5 things to watch for in Arizona governor's race between Katie Hobbs and Kari Lake

The battle lines are drawn: Republican Kari Lake, the former Phoenix newscaster, will take on Democrat Katie Hobbs, the secretary of state, in the race for Arizona's next governor.

Lake was declared the winner over three GOP challengers on Thursday evening, two days after Hobbs trounced her own competitor to clinch the Democratic spot.

Arizonans will choose one as their 24th governor in November, replacing Gov. Doug Ducey, who is term limited.

Here are five things to watch in the heated race ahead:

1. Prepare for rematch: 2020

Arizonans who are tired of hearing about 2020's election had better buckle up, as the state's highest profile contests in November will pit critics of the presidential election two years ago against the people who ran them.

Lake, who won Trump's endorsement, has furthered false claims he won in 2020, an election that Hobbs oversaw as secretary of state and that she has vehemently defended. Lake has called for Hobbs' imprisonment for the result, and earlier this week said Hobbs "broke laws."

"I know for a fact that there's not an equal, level playing field when it comes to the justice system. The Democrats never go to prison," Lake said.

And Mark Finchem, an Oro Valley Republican who won his party's nomination for secretary of state, will face Democratic contender Adrian Fontes, who was the recorder in Maricopa County for the 2020 election. Finchem campaigned on his belief the election two years ago was stolen, garnering Trump's endorsement along the way. The Associated Press declared Fontes the winner of the Democratic nomination on Thursday evening.

“This is the defining race for our Republic," Fontes said. "It will let the world know whether we will surrender to foolish conspiracies or whether we will support our Republic that Benjamin Franklin so eloquently said needs to be kept.”

2. Where will independents land?

Roughly one in three Arizona voters is a registered independent, and their support is critical to pulling out a victory in November.

The effort to win them over might involve toning down the partisan rhetoric both candidates have showed on the campaign trail so far, whether it was Hobbs declaring "f--- the patriarchy" on Twitter (and spelling out the expletive) earlier this year when the nation learned abortion rights were in jeopardy, or Lake's insistence illegal immigration is an "invasion" that requires the state to respond with force.

Hobbs and Lake immediately signaled they would court those votes, albeit sending different messages to those voters.

"This race for governor isn’t about Democrats or Republicans," Hobbs said in a statement. "It’s a choice between sanity and chaos."

Lake said she would "bring independents into the Republican Party and Democrats into the Republican Party, because we know that America First policies — and we saw this under President Trump — are the only way to solve the problems that we're facing right now."

3. Will Republicans support Lake?

Lake may to have consider building support among fellow Republicans before she can focus on independent voters, however.

During her campaign she has attacked establishment Republican figures, including Ducey, the late U.S. Sen. John McCain and former Vice President Mike Pence. Asked this week how she would mend the damage, she offered a metaphor of a large family whose members may have differences, but that ultimately come together in the end.

This family may need more help to find its harmony, however.

Whether the GOP voters will come willingly, require coaxing or put up a wall remains an open question, especially if Lake continues espousing divisive election lies that have led to civil war within the Republican party across the nation.

4. What\'s getting said, and not said

A leading establishment figure on the national stage, Ducey came out in support of Lake's opponent for the Republican nomination, Karrin Taylor Robson. He did more than offer his endorsement: The governor who rarely criticizes fellow Republicans went on national television to bash Lake.

How Ducey gets involved in the race going forward is complicated at the least. The Republican Governors Association, which Ducey co-chairs, put out a statement congratulating Lake on Thursday. Instead of coming from Ducey and co-chair Gov. Pete Ricketts of Nebraska, as is practice for the group, this time the statement came from vice chair Gov. Kim Reynolds of Iowa.

"Arizona families want a leader who will fight back against the failed policies of Joe Biden and Democrats and that’s exactly what they got with Kari Lake — she’s a fighter,” Reynolds said in the statement.

"The RGA congratulates Kari on her primary victory, and we look forward to working to get her elected governor this November.”

The fundraising organization that backs Republicans has booked over $10 million in television advertising in Arizona over the next three months to help defeat Hobbs.

Meanwhile the Democratic counterpart, the Democratic Governors Association, put out its own statement — and didn't mention Hobbs.

“Kari Lake is a diehard MAGA extremist who has centered her campaign on far-right conspiracy theories and dangerous policies," the statement from Executive Director Noam Lee reads, using the acronym for Trump's Make America Great Again movement.

"As her fellow Republicans like Gov. Doug Ducey have said throughout the campaign — Lake is too extreme and too dangerous for Arizona. Now Lake enters the general election as an unelectable extremist with a fractured Republican base."

5. Can Hobbs rebut the attacks?

The Republican Governors Association already has begun blasting Hobbs over border issues and as it seeks to portray her as unfit to lead the group may turn to another issue: a discrimination case Hobbs was involved in last year.

The lawsuit brought and won by a former Senate aide who worked under Hobbs' leadership in the Arizona Senate didn't appear to sway many voters in the primary, who elected Hobbs by a 3-to-1 margin. But a general election is a different battlefield, a bigger one, with more money flowing to portray candidates in a negative light.

The aide, a Black woman, proved to juries she was fired in retaliation after raising concern to Hobbs and others that she experienced discrimination because she made significantly less than white male peers. The case alienated some community leaders of color, and few Democrats have been willing to criticize Hobbs for her role or her response, which she later acknowledged was defensive.

The case, and attention on it, could turn into a bigger problem for Hobbs if the RGA adds it to the forthcoming barrage of attack ads.

Hobbs' opponents signaled they hadn't forgotten the firing, also nodding to a recent story in the Arizona Agenda newsletter about staff fleeing Hobbs' campaign.

In a statement early Friday, Arizona Senate President Karen Fann, a Prescott Republican, called for voters to rally against Hobbs, "who has so far proven she is unfit to hold any kind of leadership role with her previous mismanagement of our elections and the toxic environment she created for those who worked under her."

Reach reporter Stacey Barchenger at stacey.barchenger@arizonarepublic.com or 480-416-5669. Follow her on Twitter @sbarchenger.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: What to know as Kari Lake, Katie Hobbs battle to be AZ's next governor