5 keys to Packers beating Vikings in Week 17

Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur can improve to 16-2 against the NFC North and 39-9 overall when the Minnesota Vikings come to Lambeau Field for a frigid showdown between division rivals in Week 17.

The Packers, now 12-3, will get to 13 regular-season wins for the third straight season under LaFleur with a victory.

The Vikings won the first meeting and desperately need a win to stay alive in the race for the final playoff spot in the NFC. But Mike Zimmer’s team faces a significant hurdle: quarterback Kirk Cousins is out for Sunday after testing positive for COVID-19.

Here are five keys to the Packers beating the Vikings on Sunday night:

Rattle the backup QB early

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Sean Mannion, who has two career starts and a career passer rating of 57.5, will start in place of Kirk Cousins on Sunday night. The 2015 third-round pick hasn’t appeared in a game this season and hasn’t played in a regular-season game since 2019. He’s a tall (6-6) pocket quarterback without great mobility, and he turned the ball over a bunch as a four-year starter at Oregon State. The goal for the Packers defense should be straightforward: disrupt the pocket, speed up the process and force Mannion into mistakes. If the Packers pressure Mannion in the cold, turnovers could come in bunches.

Get Vikings into obvious passing situations

(AP Photo/Mike Roemer)

The Vikings will attempt to protect Mannion with a heavy dose of the run game and short, easy passes. The Packers have struggled to stop the run since the bye and are coming off the team’s worst run-stopping performance of the season against the Browns, so expect Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison to get a chance to carry the load on offense. The Packers need to be strong on early downs and force the Vikings to put the game in Mannion’s hands. Joe Barry’s defense will like their chances if Cook and Mattison aren’t efficient on first and second down and Mannion must make tough throws into coverage on third down or other obvious passing situations. Cook is capable of taking over a game. Without Cousins on the field, the Packers can and should be able to focus forces on taking Cook and the run game away.

Tae on the Tundra

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (17).

The extreme cold (like is forecasted for Green Bay on Sunday night) can serve to slow down the pass-rush and put coverage players in difficult positions. Cornerback is a reactive position, and the cold can make for slippery footing and slow reactions on the field. You see where this is going. Davante Adams, who caught 10 passes and scored a pair of touchdowns last week, is hard enough to cover on normal surfaces. Can the Vikings, who released Bashaud Breeland last month and might not have Cam Dantzler (doubtful), keep Adams from going off in the cold? Don’t be surprised if he does his best Plaxico Burress (in the 2007 NFC title game) imitation in sub-freezing temps on Sunday night.

Stay aggressive

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The Packers have won by two scores or led by at least two scores in every home game this season. This is a good football team that has dominated at times at Lambeau Field, but Matt LaFleur needs to stay aggressive and let his MVP quarterback put teams away late. It might not matter against Sean Mannion and the Vikings on Sunday night, but it will matter when a team comes to Lambeau Field for a playoff game later this month. The Packers lack the dominant defense needed to slam the door shut. It’s time to let Rodgers and Davante Adams do the closing. In the cold on Sunday night, 247-pound running back A.J. Dillon should also get a chance to be the hammer to the game’s nail. He won’t be fun to tackle if the Packers are leading into the second half.

Don't implode on special teams

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The Packers are big favorites, but special teams can provide a neutralizing effect in poor weather conditions. And everyone knows how combustible Maurice Drayton’s group can be when things start to go wrong. Kicking will be an adventure for both teams, and so will kicking off. Mason Crosby might not have the leg to boom touchbacks in the cold against kick returner Kene Nwangwu, who has two kick return touchdowns this season. The Vikings may need a one-sided performance on special teams to pull off the upset, but the Packers certainly know how to miss kicks, allow big returns and turn the ball over on special teams. It’s a good bet Green Bay wins if the third phase doesn’t have a game-turning negative play.

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