With 10 games left in the strange odyssey that has been the 2020 MLB season, the Mets are 23-27, trailing the Philadelphia Phillies by 1.5 games for the final Wild Card spot in the National League.
According to the playoff odds at FanGraphs, the Mets currently have a 27.5 percent chance to make the playoffs -- with those odds having jumped up from 19.2 percent before Thursday's win.
The Mets have a lot of work ahead of them, but they're right there. Here's what needs to happen for them to make it in...
A 7-3 or 6-4 record over their final 10 games
A 7-3 finish would give them a 30-30 record, while a 6-4 finish would put them at 29-31.
If you look at the standings right now, you'll see that every team in baseball with a record of .500 or better is currently holding a playoff spot. If the Mets can finish at .500 or above, it's likely that they'll be rewarded with a trip to October.
Jacob deGrom must make his final two starts
DeGrom, who left his start on Wednesday after just two innings due to a hamstring spasm, felt fine on Thursday, with manager Luis Rojas calling it a "positive day."
As things currently stand, deGrom would be in line to start two of the Mets' final 10 games -- Sept. 21 against the Rays and Sept. 26 against the Nats.
The Mets won the last two nights while getting next to nothing from deGrom and Lugo, but that kind of success is not sustainable. They need deGrom back, and they need him to dominate.
That is not to say deGrom should pitch if he's not feeling right. In that case, the Mets must shut him down, regardless of what it would mean for their playoff hopes.
The Mets need to clean up the mistakes
The Mets have arguably been better than their record, with their positive run differential a good indicator of that.
But they have been killed by self-inflicted mistakes, including ones that happened recently -- such as Jeff McNeil running into outs on the bases, Amed Rosario getting picked off first base, Wilson Ramos playing poor defense, and some bad situational awareness during key at-bats.
With every game meaning so much -- and against really good competition the next six games -- the Mets need to play crisp baseball.
The Mets need to get some help elsewhere
Because of how poorly the Mets have played at times this season, they're not in control of their own destiny.
Looking ahead a bit, the Phillies finish the regular season with four games against the Nats and three games against the Rays, while the Giants will face the Colorado Rockies four times and the San Diego Padres four times.
The bullpen must excel
The Mets' bullpen has bailed them out the last two nights, and has been getting stellar work recently from Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia (who has allowed just one run since Aug. 25), and Justin Wilson (who has allowed just one run since Aug. 26).
With the starting rotation still a weak spot, New York is going to have to rely on its bullpen in order to get to October.