49ers mailbag: QB competition between Lance and Garoppolo? Will Warner sign a new deal?

The 49ers on Tuesday announced Friday’s rookie minicamp practice will be open to reporters. It’s expected to be Trey Lance’s debut on the practice fields in Santa Clara.

So let’s start there with this week’s mailbag.

Cerda-Fied asks: Do the Niners truly have a QB competition in camp or is it Jimmy Garoppolo’s job until he either gets hurt or isn’t producing?

Kyle Shanahan is very aware of his messaging as he approaches this delicate offseason program and training camp now that he has a quarterback situation with a slew of variables and moving parts. He logically would try two things to accomplish what he says publicly.

First, he wants to make sure Lance has the mindset to earn whatever he gets. Lance, of course, only had one game in 2020, played against FCS competition in college and could need time to develop. There’s no logic in publicly gifting Lance the job. He should have to beat out Garoppolo to become the starter.

Second, it would behoove the 49ers to say as many nice things about Garoppolo as possible given the likelihood he’s traded in the coming months. They’d love to recoup some of the capital they gave up in the trade for Lance. If Garoppolo plays a healthy season like he did in 2019, he could garner a package including a first-round pick.

“We made this move, so it’s obvious what I hope and what I believe in with this guy coming in,” Shanahan said the night Lance was drafted. “But it would be a very tough situation if Jimmy’s not on our team. I want Jimmy to be here and I want this kid to be brought along. I want to see how he does and if it turns into a competition, it turns into a competition.”

Based on what I’ve heard about Lance — his intelligence, ability to read defenses, make checks at the line of scrimmage and play in a West Coast style of offense at North Dakota State — I think he could be ready to compete sooner than expected. And I think Shanahan already has some plays in mind to unleash Lance’s athleticism he can’t run with Garoppolo.

We’ll get our first look at Lance on the practice field Friday. Maybe he’ll be completely over his skis. But I doubt it.

Paul asks: When should we expect a Fred Warner extension? Also could the Niners have actually been able to fit Buckner’s extension in their salary cap?

I’d guess Warner’s extension will get done right before training camp, just as George Kittle’s was last summer. Warner would be wise to not step on the practice field until he has a new deal. The 2018 third-round pick is set to make $3.3 million in 2021 — while a new contract could guarantee him over $20 million at signing.

I’d expect Warner’s deal to look a lot like Kittle’s both in average annual salary ($15 million) and structure, with his biggest payouts coming the season after he signs. The deal would likely have significant guarantees up front while the cap figures will be pushed back to 2022 and beyond with the salary cap expected to balloon back up beginning in 2023.

On the Buckner extension, yes, I think the 49ers could have made it work to keep him around. As a baseline, the team will have roughly $6.8 million in cap space after signing the draft class. Arik Armstead — the player kept instead of Buckner — has a $12.45 million cap hit paired with Javon Kinlaw — the player drafted to replace Buckner — who is slated to cost $3.5 million. That’s nearly $16 million while Buckner will cost the Colts $17 million in cap dollars in 2021. Maneuvering to make Buckner’s money work would have been possible.

But clearly the 49ers didn’t want to pay one defensive tackle that much money. There’s logic behind that - very few defensive tackles are worth being the highest-paid players on your team, though Armstead is making $17 million per year on average.

Last season proved to be an allegory for why Buckner has such immense value. He’s one of the most durable and productive players in the NFL — and San Francisco was the most injured team in recent memory.

Armstead backed up his team-leading 10-sack season in 2019 with just 3.5 over 16 games in 2020. Kinlaw showed flashes of promise, but had just 1.5 sacks, giving ammunition to the argument that having Buckner, a first-team All Pro last season, would have been more valuable than Armstead and Kinlaw combined.

Maybe Armstead bounces back and Kinlaw will take a significant step in his second season. That’s certainly possible and it would give the 49ers a deeper group along the defensive front than they’d have with just Buckner. But it’s fair to say, based on last season, the trade has not worked out in San Francisco’s favor so far. The Colts have been thrilled with the addition of the 27-year-old.

Ryan asks: I’m curious if Jalen Hurd is the reason the 49ers felt comfortable with not drafting a receiver? I feel like the Niners must believe Hurd or maybe Jennings will be contributing players.

Shanahan was asked about this after the draft and indicated the board never lined up for a receiver, which is notable given its the first time the 49ers haven’t drafted a receiver since 2002.

“I would always like to take a receiver,” Shanahan said. “... But it’s got to be a guy that you think could make your team and so that all depends on where that round fell and what was there and when we got there.”

I think there are likely three locks to make the team: Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and Richie James Jr. That leaves eight guys likely competing for three spots: Hurd, Trent Sherfield, Mohamed Sanu, Jauan Jennings, Travis Benjamin, River Cracraft, Austin Proehl and Kevin White.

Sherfield has a good chance to make it for his work on special teams. Benjamin is an unknown after opting out last season and having played just five games since 2018. Sanu failed to stick around last season despite the team dealing with injuries at the position.

Hurd is the biggest wild card of the group. I believe anything he gives the 49ers should be considered found money given he missed his first two NFL seasons with significant back and knee injuries. He’s been rehabbing away from the team this offseason.

“Jalen’s rehab is going well,” general manager John Lynch said earlier this month. “We’re eager to get him back here because he’s been rehabbing away, but we check in regularly. He’s doing a nice job with his rehab, so we’re excited about that.”

Ultimately, if the 49ers end up starting Lance at quarterback, they might use two receiver sets at a rate near the highest in the NFL, so they might not need a third receiver as badly as it looks right now.

SportyMiner asks: What are your views on how the rest of the NFC-W improved (or not) this off season and specifically how do you think the Matt Stafford and Lance additions change their respective teams (noting 49ers showed interest in Stafford too)?

I think the Rams will definitely be better. Jared Goff was a key reason the Rams were 0-4 against the 49ers the last two seasons (they certainly won’t be mad about Robert Saleh’s departure, either). Stafford could be the difference between getting into the playoffs as a wild card team and becoming a Super Bowl contender. I think Stafford is criminally underrated and don’t blame him for the Lions’ lack of postseason success (he was 0-3 in the playoffs over 12 seasons with Detroit).

The Cardinals are headed to a make-or-break season for coach Kliff Kingsbury and will be a tough opponent as long as Kyler Murray’s around. The same is true for the Seahawks, although it’s fair to wonder if the Russell Wilson situation is a ticking time bomb or just something that makes for good offseason fodder. That team-quarterback relationship might be toxic enough to start bleeding into the loss column. Mr. Unlimited’s patience with a lackluster offensive line might be, um, limited.

I think the NFC West is the most fascinating division in the league and might also be the best. Though I’m sure fans in the AFC North would argue otherwise.

@Snafu_This asks: I can’t believe that Raheem Mostert is on the outs. Your thoughts?

I don’t believe Mostert is on the outs. I expect him to be the team’s starting running back come Week 1.

I think the 49ers, by drafting two running backs, are insulating themselves. Mostert’s first full season as the starter in 2020 resulted in eight games missed with a high ankle sprain, while it’s clear he can’t be counted on for 20 touches each week. Plus, the 29-year-old is entering the final year of his contract. Mostert is likely at his most useful getting 10 to 12 touches per game.

Will Mostert be back in 2022? Perhaps, but Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell will be around also with a year of experience under their belts. That uncertainty is just part of being an NFL running back — and why Mostert pushed for a new contract last offseason.

Nelson asks: Do you think Trey Sermon can eventually lead the backfield in carries in his first year?

That wouldn’t surprise me. Sermon is the highest-drafted running back since Shanahan took over in 2017. The team traded a pair of fourth-round picks to move up for him in Round 3 indicating they’re high on the Ohio State and Oklahoma alum. He seems better built for a between-the-tackles workload and could complement Lance in a zone read attack.

However, forecasting the 49ers’ top running backs each season is a difficult chore. The team’s leaders in carries since 2017: Carlos Hyde, Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman and Mostert (each had 137 in 2019) and Jeff Wilson Jr. Hyde was the team’s only projected top running back before the season to lead the team in carries.

Which is another way of saying whoever leads San Francisco in carries this season might be the guy that stays the most healthy over the 17-game slate. It might not be the guy who starts Week 1.