The 49ers’ quarterback draft choice will either make Shanahan a hero or unemployed

We don’t know plenty of things for sure about the decision 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is going to make with the No. 3 overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft April 29.

Which quarterback is he going to take? Will that player be good enough to start right away, leading to the team’s sooner-than-expected departure from Jimmy Garoppolo? Will that young quarterback be the right player to keep San Francisco in Super Bowl contention for the foreseeable future?

There are also plenty of conclusions we can already make.

Namely, Shanahan isn’t satisfied with three losing seasons in four years while having multiple campaigns derailed by Garoppolo’s injuries. He’s grown weary of blowing double-digit second-half leads in the Super Bowl (which has happened twice for him as a play-caller since 2016). And he’s ready to assert himself as one of the best coaches in the NFL, not just by reputation but by resume.

Oh, and one more thing. His commitment to his next young signal-caller is going to the biggest decision he ever makes as a coach.

No pressure, Kyle.

The pick and the next five to 10 years will define Shanahan’s coaching career. He has an opportunity to nail it by finding the next 49ers super star to join Joe Montana and Steve Young as franchise pillars that led teams to Lombardi trophies.

Or Shanahan’s quarterback will fall flat, making April 29 the unofficial start to the countdown toward his eventual firing. He’ll have missed on Garoppolo, who was given a five-year, $137.5 million contract on the strength of his five-game performance in 2017, which led to trading three first-round draft picks for the chance to find his replacement. Few coaches are given the opportunity to come back from two of those mistakes.

‘Compete for and win Super Bowls’

This is the NFL, after all, and rarely do coaches exit on their own terms. Anything less than winning Super Bowls fails to live up to the organization’s expectations, which have been stated by Shanahan and CEO Jed York. It’s true even for Shanahan, who in 2020 was given a contract extension through the 2025 season, which coincidentally would run through the entirety of rookie’s first contract.

“It’s up to us to make sure we compete for and win Super Bowls,” York said after “mutually” parting with Jim Harbaugh in 2014. “That’s our only goal. We don’t raise division championship banners, we don’t raise NFC Championship banners. We raise Super Bowl banners. And whenever we don’t deliver that, I hope that you will hold me directly responsible and accountable for it. And we look forward to getting this thing back on track.”

That must be the lens in which this decision is judged by.

Shanahan can’t feel comfortable with being competitive and making the playoffs until the season ends in a parade down Market Street in San Francisco. Getting to the playoffs and getting ousted regularly won’t be acceptable for a roster featuring George Kittle, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Brandon Aiyuk all in their primes — paired with a rushing attack that should be among the league’s most effective as long as Shanahan’s in charge.

Shanahan guided the 49ers from 2-14 in 2016 to the Super Bowl after just three years at the helm, and had a 20-10 lead on the Chiefs until the midway mark of the fourth quarter. That was with arguably the NFL’s best defense whose coordinator, Robert Saleh, is now the head coach of the New York Jets.

Making up for the defense taking a predictable step back with Saleh gone will be the 49ers offense going to another level, which falls directly on Shanahan’s decision and his grooming of Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Trey Lance or perhaps Zach Wilson, should the Jets do something unexpected and not take the BYU alum with the No. 2 overall pick.

“You hope to be competing to get into the playoffs every single year, which is the ultimate deal to get you a chance at the Super Bowl. So that’s your goal every year,” Shanahan said. “The more you look into this league, it’s, especially our four years here, it’s very hard to succeed when your starting quarterback doesn’t say healthy or if you don’t have one of those true starting quarterbacks. We’ve gotten that with Jimmy. He’s played at a very high level when he’s played. It’s been tough, the two years he’s missed. It’s been hard to compete the same way, so we knew we had to look into that this year.”

Is Shanahan set on Jones?

Shanahan has a chance to change the narrative surrounding what he looks for in quarterbacks.

Many in the NFL are expecting him to draft Alabama’s Jones, who fits in the statuesque archetype of other quarterbacks he’s worked with, like Matt Ryan, Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins and Matt Schaub. Those beliefs throughout the league appear to be fueling the speculation that Jones will be the pick, even while many involved in the decision-making process (scouts and coaches) aren’t privy to Shanahan’s decision just yet. It’s more than likely Shanahan already had a quarterback in mind when he made the trade with the Dolphins on March 26.

Jones would hardly be surprising. Shanahan has been stubborn in the past. He passed on a chance to draft Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson in 2017 because he was set on signing Cousins in free agency during the 2018 offseason, before Garoppolo fell into his lap at the trade deadline. Jones is a polarizing prospect who wasn’t discussed as a top-five pick until the 49ers made the move to No. 3.

But the league is changing and the athletic, dynamic quarterbacks are becoming all the rage. The only stationary signal-caller that’s enjoyed playoff success recently is Tom Brady, and any coach looking to draft the next Brady is either an unmitigated genius or completely off his rocker.

Beating Mahomes, Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson might take more than Shanahan’s genius. A case can be made it will require the quarterback to offer his own genius when things break down in ways Ryan and Garoppolo couldn’t when they needed to keep the chains moving during their Super Bowl meltdowns.

Last year’s championship round tells the story. The final four quarterbacks were Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers and Brady. Mahomes, Allen and Rodgers all have elite arms and can throw on the run, and all can make plays when things break down.

Wilson, whom Shanahan has played eight times the last four years, offers the best example of a player that transcends surroundings. The Seahawks have made the playoffs the last three years with a defense that ranked Nos. 22, 26 and 16 in yardage, respectively. The offensive line allowed the fifth-, ninth- and eighth-most sacks in the NFL. All the while Wilson’s passer rating hasn’t dropped below 105.1.

Wilson’s knack for making plays outside the structure of the offense has helped Seattle overcome its shortcomings elsewhere since the “Legion of Boom” was disbanded after 2017, leaving coach Pete Carroll a mediocre defense ever since. Seattle’s roster hasn’t been particularly strong, yet Wilson gives Seattle a chance any time he steps on the field, as Shanahan knows all too well.

“He’s got a chance to win no matter what the situation is, no matter how the game has gone so far and he probably does that as good as anyone that I’ve ever seen,” Shanahan told reporters in Seattle in December.

A player who can overcome circumstances, like Wilson, can give Shanahan the best shot at competing year in and year out, while stationary quarterbacks like Garoppolo or Ryan cannot win Super Bowls with scheme and ideal circumstances alone. Even Brady needed arguably the NFL’s best roster to win his seventh championship in February, with the help of the Chiefs’ tattered offensive line being unable to give Mahomes any time.

Perhaps that’s the lesson Shanahan’s learned since becoming 49ers head coach. He needs to plan for circumstances outside of his scheme, like a rash of injuries or a defense that no longer has Richard Sherman, DeForest Buckner or Saleh.

That type of quarterback is more likely to be Fields, Lance or Wilson. Or maybe Jones is being overlooked and is the next Brady. But that bet comes with much longer odds.

Pick the right guy and Shanahan could take his legacy to the next level. Making the wrong choice could lead to a huge backlash, and ultimately, the unemployment line.