Who are the 49ers picking? The team has left clues, but a surprise could be coming

There have been three different betting favorites regarding the quarterback the 49ers will pick at No. 3 after they made the trade with the Miami Dolphins.

North Dakota State’s Trey Lance was the early favorite after the trade March 26, then it became Alabama’s Mac Jones amid a slew of national reporters connecting the dots to coach Kyle Shanahan. And after his recent pro day on Wednesday, Ohio State’s Justin Fields became the odds-makers’ top choice.

The movement speaks to the reality less than two weeks ahead of the first round of the NFL draft April 29. The circle of people who know which signal-caller Kyle Shanahan prefers is small, and there’s a belief Kyle’s father, Mike, a two-time Super Bowl winning coach with the Denver Broncos and former 49ers offensive coordinator, is involved in the evaluation process.

Anyone outside that circle can’t speak with certainty regarding the pick. Kyle Shanahan is keeping his decision close to the vest as he travels around the country watching these quarterbacks during their respective pro days. And Shanahan likely has already made his choice while his pro day tour is about getting as much information as possible. It would be a surprise if Shanahan, who rarely goes to pro days and prefers judging game film, changed his opinions after watching the prospects in the flesh (which would be a good reason not to be swayed by ever-changing betting odds).

“I normally don’t like to go to them a bunch unless I have to for some reason, but I also have been kind of grown up in the idea that you don’t like to go everywhere and show people things,” Shanahan said after making the trade, indicating he has less to hide picking at No. 3 than he would at 12, where he traded up from.

The next showcase comes Monday, when Lance will hold his second throwing session in front of teams in Fargo, N.D. It will be the first time Shanahan and general manager John Lynch watch Lance throw in person. At Lance’s previous pro day, March 12, two weeks before the 49ers made the trade with the Dolphins, San Francisco sent college scouting director Ethan Waugh and a regional scout to watch him throw.

Lance will probably soon be the favorite

Don’t be surprised if the betting odds swing again after visuals surface of Shanahan being jovial with Lance, with his signature to-go coffee cup in hand, as he did with Jones and Fields.

The draft’s speculation season has put Shanahan and the 49ers front and center, while their decision with the third pick will have ripples throughout the entire NFL. Many expect Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) and Zach Wilson (BYU) to be the first two quarterbacks off the board, putting San Francisco on the clock to dictate decisions from teams picking behind them.

The Atlanta Falcons picking at No. 4 are becoming a team of interest. ESPN reported earlier this month the Falcons are open to trading back, potentially to a team wanting a quarterback. Atlanta has Matt Ryan under contract through 2023 after his recent restructure that kept the team under the reduced salary cap for 2021. The deal also guaranteed him more money over the next two years, making it appear less likely they choose a new franchise quarterback this spring.

The Falcons could either take a premier pass-catcher, like Florida’s star tight end Kyle Pitts, or move back for a team in the market for Fields, Lance or Jones. The Patriots (picking at No. 15), Broncos (No. 9) and Washington (No. 19) could be poised to grab their next quarterback with a trade with Atlanta. Those decisions could depend on which player Shanahan chooses third.

There’s perhaps one more under-the-radar scenario that can’t be ruled out.

Yes, the Jets are heavily favored to pick Wilson by people both in and out of the league. But as BYU alum Steve Young said during a radio appearance March 31 on KNBR, Wilson’s family, from Draper, Utah, is being recruited by the Jets. If New York has any hesitancy about Wilson’s fit playing in the largest media market in the country, they could pivot and go another direction, leaving Wilson available to the 49ers at No. 3, or allow San Francisco to trade up one spot if they value Wilson enough to deal away more draft capital.

“There’s no question in my mind if they could figure out how to get Zach, that’s their number one first choice. I just don’t know how they get it done,” Young said. “The Jets have committed to Zach and recruited the family. I don’t know how that gets rundown, but look, a lot can happen. I think Zach would love it, the family would love it, nothing would make anyone happier for the 49ers. That’s their unstated first choice.”

Wilson could fall to the 49ers

If moving up one spot sounds crazy, it shouldn’t. Shanahan and Lynch were on the other side of a similar trade atop the 2017 draft when they moved from No. 2 to 3 in a swap with the Chicago Bears for third- and fourth-round picks that year, and another third in 2018.

Wilson aside, strong cases could be made for each of the remaining three quarterbacks. Fields might be the most popular choice among fans given his elite athleticism and resume playing for one of the top programs in the country. Lance is believed by many observers to have the most upside, but he might require a year of seasoning before he’s able to start. He turns 21 on May 9 while Fields turned 22 earlier this spring.

Jones might be the most polarizing prospect, while many believe his traditional style as a pocket passer translates best given his ability to process and get the ball out of his hands quickly, which some believe Shanahan values above all else.

Much of the conversation surrounding Jones involves his lack of athleticism and ability to make plays outside the pocket, which has become a signature of some of the best quarterbacks in the league. Some believe what Jones does between the ears is the difference.

“What makes him attractive is the incredible intelligence,” ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper said on a conference call this week. “Some guys are smart, some guys are just off the charts intelligent. The way he gets the plays, communicates the plays, the way he picks up offenses and concepts, all the things he does so quickly. At the Senior Bowl, it was amazing what he did down there.

“You can say super-super intelligent, super-super accurate, super competitive. Then that’s all the things that allow Tom Brady to be successful. And that’s not saying he’s going to be Tom Brady, he’s the greatest of all time, but who thought he was going to be anywhere close to that when he was a late sixth-round pick coming out of Michigan?”

The odds are highly against Jones, or any of the prospects, joining Brady as a multiple Super Bowl winner. And while we won’t know Shanahan’s preference until the name is called April 29, we do know winning multiple championships is Shanahan’s top priority.

Many 49ers to skip offseason program, but not unanimously

The NFL Players Association on Saturday morning released a statement on behalf of 49ers players indicating many players will not participate in the upcoming offseason program slated to start next week.

A handful of players, including Jimmy Garoppolo, Arik Armstead, Jimmie Ward and George Kittle, have hefty workout bonuses in their contract. Garoppolo’s is worth $600,000 and he might feel inclined to participate in the offseason program to help ensure his status as the starting quarterback despite the team drafting another signal-caller with the third overall pick.

As many as 10 teams have already said they will not participate in their offseason programs while others have done the same as San Francisco, indicating they won’t unanimously skip them. Teams in 2020 had their entire offseason program done virtually over Zoom and didn’t get in-person work until reporting for training camp in late July.