49ers mailbag: What’s up with all the Mac Jones talk? Would they trade the No. 3 pick?

There was no pressing news Tuesday, so let’s get right to this week’s mailbag. Surely it won’t be all about Mac Jones, will it? (Editor’s note: There’s only one way to find out.)

Fred asks: Probably late, but what is the rationale of Mac Jones at 3? I see another Jimmy G, and to give up that much and not take Fields or Wilson doesn’t make sense to me. But maybe I just don’t understand.

The rationale is simple: Shanahan would have to think Jones gives the 49ers a better chance at winning Super Bowls than the other prospects.

Is that true? That’s certainly debatable.

I’ve thought all along Shanahan was angling for Trey Lance, the high-upside prospect who would be an excellent fit for his offense and the modern NFL. He still might be.

Lance, to me, gives Shanahan his best chance at landing a John Elway-type talent, given his athleticism and arm strength. He’s the only quarterback in the group that consistently lined up under center, called out protections for the offensive line and played in play-action heavy scheme with a similar structure to what Shanahan runs.

The knock on Lance is his relative inexperience. He played in the FCS and only started 17 games, including just one in 2020 because the pandemic. But he’s also had the same number of starts as Jones while Lance didn’t have the same caliber of weapons surrounding him. The dings against Lance are mostly things out of his control. Though his inexperience would meld with the idea of keeping Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter for one more year while he develops, similar to what San Francisco did in 2011 after drafting Colin Kaepernick.

NFL people believe Jones is elite between the ears. Maybe that’s true. It’s hard for me to judge because I’m not a scout or quarterbacks coach, nor have I gotten Jones on the white board (insert football guy chuckle). I spoke with former 49ers quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan, who has studied all these guys, and he said it wouldn’t surprise him if Jones ends up being the best of the bunch despite his lack of athleticism.

“For sure. Yes,” O’Sullivan said. “And to expand on that, so much of what will be Mac Jones’ story will be where does he end up? To your point, I don’t think anybody thinks he’s going to go out there and run a 4.4. But does he have the capacity to move around the pocket? Can he create space within the pocket? Absolutely.

“... But again, you look across the landscape of the league and the league is evolving, and/or already has evolved.”

It’s hard to watch Jones throw meekly on the run, struggle to avoid pass rushers and think Shanahan couldn’t get more out of a more physically gifted quarterback. Especially after trading three first-round picks. After all, those types of quarterbacks have given Shanahan’s San Francisco defenses fits. He has four games a year against them in his own division.

The point’s been made elsewhere, but what if Matt Ryan could have avoided the pass rush in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LI instead of getting stripped by blitzing linebacker Dant’a Hightower? What if Jimmy Garoppolo could have made a play with his legs for a first down at some point in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs when the offense was clearly stalled? How could Shanahan watch Patrick Mahomes make his ridiculous throw on third-and-15 and not think he needs a quarterback with that type of arm strength to take his offense to the next level?

What Shanahan would be saying with picking Jones is he believes running his scheme is more important than being able to improvise off structure. Perhaps he’s right. There have been plenty of pocket-style quarterbacks that have won Super Bowls (Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning and the like). But clearly the league is trending the other direction. And it doesn’t appear other teams would draft Jones that early, let alone mortgage the future for the chance.

Jones might end up being great. But until he proves it, Shanahan’s going to have a hard time convincing people Jones is the right guy to beat Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and Josh Allen for Super Bowls.

Sport Miner asks: What does Robert Saleh’s and Mike LaFleur’s deep experience with the Niners and Shanahan’s offensive scheme tell us about how they will approach this draft? Wouldn’t the Jets and Niners be eyeing up the same QBs for picks No. 2 and 3 (and if so, why no silly rumors of Mac to Jets...)?

I would think so, yes.

But keep in mind, it’s general manager Joe Douglas making that call. And all signs are pointing to BYU’s Zach Wilson being the pick. The consensus is Wilson is the clear No. 2 quarterback prospect in the class, so it would make little sense to deviate from that thinking.

I’ve been open to the idea of the Jets going another way, given we’ve heard very little about their direction. But Douglas gave a hint toward Wilson on Tuesday when he spoke to reporters following the Sam Darnold trade.

Otherwise, I would have thought Ohio State’s Justin Fields or Lance might have been in play at No. 2, but it appears the Jets are focused on Wilson as the next face of the franchise.

Bob asks: Given the big move to No. 3 in the draft to clearly take a QB, will anything less than a Super Bowl appearance be enough to keep John or Kyle both from being fired? Jed York can have confidence, but at the same time require performance.

Remember what Jed York said after the 49ers “mutually” parted with Jim Harbaugh after the 2014 season.

“It’s up to us to make sure we compete for and win Super Bowls,” York said. “That’s our only goal. We don’t raise division championship banners, we don’t raise NFC Championship banners. We raise Super Bowl banners. And whenever we don’t deliver that, I hope that you will hold me directly responsible and accountable for it. And we look forward to getting this thing back on track.”

So that’s the expectation and I think Shanahan and Lynch share those expectations. There’s no doubt in my mind, whomever they pick, they believe will be good enough to keep them in Super Bowl contention as long as they’re around. Which quarterback that is remains a mystery.

Brandon asks: Were the Niners really players for Deshaun Watson? If so, how can analysts be boxing Shanahan into a pocket-passer?

I believe they were. Shanahan mentioned his name during his news conference after the trade when talking about weighing quarterbacks options during the winter. Would they have been willing to trade three first-round picks for Watson? Lynch and Shanahan might be the only ones who know for sure, but it seems possible after making the trade to move up.

The second question is a good one and clearly one I’m struggling with. My answer: if it’s Jones, Shanahan believes the way he processes and anticipates out weighs the physical limitations compared to the other quarterbacks.

I think there’s a lot of groupthink going on across the NFL regarding the player they believe the 49ers will take. But keep in mind, just because Jones fits Shanahan’s perceived archetype, it doesn’t necessarily make him the pick. The question becomes whether Shanahan will break from that perception or stick to it.

I think Adam Schefter, who is close with Mike and Kyle Shanahan, is the only voice out there that’s plugged into their thinking.

Alan asks: In the unlikely, but possible, scenario that NYJ take Fields, is Wilson then the ‘no-brainer’ pick? Possible they like Lance more? Thanks.

That’s what Steve Young thinks. He went on KNBR last week and made it sound like Wilson would be the best pick San Francisco could make (aside from Lawrence).

“There’s no question in my mind if they could figure out how to get Zach, that’s their number one first choice,” Young said. “I just don’t know how they get it done. The Jets have committed to Zach and recruited the family. I don’t know how that gets rundown, but look, a lot can happen. I think Zach would love it, the family would love it, nothing would make anyone happier for the 49ers. That’s their unstated first choice.”

I think Wilson could be great, especially in a situation like San Francisco’s. But I can’t say with any certainty the 49ers would take him over any of the other players available.

Regarding Lance, remember when Shanahan said C.J. Beathard was an easy evaluation because he ran a run-heavy, pro-style offense at Iowa? Now imagine one of the more physically intriguing prospects over the last few years having that same advantage coming into the draft. That’s a reason why I believe Lance would be an easy fit.

Shanahan also said in December he wished Josh Allen came out in the 2017 draft. Allen’s skill set might be best comparison to Lance.

Ellen asks: Before the 49ers’ trade up, and the media’s Mac Jones mania, a lot of mocks had Falcons at No. 4 taking Lance or Fields. Could it be possible the 49ers leapfrogged Falcons to take one of those two rather than sneak in front of the Panthers to take Mac Jones?

Your logic is sound. And it would track with Schefter’s report Tuesday saying the Falcons are open to trading back from the No. 4 pick. Perhaps they believe the 49ers would take their preferred option at No. 3.

But Schefter also reported the day of the trade San Francisco was looking to get into the top five which could lead to Jones being their guy all along.

(Would it be weird if I asked my boss for a vacation before the draft?) (Editor’s note: Weird, no. Stepping on OUR toes? Yes.)

Chris asks: Hey what if this early trade to get to No. 3 was a way to buy at March prices and sell at draft day prices? In theory, a desperate QB team might sell the farm to move into No. 3.

I like the creative thinking. Lynch said the team paid a premium for getting to move up so early. So I can’t imagine there’s going to be a way to get three first-round picks back and find a quarterback prospect that gives the 49ers what they want. Someone should make a movie about something like that.

Chad asks: Why hasn’t Mac’s DUI been discussed by media?

Good question. Jones did have a DUI before he was the starting quarterback back in 2017. He was also found with a fake identification, according to a report from AL.com.

What to make of that is not immediately known. We’re expected to speak with Lynch and/or Shanahan one more time before the draft. That’s something they should have answers for in terms of their evaluation.

Another less-serious topic surrounding Jones: He sat out of the Senior Bowl because of an ankle injury. That’s notable, of course, because Garoppolo had his 2020 season derailed by ankle issues. Jones also came out of the national championship with a bone bruise in his leg.

“I rolled my ankle a little bit,” Jones said during the week of the Senior Bowl, per NFL.com. “At first I was a little worried about my right leg and now my left leg is a little hurt. I didn’t get to finish but I don’t want to risk it at this point. We’ll just kind of figure out treatment and see how I feel. I’m not going to go out there if I’m not 100 percent.”

KC488 asks: Fans and pundits alike are polarized right now: the Niners are either blowing smoke about Mac Jones or he’s the pick. There were rumors of Quinnen Williams vs Nick Bosa to support smoke and mirrors, but they telegraphed Solomon Thomas, so which is it? Mac Jones: truth or fiction?

If I knew I’d tell you. I promise.

Here’s the thing, as you mentioned, the 49ers are either smoke screening the football world or they’re in love with Jones and don’t care who knows it. Here’s what Shanahan said the day before traveling to Jones’ pro day:

“I normally don’t like to go to (pro days) a bunch unless I have to for some reason, but I also have been kind of grown up in the idea that you don’t like to go everywhere and show people things. When you’re sitting at 12 and stuff, I don’t want to go to a bunch of quarterback pro days and things like that. Now that you move up to three, you don’t have to hide as much. It’s not as big of a deal to me as it might’ve been when we were sitting at 12.”

Does that tell you anything? I’d only be guessing.

Is it notable the trade happened two weeks after Lance’s pro day which neither Shanahan nor Lynch attended? If you think they’re replicating what they did when no one expected them to draft Mike McGlinchey, then perhaps the Lance idea tracks. If you think they don’t care about smoke screening now that they’re up to No. 3, then perhaps it’s Jones and we’re all over thinking it.

I also think it’s notable Alabama coach Nick Saban said Lynch and Shanahan didn’t ask him anything about Jones at the pro day. Do the 49ers know everything they need to already? Or is it possible they were there because the Tide have so many other intriguing draft prospects to look at, including center Landon Dickerson who is coming off a late-season ACL tear.

Ask me again April 29. Until then, I will consider therapy.

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