The 5 seats the Pa. GOP feels it can flip to secure a veto-proof Senate majority

GOP strategists are eyeing a handful of seats occupied by first-term Pennsylvania legislators as key to advancing toward a veto-proof majority in the state Senate.

"Our priority is defending our Republican majority and at this point we feel confident in our ability to hold the Republican majority in the State Senate this cycle with the terrific candidates we have," Michael D. Straw, communications director for the Pennsylvania Senate Republican Campaign Committee, said in an email. "At this time, there are many competitive races that SRCC is targeting to flip as well."

"With a strong Republican environment and the deep unpopularity of Joe Biden and the Democrat Party, it is difficult to narrow our priorities to just 1 or 2."

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In the Pennsylvania General Assembly, the GOP can grab a veto-proof majority by adding just five seats to their 28-21 advantage over Democrats. They face a much taller task to that end in the House, where their lead of 113-90 is well short of the 135 seats needed.

Here are the five seats identified by Straw as ripe for Republican pick-ups in this year's election.

Senate District 26: Tim Kearney vs. Frank Agovino

Pennsylvania state Sen. Tim Kearney (D-Chester/Delaware) is among the first-term legislators the GOP has identified as ready for an upset.

A professional architect and former borough mayor, Kearney defeated incumbent Republican Thomas McCarrigle in 2018. Kearney now faces upstart GOP nominee Frank Agovino of Springfield.

Agovino said his entry to the political sphere was prompted in part by the pandemic policies of Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf, which impacted his banquet facility, restaurant, bar and coffee shop where he employs approximately 60.

"My wife is also a small business owner, she owns a salon also in the district. Our businesses were both brought to the brink," he said.

"It just seemed kind of unfair that larger box stores were open and the smaller businesses were kind of crushed. We didn't have a voice from our local legislators at all. It was safe to shop in Walmart, but not safe to frequent a mom-and-pop restaurant?"

To win this seat, Agovino will need to overcome a significant voter registration challenge, as Democrats outnumber Republicans by approximately 18,000.

But he said his positions, such as supporting law enforcement and a "common sense energy policy" to expand natural gas production in Pennsylvania, should resonate with district residents. He believes that Republican turnout will be high and that non-affiliated voters will be the difference.

"It feels like the independents are breaking our way."

Kearney did not respond to a phone call or email seeking comment.

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Senate District 10: Steven J. Santarsiero vs. Matt McCullough

State Sen. Steven J. Santarsiero (D-Bucks) is another first-term senator facing a challenger. Matt McCullough has secured the Republican nomination for Pennsylvania's Senate District 10.

"I feel pretty confident about our race," Santarsiero said.

"We're really working very hard, both in field and fundraising. But I don't take anything for granted, ever."

Unlike many first-term senators, Santarsiero has significant and longtime name recognition.

Santarsiero was a state representative before senator, having first been elected to the commonwealth's General Assembly in 2008. He's a current member of the Judiciary, Appropriations, Consumer Protection & Professional Licensure, Environmental Resources & Energy and Intergovernmental Operations committees.

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"This is not my first rodeo," he said.

Overall, he added, his work to improve the local economy and invest in the community is being recognized. He feels he's also more in sync with voters because of his support for gun control and abortion rights.

"When they look at my record and see where I am on the issues and the work that I've done, I feel confident," Santarsiero said.

The numbers also remain on Santarsiero's side. Democrats outnumber Republicans by approximately 20,000, a 10-percentage point advantage, in Senate District 10.

But McCullough — a board-certified registered nurse anesthetist who started his own healthcare company in 2014 — expressed optimism.

"We can win this district. We know this because we talk to voters every single day and we hear their concerns," he said in an email to the USA TODAY Network. "To them, this isn’t about (Democrat) or Republican. This is about which candidate is going to stand up and fight for them, not special interests. That candidate is me."

"As a healthcare worker, a small business owner, and a father, I have seen firsthand how tough (the economy has) been, and I have been a part of the solution."

If elected, McCullough said, he would oppose new taxes and "any legislation that results in increased price to consumers, be that in products or energy cost increases."

Senate District 44: Katie Muth vs. Jessica Florio

State Sen. Katie Muth (D-Berks/Chester/Montgomery) knocked off incumbent Republican John Rafferty four years ago. This year the GOP hopes to return the favor.

Muth is opposed by Republican Jessica Florio in this year's race for Pennsylvania Senate District 44.

On paper, Muth faces the stiffest test of all state senators identified by the Pennsylvania Senate Republican Campaign Committee. There are approximately 400 more Republicans than Democrats in Senate District 44.

"I think that we're doing the work," Muth said. "We've done the work all through 2018 and my first term."

According to Muth, the longstanding Republican majority in Harrisburg is failing Pennsylvanians.

"(They) use government to make money for special interests," she said. "They're going to spend big money to lie about people" in this election.

Florio, her opponent, is a special education teacher who serves as a borough council president.

"As I have been traveling around the district and hearing from voters, it is clear that all of us are feeling the full impact of the inflation caused by bad policies," Florio said in an email.

"Over the past year, we have seen prices rise for gas (44%), eggs (32%), fruits and vegetables (8.2%), meat (13.1%), and milk (15.9%) to name a few. We are all tired of running from one economic or social crisis to the next which are exacerbated and fueled by extremist political opportunists, like my opponent."

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Senate District 38: Lindsey Williams vs. Lori Mizgorski

There's little mystery about why Republicans feel good about Pennsylvania Senate District 38 despite trailing Democrats by 15 percentage points in voter registration.

State Rep. Lindsey Williams (D-Allegheny) won her first election against the GOP's Jeremy Shaffer by just a few hundred votes in 2018. She replaced Republican state Sen. Randy Vulakovich, who had lost his primary to Shaffer.

This year Williams faces a challenger in state Rep. Lori Mizgorski (R-Allegheny). Williams said she's committed herself to continual community outreach during her entire term.

"I think one of the things that separates me is my attention to constituents," she said.

Williams added that she's committed to accountability and transparency in government. She posts all of her monthly legislative expenses on her website and has introduced to make this a requirement for all members of the Pennsylvania General Assembly.

Mizgorski did not return a phone call seeking comment.

Senate District 18: Lisa M. Boscola vs. John Merhottein

Of the five seats identified by Straw, the outlier is the one held by state Sen. Lisa M. Boscola (D-Lehigh/Northampton).

Unlike the others on the list, Boscola is a long-tenured Pennsylvania official. She was first elected to the commonwealth's Senate District 18 in 1998 after serving two terms as a state representative.

This year she faces GOP competition from businessman, Marine veteran and township official John Merhottein.

"We are not taking anything for granted, and we plan to run as she's always run, which is a strong robust campaign," said Celeste Dee, a campaign spokesperson for Boscola. "We're going to reinforce the senator's achievements and success that she's had, and just her record of being independent and fighting for the needs of her community."

According to Dee, Boscola relies on her middle-class roots to center her focus on community investments and property tax reform to assist the working families of her area.

"We feel confident that she has a strong record, and that we have a strong plan and the resources to execute it, so that the senator can go back to Harrisburg and continue fighting for the people of the 18th District," Dee said.

Merhotten did not return a phone call.

Bruce Siwy is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network's Pennsylvania state capital bureau. He can be reached at bsiwy@gannett.com or on Twitter at @BruceSiwy. Bucks County Courier Times reporter Chris Ullery assisted with research for this article.

This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: Incumbent PA Democratic senators at risk of losing election