49ers mailbag: Why are experts predicting Mac Jones? Are QB intangibles overlooked?

There’s a bit of news regarding a former 49ers tight end before we get to this week’s mailbag.

Jordan Reed, who appeared in 10 games for San Francisco last season, announced his retirement Tuesday because of repeated concussions.

“I was pretty sure I was going to keep playing; I was feeling good about where I was at,” Reed said, according to ESPN. “But then I had some lingering effects and sought out professional help to get diagnosed. They told me it was not a good idea to keep playing. I agreed with them.”

Reed said his professional help came from Orlando’s Plasticity Center, where he took a brain scan. Reed had seven documented concussions over his seven NFL seasons.

Reed won’t be an option for the 49ers this season as they piece together their roster before the start of training camp this summer. The team brought Reed in last offseason to see if he could provide a pass catching threat to complement George Kittle, but the two were unable to get on the field together with any consistency as both dealt with injuries throughout the year.

Hopefully Reed will remain healthy in retirement.

Okay, mailbag time!

Joe asks: Why do you think so many well known analysts, even after recent second pro days for both Justin Fields and Trey Lance, still believe Mac Jones is the pick? Does it make sense to you that the Niners gave up all that they did to get to No. 3 with Mac in mind initially?

It’s fair to say most people inside the NFL believe the 49ers are going to take Jones and reporters are accurately reporting that sentiment.

But that doesn’t mean that’s the direction coach Kyle Shanahan is leaning. I remain steadfast in the belief Shanahan is keeping his decision close to the vest and members of the scouting department and coaching staff are still in the dark when it comes to the pick. Of course that would make it hard to believe reporters know for certain which player is being targeted.

Do I think the 49ers like Jones? Absolutely. Do I think they’re investing three first-round picks to land him? That I feel less confident about. I believe it’s more likely the 49ers are going for a guy with higher upside like Fields or Lance.

Jones has a lot of traits Shanahan covets in quarterbacks. He understands coverages, gets rid of the ball quickly and might be the most accurate passer in the class. So it’s not impossible that Shanahan prefers him over the other guys. Fortunately we’ll get the long-awaited answer to this question April 29.

Dustin asks: What are the main differences between Kyle’s offense in Matt Ryan’s elite year and the last few years with Jimmy? I would think looking at the year with Ryan would be a better gauge of what Kyle wants in a QB (with a touch of athleticism being added to Shanny’s evolved taste?)

It’s worth remembering Shanahan didn’t hand pick Matt Ryan. And the two had a rocky first season together in 2015 while Ryan was getting used to turning his back to the defense in Shanahan’s play-action-heavy scheme. Once he got comfortable with it, he started to take off.

I’m not sure Shanahan views Ryan as his template for the perfect quarterback for his offense. I think Shanahan is more malleable than the perception. It would stand to reason the 49ers would have been able to trade for Ryan at some point over the last few years for less than they gave the Dolphins to trade up to No. 3. They didn’t.

Shanahan was asked about his ideal quarterback after making the trade last month.

“You want an elite player and of course if you can get a guy who is elite with his arm and can play in that pocket and do everything and still run around and make off-schedule plays,” Shanahan said. “I mean, that’s what you’ve seen with (Patrick) Mahomes.

“I do think there’s more options coming into the league, but if you can’t sit in that pocket and play the position, eventually it’s not going to matter. So, they both go hand in hand. “

So Shanahan wants a quarterback that can operate from the pocket. That’s about all we know — and cases can be made Jones, Fields and Lance have proven they do that from varying levels. What’s less certain is which guy does it the best in Shanahan’s mind, and if any of the guys do other things well enough to overtake the other prospects.

Lexington asks: Everyone talks about who’s the best fit, who’s the best pocket passer etc... but how much stock do coaches really put in this? I’d like to think coaches see beyond that and will look at more detailed tangibles. Are they not looking for someone to mold? Who is the most moldable?

I love this question because so much of the lead up to the draft is silly.

Intangibles are a huge part of it — and it’s part of the evaluation process we aren’t privy to. We don’t know how the five one-hour Zoom meetings between these players and decision makers are going. We don’t know who retains information the best, who’s the best fit in the locker room or who’s going to end up being the best leader.

That’s all conjecture and it’s a massive piece of the puzzle. There’s no doubt that some of those things will weigh more than certain tendencies on film.

I do think Shanahan is looking for a quarterback to mold, and I remain steadfast in the belief the most moldable prospect in this class is Lance, particularly for what Shanahan wants. As a player, he’s a mix of Jones’ processing and Fields’ athleticism, and his work in a pro-style offense might make his transition to Shanahan’s offense smoother than the other two guys.

Why is the lead up to the draft silly?

Does anyone think Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t been successful because he came from a small school? Did Patrick Mahomes, who went 7-6 and 5-7 his last two college seasons, have a great resume at Texas Tech? If recruiting rankings and college careers are such important factors, why isn’t Tim Tebow the best quarterback any of us have ever seen?

Evaluating prospects is about isolating them as players and seeing how they help teams win football games. All the other stuff provides context, but they don’t define players as much as fans seem to believe.

JNiner asks: Out of Wilson, Fields, Jones and Lance. Who would have the most expectations right away? Who would get the most leeway? I think from the fan base Jones would be under the most pressure. I don’t see him getting much of that honeymoon phase from the faithful.

I agree with the last point. Fans don’t seem at all interested in Jones and it’s fascinating to consider the fallout if he were the pick given what’s at stake.

I think the expectations for the rookie would be the same no matter the pick. Shanahan wants to win Super Bowls. That’s the weight that will immediately placed on the rookie’s shoulders. And, to me, the answer is the same with leeway.

I think playoffs will be the expectation for whoever the pick is once he earns the starting job. The Super Bowl expectations will come soon after that.

Steve asks: What’s the thinking behind acquiring Nate Sudfeld? The only thing I can think of is that they’re going to cut Josh Rosen.

Quarterbacks coach Rich Scangarello worked with Sudfeld in Philadelphia, so it stands to reason he was brought in to compete with Rosen and Josh Johnson for the third quarterback job.

Rosen hasn’t done anything to be assured a roster spot. He’s been on practice squads since the start of last season and available to be signed by any team. The fact he hadn’t until the 49ers were in a dire injury situation speaks for itself.

Riley asks: Are we really gonna go best player available in Rounds 2 through 7 or do you think we reach for a need on Day 2?

I don’t think they’re going to reach for a need in the second round. Pick No. 43 is a prime spot for a cornerback, receiver, offensive lineman or pass rusher.

I’m expecting them to add a corner in Round 2. If not, it’s likely one of those other three spots.

Freddy asks: What is your fondest memory of Alex Smith?

The Divisional Round game against the New Orleans Saints after the 2011 season.

It was an incredible signature moment for a player that had gone through hell and back. It ultimately changed the perception of the fan base that, frankly, didn’t treat Smith all that well beforehand.

His rushing touchdown late in the fourth quarter, with Joe Staley sprinting ahead of Smith to throw the key block, will always stick out.

Ben asks: Is there a position of need where you can see the Niners trading up to grab a player late in the 1st round?

Maybe if they love a cornerback like Greg Newsome II or Caleb Farley, who seems to be falling down boards because of his recent back procedure. Otherwise, the 49ers don’t have a ton of assets to trade away after the move up to No. 3.

I think it’s more likely the team trades back for better picks in 2022 when the draft process can resume and the evaluation process isn’t hampered by the pandemic like it was this year.

Dewitt asks: If Jimmy Garoppolo is traded during the draft, what if anything could the team do with the cap space this season?

Barring a big surprise, there’s no big-ticket free agent available at the moment. Perhaps the 49ers could trade for a quality veteran at a key spot.

Someone like Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore, for example, might be moved by a cap-strapped team like the Saints because they might not have the flexibility to give him a long-term contract. But I wouldn’t count on it.

Keeping Garoppolo makes sense for the 49ers because they will gain cap room from his release either this year or the next. There’s no added benefit in getting rid of him this year for cap purposes. The cap space rolling over to next season would be the same amount of relief they would get if they released him before 2022.

Craig asks: If 49ers draft Lance and he sits for a year, how may days will it have been since he played in a football game? How many days since he played a game back to back weeks?

Lance played against Central Arkansas on Oct. 3. So, assuming he wouldn’t start until opening weekend of the 2022 season, that would be a 708-day stint between games.

And it would be 1,002 days between playing in back-to-back weeks dating back to 2022.

Those numbers are crazy to think about. But I think Lance is closer to playing than a lot of people think and could certainly start games at some point in 2021 if he’s the pick.