48 hours: Deadline nears as Kings weigh decision on Hawks’ offer to Bogdan Bogdanovic

New Kings general manager Monte McNair didn’t make this mess, but here he is trying to clean up after his predecessors mismanaged the organization’s assets for years.

Last October, the Kings gave Buddy Hield a four-year, $86 million contract extension with likely incentives that push the total to $94 million. In January, they benched Hield in favor of Bogdan Bogdanovic, who former general manager Vlade Divac planned to pay when he became a restricted free agent a few months later.

The Kings had earmarked $15 million to $18 million for Bogdanovic with the belief that the salary cap would increase to $115 million. Bogdanovic’s camp was already signaling a willingness to play hardball in those negotiations after Hield and Harrison Barnes received fatter contracts — with statistical analysis suggesting Bogdanovic was better — but Divac was confident he could get a deal done. Then the coronavirus pandemic caused billions in revenue losses, Divac was removed from his post and the Kings hired McNair to figure out how the pieces fit under a salary cap that remained flat at $109.1 million.

Now McNair is on the clock. He was given 48 hours to decide whether to match an offer sheet from the Atlanta Hawks, who are willing to pay Bogdanovic $72 million over four years — an average of $18 million per year. McNair hasn’t indicated what he will do, but the pros and cons were being hotly debated in Sacramento as the clock ticked toward Tuesday’s deadline at 11:59 p.m. ET.

Let Bogi go to Atlanta

There are some legitimate reasons for McNair to let Bogdanovic go. Sources have suggested Bogdanovic would prefer to move on, saying the 28-year-old shooting guard feels he has been “de-prioritized” by the Kings organization.

In addition, bringing Bogdanovic back could limit McNair’s future roster and salary cap flexibility and slow any plans of an immediate rebuild around 22-year-old point guard De’Aaron Fox, 21-year-old forward Marvin Bagley III and 20-year-old rookie first-round draft pick Tyrese Haliburton.

Matching the offer for Bogdanovic might mean committing to the current roster for the foreseeable future, although McNair would certainly explore trade possibilities. In the meantime, though, a backcourt that includes Fox, Hield, Bogdanovic and Cory Joseph might stunt the growth of Haliburton, who will need minutes at both guard spots to develop.

Signing Bogdanovic for an estimated $18 million would push the team’s payroll to $115 million, well over the $109.1 million salary cap. That doesn’t account for Haliburton, who figures to get a little over $3 million. The Kings can exceed the salary cap to sign Bogdanovic because they hold his Bird Rights, but the cap crunch would get even worse in 2020-21 when Fox’s new five-year, $163 million max contract kicks in with clauses that could push it to the $195.6 million super max.

The Kings can begin to create some flexibility by letting Bogdanovic go. Haliburton, a 6-foot-5, 185-pound combo guard, was one of the top prospects in the draft, according to some analysts, before his surprising fall to the Kings at No. 12. Bogdanovic’s departure would allow Haliburton to take his place as a secondary playmaker and ball handler in a more well-defined role as a primary backup at point guard and shooting guard.

Bring Bogi back to Sacramento

Some will view it as a mistake if McNair lets one of his best players walk away without compensation. ESPN front office insider and former Brooklyn Nets assistant general manager Bobby Marks offered his assessment of the situation on Twitter.

“There is no reason at all why Sacramento should not match the Bogdan Bogdanovic offer sheet,” Marks said. “Even if you feel that the deal is a bit rich (it really is not) use BB as a trade asset next offseason (or at the deadline with his consent). Do not lose him for nothing.”

A backcourt consisting of Fox, Hield, Bogdanovic, Joseph and Haliburton would be talented, deep and versatile. The allocation of minutes would be a challenge for coach Luke Walton, but McNair could seek trades for Hield, Bogdanovic and Joseph while Haliburton develops.

If the Kings keep Bogdanovic, they will not be able to trade him without his consent for one year and they would not be able to trade him to the Hawks for one year under any circumstances. The deal would also include a 15% trade kicker.

The Kings could look to trade Hield instead, a move that would allow them to recoup assets in lieu of what was lost in the failed sign-and-trade agreement that would have sent Bogdanovic to the Milwaukee Bucks. League executives told The Sacramento Bee the trade market for Hield is mixed at best, but there are teams that see value in the Bahamian sharpshooter. McNair would get something in return for one of his most talented players and go forward with Bogdanovic, whose average annual salary will be $5.5 million less than Hield’s.

The Kings were in playoff contention each of the past two seasons before ultimately falling short. How good can they be with Hield and Bogdanovic returning, the addition of Haliburton, a healthy Bagley and the continuing evolution of Fox? McNair has to make that assessment while being mindful that near-term decisions will shape the landscape in his vision for long-term success.