5 times the underdog prevailed in Louisville vs Kentucky men's college basketball rivalry

Here’s a rare case where maybe stranger things haven’t happened.

In the modern history of the Louisville-Kentucky basketball rivalry — everything since 1983’s NCAA tournament “Dream Game” — there hasn’t been one quite like the Cardinals and Wildcats will stage Saturday.

The Cards are 2-11. And that more than anything Kentucky has done figures to make them a heavy underdog Saturday at Rupp Arena. The Wildcats have fallen flat in big games — including Wednesday's blowout loss at Missouri — but have flattened overmatched opponents, and on paper Louisville is among the latter.

College basketball analytics site KenPom.com projects a 23-point Kentucky win and gives Louisville a 2% chance at springing the upset.

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A Louisville win Saturday probably would be the most stunning in the modern era of the rivalry.

Maybe there's a case for one other — we'll get to that — but either way, there have been some memorable upsets over the years, and the Cards have proven the more likely of the two programs to pull one.

A look at five notable moments when the underdog showed its bite:

March 28, 2014: Kentucky 74, No. 5 Louisville 69

OK, so the Cards weren’t massive favorites — Vegas set the line at 4.5 — but the Cats technically were underdogs, and there was more than the point spread working against them. Entering the NCAA Midwest Region Semifinal in Indianapolis, Louisville coach Rick Pitino was 11-0 in Sweet 16 games.

Still, John Calipari had Pitino’s number, and Kentucky — a mostly disappointing team that caught fire in the NCAA tournament — had beaten reigning NCAA champ Louisville in the regular season.

The Cats repeated that feat despite falling behind 18-5 at the start, rallying behind key plays from Alex Poythress and 15 points each from Julius Randle, Dakari Johnson and Aaron Harrison, whose 3-pointer with 40 seconds to play put UK in front for good and presaged his clutch jumpers against Michigan and Wisconsin in ensuing rounds.

"Told them before the game: 'You'll get punched in the mouth and you're going to taste blood. You gonna fight or brace yourself for the next shot?'" Calipari said. "They fought."

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Dec. 28, 2002: Louisville 81, No. 14 Kentucky 63

As upsets go, this one is relatively mild, a one-loss Louisville team beating two-loss Kentucky at Freedom Hall. But the Wildcats were ranked and the Cardinals weren’t, and UK had been more tested early in the season, with wins over No. 20 Gonzaga and No. 12 North Carolina and a loss to No. 21 Michigan State.

But in Pitino’s second meeting with his old school as the Louisville coach, the Cards dismantled the Cats 51-30 in the second half, pulling away to a stunningly lopsided win. The late Marvin Stone — the center who’d transferred from UK to U of L — scored 16 points to lead all scorers, and Ellis Myles finished with 11 points and 14 rebounds.

The Cards went on to reach the C-USA Tournament and reach the second round of the NCAA tournament, their first under Pitino.

And the magnitude of the UK win only grew. The loss was Kentucky’s last in the regular season. Its next setback came when Dwyane Wade and Marquette won in the NCAA tournament’s Elite Eight to snap the Cats’ 26-game winning streak.

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Dec. 18, 1998: Louisville 83, No. 3 Kentucky 74

The NCAA had banned the Cardinals from postseason play, but a date with a top-five Kentucky team gave Louisville a major regular-season stage. And the Cards took advantage, handling a UK team that was coming off a loss to No. 2 Duke.

Marques Maybin led Louisville with 19 points, and Tony Williams and Cameron Murray added 14 points each. The Cards committed 20 turnovers but forced 18 — including six by Kentucky point guard Wayne Turner.

UK went 2 for 15 from 3-point range and 12 for 20 at the free-throw line.

"This was a big win for our kids because everybody thought it was a fluke last year — and it probably was,” Louisville coach Denny Crum said afterward. “These kids played their hearts out today and they played well.”

About that “last year” thing…

Dec. 27, 1997: Louisville 79, No. 4 Kentucky 76

If there’s a parallel to this Saturday’s game, it’s this 1997 stunner, when the Cardinals went into Rupp Arena and handed the Cats a loss that would only grow more perplexing as the season wore on.

The Cards would go on to lose 13 of their final 18 games, finishing the season 12-20.

The Wildcats, under new head coach Tubby Smith, lost two games the rest of the season and went on to win the 1998 NCAA championship.

It would take Kenny Payne’s Cards beating Calipari’s Cats on Saturday to unseat this as the greatest upset in the modern history of the rivalry. And a win for the current Cardinals might require a similarly shocking showing at both ends of the court.

The Wildcats had 72 field-goal attempts to the Cardinals’ 55. UK forced 19 turnovers and won the battle on the backboards 43-37.

And lost. Because it’s a make-or-miss game.

Louisville shot 50.9% from the floor and held Kentucky to 37.5% shooting.

The Cards’ Eric Johnson scored a game-high 20 points to lead four double-digit scorers, and Louisville held off a late Wildcat rally. Trailing by nine with 2:23 to play, UK pulled within three before forward Scott Padgett missed a potential game-tying 3-pointer just before the buzzer.

The win snapped Kentucky’s 39-game homecourt winning streak against nonconference opponents. A genuine shocker.

“We were going to be happy no matter who we beat,” Johnson said after the game. “Maybe it was a little sweeter because it was Kentucky.”

Jan. 1, 1995: Louisville 88, No. 5 Kentucky 86

With four consecutive wins in the series, Pitino and the Wildcats had threatened to take ownership of the rivalry. In a rare New Year’s Day game, the Cardinals fought them off, and Samaki Walker delivered the most damaging blows.

Walker had one of the great individual performances in the history of the series, finishing with a triple-double: 14 points, 10 rebounds and 11 blocked shots, the latter a single-game school record that still stands.

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After the game, Pitino said “Walker is only a freshman and he is one of the best I've ever seen.” The former Kentucky and Louisville coach is given to hyperbole, but on that afternoon, at least, Walker looked the part.

DeJuan Wheat scored 23 points to lead Louisville. Tony Delk matched that total for Kentucky. But the Cards stymied the Cats in the paint — Walker’s blocked shots keyed a then-school-record 17 for U of L — and on the perimeter. UK went 9 for 27 from 3-point range and shot 34.1% from the floor overall.

Reach Louisville men’s basketball reporter Brett Dawson at mdawson@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter at @BDawsonWrites.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Five times underdog won Louisville-UK college basketball rivalry game