DUBLIN, Oct. 10, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The "5G: What is the Real Status & What Are the Real Economics?" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.
What is the real status of 5G, and what are the real associated economics? How will the various related areas of infrastructure support 5G? While the conversion to 5G offers some uniquely exciting possibilities, the hype associated with it has overshadowed the reality of the situation. The marketing claims of some carriers are already confusing the introduction of 5G.
The base purpose of 5G, to add vast amounts of mobile phone capacity, is being overshadowed. Each of the three principal varieties of 5G - mmWave, mid-band, and low-band has different qualities and capabilities. These are being continually confused by present marketing hype.
This report strives to provide a clear statement as to the real, current status of 5G deployment and likely future deployment, including an objective review of the economics associated with 5G.
5G refers to a set of international standards for a new (5th) generation of mobile communications service. It is intended to ultimately replace the service currently available in most of the US - 4G LTE. It is designed to be much faster (maybe up to 100 times as fast as 4G LTE) in terms of download or upload speeds. Data reception is anticipated to have much lower latency (time spent in transmission) so that the data is in very near real-time - close to zero lag.
This added speed is excellent, and it is often a discussion topic, but it is not the real objective of 5G. The aim is to provide higher capacity on our mobile networks. Higher capacity for data, for voice, but mostly for video. Why the need for added traffic capacity? Simple: Cisco is now estimating that the compound annual growth rate of mobile traffic through 2022 is 36%! Our 4G-LTE networks are already nearing capacity in large cities, and yet are facing this impossible growth curve. The 5G is the answer to provide a vast new ability to meet this growing demand. All the other rationales for 5G are dreams; this is the driving reason.
The first question mostly ignored is the cost. There are many estimates available for 5G full deployment (small cells, mmWave) in the US. Early (2017) estimates fell in the $28B to $36B range for five years. Newer estimates now suggest that the cost over seven years would be as much as $275B and that the fibre alone needed for deploying the small cells would be as much as $130B-$150B. For a reference point, $275B would be well over ten times the total AT&T 2019 Capital Budget! A current study takes a different approach to the cost question and estimates that the total cost of ownership (TOC - includes maintenance, capital, and all fees) could increase for the mobile networks by as much as 300%!
These are big numbers - yes, the B's above are billions of dollars. These numbers suggest that we may be letting the technical hype run away with reality. A sudden conversion to a fully developed 5G large metro island, as is depicted in the many beautiful drawings, would be prohibitively expensive without some new services that would help, substantially, pay the bills. The question is, what new services pay for this? Alternatively, where are the added customers who pick up this big tab?
This comprehensive report is going to consider these issues and ultimately suggest the likely scenario for 5G deployment and associated five-year expenditures in this country. It moves into a discussion of 5G from many viewpoints, including objectives, frequency plans, architecture, and a listing and analysis of the vendors involved in the various parts of 5G infrastructure - phones, radios, and chipsets.
The report includes a discussion of the recent purchase by Apple of Intel 5G assets, and the recent Department of Justice approval of the T-Mobile/Sprint merger. Included is the analysis of the implications of 5G deployment of each of these current legal events.
The report presents, in detail, IoT, and Autonomous Vehicles as two possible use cases often mentioned for 5G. This report also examines the possibility of much higher levels of competition for high-speed Internet (and other fixed services) enabled through 5G fixed wireless. The final main section of the report deals with specific forecasts for 5G in the US and the impact of those forecasts on overall network requirements. Those forecasts include:
The forecast deployment scenario and associated timeline and estimated capital expenditures as well as:
US Traffic - Total and Mobile
US Mobile Carriers Forecast Growth
5G Phones Availability and Sources
IoT 5G Impact
Autonomous Vehicles 5G Impact
Over Build/ Cross Boundary Forecast
US 5G Penetration Forecast by Major Service
5G Overall likely implementation plan and timeline
Appendixes provide details of the possible use cases and discuss the history of cellular development in the US. They also describe how we have moved along the path from one generation to the next. For reference, they also include various data and traffic issues.
Key Topics Covered
3. What is 5G?
Higher Data Rate
Massive Device Connectivity
Consistent Quality of Experience Provisioning
4. Status of the Primary US Carriers Involved in 5G?
Verizon 5G Deployment Status
T-Mobile US 5G Deployment Status
Sprint 5G Deployment Status
T-Mobile and Sprint Merger
5. Economics of 5G
What Investments Are Involved in Infrastructure?
Cell Site Work and Additions
How Much Will Infrastructure Investments Cost?
How Much Are the Major Telcos Going to Spend on 5G Infrastructure?
6. Architecture of 5G
5G Network Cooperation
5G Frequency Plans
Various Cell Sizes for 5G Networks
5G Network Architecture and Application Illustrations
7. 5G Infrastructure
Small Cell Antennas
MIMO and 5G
Massive MIMO Spectrum Multiplying Advantage
Verizon Fiber Plan for 5G
Android Based Phones
Other Customer Access Devices
Radio Equipment Manufactures
Chip Set Vendors
8. Types of 5G
9. 5G Forecasts
10. Forecast Deployment Scenario
2022 and Later
12. Capital Forecast for 5G
13. Individual Area Forecasts
Mobile Traffic Forecast
US Mobile Carriers Forecast
5G Penetration Forecast - US
Smartphone Growth Forecast for 5G - the US
5G Phone Introduction Plans
5G US Penetration Forecast - Phones
Major Use Cases of 5G - Penetration Forecast
IoT - Internet of Things - 5G Penetration Forecast
Autonomous Vehicles - 5G Penetration Forecast
Forecast Network Impact of Autonomous Vehicles and IoT
14. Forecast Summary
US Mobile Carriers
15. Appendix I - History of Generations of Cellular Phones in the USA
History of Cellular Phones in the US
What are the Generations?
High-Speed Downlink Packet Access
3GPP Long Term Evolution, the Precursor of LTE Advanced
16. Appendix II. Major Use Cases For 5G: IoT Autonomous Vehicles, Overbuild
IoT - The Internet of Things
Availability of a Network for Connection - a Major Problem with IoT
Cellular IoT Connections Explained: NB-IoT vs. LTE-M vs. 5G and More
How did Cellular IoT come to Be?
Cellular IoT is meant to meet the requirements of low-power, long-range applications.
5G as an IoT Connection Solution
How Does 5G Enable IoT?
Autonomous Vehicles Benefits
Current Versions of Autonomy
Issues with Autonomous Development
Availability of a Network for Interconnection
Overbuild - 5G as a Major Competitive Tool
17. Appendix III - List of US Cellular Carriers
Contiguous US and Hawaii
18. Appendix IV - Traffic Statistics Relationships
SONET/SDH Data Rates
19. Appendix V Data Traffic Fundamentals
20. Internet Traffic Calculations
Bits and Bytes
Busy Hour Traffic
For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/vwr93e
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