steven Matz is the best way to make sure a backslide doesn’t follow.