5 things to watch when Florida lawmakers gather at the Capitol, from defectors to re-do's

TALLAHASSEE – A year ago, Gov. Ron DeSantis had just been sworn in for a second term and, with eyes trained on the White House, boasted in his inaugural speech that Florida is “where woke goes to die.”

Now, DeSantis is a wounded candidate, miles behind Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump. But again, like last year, DeSantis’ future may shape the 2024 legislative session.

Here is what to look for over the 60-day session, which starts Jan. 9 with a 'State of the State' address from the governor.

Hawkeye State hangover?

The Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses, the nation’s first election contest, could prove a significant date in Florida.

Coming six days after the kick-off of Florida’s legislative session, a DeSantis second-place finish in Iowa could keep him struggling ahead toward New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada primaries, which follow in quick succession.

That could change some of the policies that become “must-pass” for the GOP-dominated Florida Legislature. Watch for more attacks on immigration, inflation and maybe even some more culture war measures this spring – if DeSantis needs to keep his name before voters.

But if DeSantis fades to third, behind Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, that may be curtains for the Florida governor’s presidential ambitions. DeSantis could be back in Tallahassee full-time while state lawmakers take on a more customary pass-the-budget-and-go-home-to-campaign approach this election year.

DeSantis defections

When he was launching his presidential campaign in May, DeSantis crowed about having endorsements from 99 Florida Republican legislators. That number is now down to 93, with the defecting handful going to Trump.

But even if more lawmakers don’t openly bolt to Trump, there’s growing acknowledgment within the GOP caucus that the governor is not on his way to the White House.

Will DeSantis’ course correction cause a compliant Legislature to suddenly break with him on policy or some gubernatorial demand? If that happens, this session will be the stage.

Senate President Kathleen Passidomo, R-Naples, and House Speaker Paul Renner, R-Palm Coast, have been DeSantis loyalists, so they’re probably unlikely to green-light any insurrection. And DeSantis holding 93 Republicans endorsements in a Legislature with 160 members is still significant.

Most of all, DeSantis still has a governor’s power to veto bills and budget priorities of lawmakers. There’s little advantage for any lawmaker to get crossways with the governor.

But DeSantis’ star appears to be dimming. And the 2026 governor’s contest is fast-approaching, when Floridians will choose a successor to the term-limited DeSantis.

Watch over the next two months of session for signs of what’s been an “OK” to the governor turning into a “nuh-uh.”

Culture clashes calming?

After a couple of years of Florida Republicans feasting on bills aimed at the LGBTQ community, library books and diversity programs, lawmakers may be dialing back.

Of course, DeSantis’ “war on woke” hasn’t completely gone away. Rep. Blaise Ingoglia, R-Spring Hill, has a measure that would ask Florida voters to prohibit state or local governments from paying reparations for descendants of slaves, for instance. No such proposals are viably out there in Florida. But Ingoglia’s proposed constitutional amendment would make sure they never take hold.

There’s also legislation that would ban cities, schools or universities from displaying LGBTQ “Pride” flags and another protecting Confederate monuments.

GOP lawmakers, always eager to get atta-boys from conservative media, also have filed bills expanding vaccine exemptions and prohibiting state agencies from contracting with NewsGuard, the rating system intended to blunt misinformation.

But to a degree, Republican supermajorities in the House and Senate may be less inclined to trigger more heated culture war clashes. The trajectory of the DeSantis campaign shows a majority of Americans don’t share his appetite for going after marginalized populations.

Legislative do's and re-do's

Every session has its new ideas. The Senate, for example, has put in play big-ticket proposals to “deregulate” public schools by reducing requirements and another aimed at bolstering the health care workforce and improving patient access.

But lawmakers in both chambers may find themselves spending a lot of time back on issues already tackled in previous years.

Congressional redistricting could be again before lawmakers – if state or federal courts rule the DeSantis-pushed plan approved in 2022 was unconstitutional because of the harm done to Black voters. The new boundaries helped elect four new Republicans to Congress from Florida but also eliminated a North Florida seat held for decades by a Black Democrat, spawning lawsuits.

Could redistricting come back? Florida high court looks poised to step into congressional redistricting clash

Property insurance, already the subject of two special sessions in 2022, continues to draw attention, with Florida rates still among the nation’s highest. A DeSantis proposal includes a one-year exemption on taxes, fees and assessments for homeowners of properties valued up to $750,000.

Lawmakers also could revisit laws limiting transgender health care and DeSantis’ battle with Walt Disney World after he ended its self-governing status. Both issues are mired in state and federal court clashes and GOP lawmakers have in the past come to the governor’s rescue by rewriting laws that looked certain to run afoul of judges.

2024 could see more of that cleanup work.

Property insurance, still sky high: When will Florida homeowners' insurance costs drop? No answer from state commissioner

As the political turnstile turns...

An election-year session means transition is in the air.

Passidomo, the Senate president, and Renner, the House speaker, are in their second and final year at the helm. In the House, Rep. Daniel Perez, R-Miami, has been designated to succeed Renner and Sen. Ben Albritton, R-Wauchula, is poised to take over later this year from Passidomo.

But the two rising leaders are already expected to exert more influence over policy as they ready for their term in command.

Perez, in his designation ceremony in September, talked about the Legislature needing to regain some control from DeSantis, who has been calling most of the shots out of Tallahassee for the past five years backed by a go-along Legislature.

Albritton, a citrus grower, will combine with Perez to present an urban-rural balance atop the Legislature. Early signs of how this dynamic affects what’s considered a priority for Floridians are certain to be visible over the next two months.

Then there’s DeSantis, again.

He still has almost three years left in his second term as governor. But there’s no shortage of potential successors out there, including three Republican members of the Florida Cabinet: Attorney General Ashley Moody, Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson and Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis.

House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell of Tampa and Sen. Jason Pizzo, D-North Miami Beach, also are said to be considering runs for governor in 2026.

Bills or spending programs that might help position any one of these potential candidates for the future will be worth keeping an eye out for this session.

Also, look out for signs of lawmakers forging an alliance with somebody they think may wind up in the Governor’s Mansion when DeSantis is gone.

John Kennedy is a reporter in the USA TODAY Network’s Florida Capital Bureau. He can be reached at jkennedy2@gannett.com, or on X at @JKennedyReport.

This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Five things to watch in Florida legislative session 2024