50 days to go: Post Roe v. Wade, abortion is the X factor in Kentucky's 2022 election
Editor's note: Monday marks 50 days until this fall's general election. This is the third in our 'Countdown to Election Day' series. Every 25 days until Nov. 8, watch for a new story giving an in-depth look at an aspect of the upcoming election in Kentucky.
When the U.S. Supreme Court's conservative majority eliminated the nationwide right to abortion, that radically restricted abortion access in Kentucky ― and potentially fired up a lot of voters.
"It's almost (like) the sleeping giant has awakened," Western Kentucky University political science professor Saundra Curry Ardrey said of Americans who support abortion rights.
Abortion is now prohibited in Kentucky, with exceptions only for life-threatening health risks, due to a "trigger" ban the Republican-controlled state legislature passed that took effect after the Supreme Court's June ruling that struck down Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 decision that held the U.S. Constitution includes a right to the procedure.
Related:After decisive Kansas vote, Kentucky voters will get their say in abortion's future
How Kentuckians vote in November could significantly impact the future of abortion access here. The key races include:
Constitutional Amendment 2: Voters potentially could restore broader access to abortion if they vote against this proposal. The amendment would prevent the state constitution from protecting a right to abortion, cutting off a possible route to legally overturn the legislature's near-total abortion ban.
Kentucky Supreme Court: Three judicial seats are up for grabs, and Republican state Rep. Joe Fischer ― the lead sponsor of the trigger ban and Amendment 2 ― is running for one of them. This court's role in reviewing abortion laws became more important since the U.S. Supreme Court remanded decisions on abortion to state governments.
Congress: The Democratic Party could push to reinstate Roe v. Wade's nationwide right to abortion (and restore broader access to the procedure in Kentucky) if it keeps control of the House of Representatives and expands its slim majority in the Senate. Anti-abortion Sen. Rand Paul's seat and all six of Kentucky's U.S. House seats are on the ballot.
Kentucky General Assembly: Anti-abortion Republican supermajorities rule the legislature and are highly likely to maintain that power after this election. Chipping away at the size of those majorities by electing Democrats who support abortion rights could factor into lawmakers' future decisions on abortion legislation.
Related:With Roe overturned, will Kentucky's legislature push for even more abortion restrictions?
Addia Wuchner, executive director of the anti-abortion Kentucky Right to Life group, expressed confidence that past and present lawmakers' choices to restrict abortion reflect the long-term values of the state's overall electorate.
“Politics may change ... But the heart of the people has been pro-life," she said.
Ardrey, meanwhile, doesn't expect Kentucky's increasingly conservative electorate to send out a big blue wave but said Republican candidates' margins of victory could shrink if people who support abortion rights vote accordingly.
She said she's seeing enthusiasm from collegiate women in Warren County who are fired up after losing Roe v. Wade. It seems like a wake-up call for young Americans, especially, Ardrey said.
“They missed sort of the movements of the '60s, the '70s, the '80s. They just assumed that those rights were given to them and they were going to be there," she said. "This may be just the beginning of a surge of another movement."
Wuchner said the Supreme Court's June ruling "changed everything" and added, "We're in a new dynamic."
Where Kentuckians stand on abortion
There doesn't appear to be much recent publicly available polling on Kentuckians' abortion views, but one summer survey provided some data.
A consortium that includes Northeastern, Harvard, Rutgers and Northwestern universities did a nationwide survey from June 8 to July 6 that gathered responses from just under 475 Kentuckians. (The Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade on June 24, but Politico revealed the court's planned decision on May 2 after it was leaked.)
The survey included a range of questions about whether respondents support or oppose abortion in different situations, and Kentucky consistently ranked among the 15 states that were least supportive of abortion.
However, a higher percentage of the Kentuckians surveyed supported abortion versus the percentage who opposed it in four scenarios:
If a fetus is likely to be born with serious health problems or birth defects;
If a pregnancy resulted from rape;
If a pregnancy could harm a woman's health but is very unlikely to cause her death; and
If staying pregnant could cause the woman's death.
Abortion isn't allowed in Kentucky under those first three circumstances due to the trigger ban.
More politics:How Stuart Ray's life shaped his approach to these issues in his bid for Congress
Turning out voters for Kentucky's abortion fight
The fate of a lawsuit challenging the ban could hinge on if voters approve or reject Amendment 2.
Republican Secretary of State Michael Adams said he and county clerks wonder if the battle over that amendment could drive up November's turnout, which is otherwise anticipated to be under 40%.
"But certainly the Amendment 2 issue is an X factor, and we don’t know what to expect," he said.
Notably, about 10% of Kentucky's electorate isn't registered as a Democrat or a Republican. Adams said the ranks of such independents are often growing at a faster rate each month than the ascendant GOP, which outnumbers the Democratic Party in the state.
People unaffiliated with any political party were key to the coalition of Kansas voters who rejected a constitutional amendment similar to Kentucky's Amendment 2, said Rachel Sweet, who managed a big campaign against the proposal in Kansas, a traditional red state.
Kansas voters voted down their anti-abortion amendment, 59% to 41%. Of all the voters in that August election, she said, about 20% were unaffiliated.
Now Sweet is managing Protect Kentucky Access's campaign to defeat Amendment 2. That coalition includes several core partner organizations, but other groups have been joining the cause, too. They'll all work to talk to voters statewide.
And some more politics:Abortion, pre-K and preemies: How Congress hopeful Morgan McGarvey came to his views
It has long been a mainstream position that abortion should be legal, Sweet said.
"It was just something that I think for many voters was kind of out of sight and out of mind."
To date, Protect Kentucky Access has far outraised the pro-Amendment 2 Yes for Life group, with over $1.2 million left on hand in early September versus Yes for Life's roughly $390,000.
Wuchner, Yes for Life's chair, said its coalition started out with a handful of organizations but there's a "groundswell" of more organizations taking up their cause. They're focused on asking people to turn out and vote yes on Amendment 2 this fall.
Though they're campaigning for different outcomes, Sweet and Wuchner shared a similar outlook on what's on the line in this election.
"When it comes to abortion ... it’s all at stake," Wuchner said.
Morgan Watkins is The Courier Journal's chief political reporter. Contact her at mwatkins@courierjournal.com. Follow her on Twitter: @morganwatkins26.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Post Roe v. Wade, abortion is the X factor in Kentucky's 2022 election
