Here are 5 of the most competitive Senate seats in 2024
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Compared to the Republican-led House of Representatives, where power struggles have broken out in part because of the GOP’s narrow majority, the Democrat-controlled Senate appears tame.
But because of the election calendar, more Democrats are up for reelection this year than Republicans — and several of those Democrats are in hotly contested seats.
According to Ballotpedia, of the 33 seats up for election in 2024, 10 are held by Republicans, 20 by Democrats and three are held by independents who caucus with Democrats.
There are several Democratic senators going into the 2024 election at a disadvantage, as Republicans hope to flip seats in Arizona, Ohio, West Virginia and Montana.
Here are five Senate seats that have a chance of flipping in 2024, along with recent polling numbers indicating how candidates are performing.
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a Democrat-turned-independent, hasn’t announced whether she will run for reelection next year, although reports indicate that her team is laser-focused on ways to win the race. But she faces tough competition from a possible Democratic challenger, Rep. Ruben Gallego, and from Republican Kari Lake.
Lake was the Republican nominee in the Arizona governor’s race in 2022 and lost to Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat. But Lake did not accept the results of the election, later contesting them in court.
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According to a recent poll, Lake is in the lead in a hypothetical three-way contest, with Lake at 37%, Gallego at 33% and Sinema at 19%.
Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio has a tough road ahead in one of the closest races in 2024. Even though the odds are tough, Brown has a good track record of winning as Ohio’s only Democratic senator since 2012. His Republican challengers are lining up, with candidates like Secretary of State Frank LaRose, state Sen. Matt Dolan and businessman Bernie Moreno, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer.
An October poll from Emerson College found that Dolan and Moreno are ahead by two percentage points and LaRose by one, showcasing just how competitive this race will be for Brown, who has become a voice for the blue-collar workers of Ohio.
Sen. Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, hasn’t announced his decision on whether he’ll run for reelection but has teased a potential presidential run as an independent, as The Texas Tribune reported in September. While Manchin, who has held the seat since 2010, is unable to commit to one political path, the popular Republican Gov. Jim Justice, among other candidates, has entered the Senate race.
Manchin is trailing Justice by 13 percentage points, with 28% support compared to Justice’s 41%, according to an October poll from Emerson College. Manchin performs better against Republican Rep. Alex Mooney, with a 37% to 31% margin.
Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in 2018 narrowly defeated Beto O’Rourke, the then-representative who is now running for governor of Texas. That was the most expensive Senate race that year. In 2024, Cruz is up against state Sen. Collin Allred, who will most likely earn the Democratic nomination, as reported by the Dallas Morning News.
Allred, who is “well-known and well-liked,” according to NPR, raised $4.7 million in the third quarter. Meanwhile, Cruz said his campaign raised $5.4 million in the same quarter, but “that was a combined total of money he raised into three separate accounts,” reported the Texas Tribune. A poll from May put Cruz in the lead, with 42% compared to Allred’s 37%.
Sen. Jon Tester is a moderate Democrat in the red state of Montana. His Republican challengers so far are Gallatin County businessman and Navy veteran Tim Sheehy and former Montana Secretary of State Brad Johnson, while Rep. Matt Rosendale is speculated to jump into the race.
As The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, a rightward shift in Montana may make Tester’s chances of winning a fourth term much more difficult, which Republicans see as an opportunity. An Emerson College poll from early October places Tester ahead of Sheehy by barely four percentage points, with 39% to 35%.
