6 things we're watching on Election Day

It’s Election Day in New Jersey, and it could be a wild one.

No one foresaw the Republican surge of 2021, but everyone is on the lookout for one tonight. But no one knows what to expect.

With all 120 seats in the state Legislature at the top of the ticket, the only certainty is low turnout. And that’s what makes this election something of a wild card. A strong showing on one side and weak turnout on the other could make all the difference in who controls the legislative agenda in 2024.

Here are six things we’re watching this election:

Red wave repeat?

Republicans in New Jersey need a repeat of the 2021 elections and then some to have a chance at their long-elusive goal of taking control in the Statehouse.

But if there’s been a year the last two decades for it to happen, it’s this one. Democratic President Joe Biden is unpopular even in New Jersey, which he won by 16 points in 2020. Republicans have hammered Democrats on national issues, such as LGBTQ policies in schools and the impact of offshore wind. And the indictment of Sen. Bob Menendez doesn’t help.

Having picked up seven seats in the Legislature in 2021 — most notably the one held by then-Senate President Steve Sweeney in the country’s biggest upset — the GOP is seeking to build on that success by reclaiming one or both chambers.

It’s a long shot in both houses, though. They trail Democrats in the Senate 25-15 and 46-34 in the Assembly. That means Republicans must hold the seats they won in 2021 plus flip six seats in the Senate and seven in the Assembly. The math is possible, but it also means pretty much everything has to break right for Republicans.

— Dustin Racioppi

The fight for suburban women

Many of New Jersey’s middle-class and upper middle-class suburban women in traditionally Republican areas turned to Democrats during Donald Trump’s first campaign and presidency — a trend that occurred all over the country. That helped New Jersey Democrats offset losses of working-class voters in South Jersey who turned towards Republicans in the Trump era.

Now Republicans are hoping to win back some of those voters by harnessing backlash to sex ed curricula and school policies that don’t require administrators to inform parents if a student identifies as a different gender than they were assigned at birth.

The issues have roiled school board meetings and made their way prominently into state legislative campaigns, with Republican candidates taking up the cause of “parental rights.” And polling shows they may be on to something, with one showing an overwhelming majority of New Jersey parents saying schools should be required to notify parents about their children’s gender identity and opposing teaching younger students about gender identification.

Democrats are countering with their own politically potent issue: abortion rights. While New Jersey has written abortion into state law, Democrats are warning voters that Republicans will pass restrictions if they get into power.

While it’s not clear how effective pro-abortion rights messaging will be in New Jersey, where they are unlikely to be imperiled any time soon, the issue has proven to motivate voters in redder states where they actually are at risk and has been credited with helping Democrats stave off huge losses around the country in the 2022 midterm elections.

The issue has arguably been used most aggressively by state Sens. Andrew Zwicker (D-Middlesex) and Vin Gopal (D-Monmouth) in Central Jersey. Zwicker has attacked his Republican opponent, former U.S. Rep. Mike Pappas, for opposing abortion even in cases of rape and incest — something Pappas has acknowledged. Gopal has gone after his Republican opponent, Steve Dnistrian, for refusing to take a position on abortion rights during an interview.

— Matt Friedman

Battles for the south

The South Jersey Democratic machine, for decades a feared and powerful voting bloc unofficially led by insurance executive George Norcross, has been in decline for several years following the region’s rightward political drift during the Trump era.

Now, two years after Sweeney — the most powerful elected official from that region of the state — suffered a shocking defeat at the hands of truck driver Ed Durr, Democrats are hoping to rebuild their power south of I-195 in three key districts.

In District 3, which includes parts of Gloucester and Cumberland Counties and all of Salem County, Durr leads a ticket facing a tough challenge by former Democratic Assemblymember John Burzichelli, who lost on Sweeney’s ticket in 2021 after 20 years in office.

Democrats did not see Durr as a threat two years ago and did little to campaign against him. This time, they’re not holding back, highlighting Durr’s opposition to abortion rights and spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to show voters a 2020 Facebook post in which Durr said “A woman does have a choice! Keep her legs closed” and that he “liked” a post that called for spaying women.

Durr has hit back at Burzichelli for “moonlighting as an X-rated movie producer” for producing a film in the early 1980s of a male strip show akin to Chippendales. Policy-wise, Burzichelli says the district has suffered under Durr, whom he accuses of focusing on culture war issues to the detriment of funding for the district, which for years had powerful representation in Trenton.

Read more about the competitive districts here.

Republicans are going on the offensive in District 4, which is made up of roughly equal parts of Camden and Gloucester county. Twenty-year incumbent state Sen. Fred Madden (D-Gloucester) is retiring. Assemblymember Paul Moriarty (D-Gloucester) is leading a ticket to succeed him against Republican state Senate candidate Chris Del Borrello, a former Washington Township council member.

While Durr is not on the ballot there, a newly formed Democratic super PAC is running ads attempting to tie Del Borrello to Durr’s abortion comments.

In District 2 in Atlantic County, state Sen. Vince Polistina (R-Atlantic) and his incumbent Assembly running mates are being challenged by County Commissioner Caren Fitzpatrick.

The race has focused in part on Polistina’s opposition to a now-aborted wind power project off its coast, as well as a brief period in which the Biden administration floated Atlantic City airport in Egg Harbor Township as one of 11 possible sites to house migrants from New York City. The idea, while nothing but a brief suggestion, stirred opposition from most local elected officials and put Democrats on the defensive by raising a policy of the unpopular president.

Democrats are also spending some resources in Burlington County’s District 8, where the GOP has nominated Latham Tiver, a former county freeholder, to replace the retiring state Sen. Jean Stanfield (R-Burlington). Tiver is running with Assembly incumbents Michael Torrisi and Brandon Umba against Democratic state Senate candidate Gaye Burton and Assembly candidates Andrea Katz and Anthony Angelozzi.

While candidates and independent expenditure groups had spent almost $1.7 million on the race a little less than two weeks ahead of the election, it’s a stretch for them, as even Republican-turned-Democratic incumbent state Sen. Dawn Addiego couldn’t hold the seat in 2021.

— Matt Friedman

Senatorial courtesy in South Jersey

An overlooked prize of Tuesday's election could be a Republican firewall of senatorial courtesy across all of South Jersey.

The unwritten but strictly followed rule allows senators to block gubernatorial nominations, like judges, from their home country and district without justification.

A Republican sweep of competitive districts could leave them with say over gubernatorial nominees in every South Jersey county. If GOP state Senate candidate Chris Del Borrello wins the highly competitive fourth legislative district, Republicans will have courtesy over all of Camden County — which would be a major blow for the South Jersey Democratic machine.

Republicans could also have a monopoly on county-wide senatorial courtesy in Atlantic, Gloucester and Monmouth should they win competitive seats. A Republican hold in the 8th legislative district — a competitive but likely Republican district — will result in Republicans still having senatorial courtesy across all of Burlington County.

— Daniel Han

Will “phantom candidates” make a difference?

In District 4, two independent candidates in June quietly filed to run using the slogan “Conservative South Jersey.”

The candidates — Giuseppe Costanzo for Senate and Maureen Dukes Penrose for Assembly — drew little notice until October, when a mysterious political organization called Jersey Freedom popped up with a Queens, New York P.O. Box and no point of contact, sending mailers and running TV ads to promote the two unknowns.

Costanzo has refused to talk to the press, and Dukes Penrose in brief remarks to the New Jersey Globe said she was encouraged to run by state Sen. Fred Madden (D-Gloucester), whose retirement has opened the seats up.

While it would likely be challenging to prove in court that the “phantom candidates” ran for office in bad faith, the circumstantial evidence surrounding their campaigns strongly suggests that their true purpose is to confuse voters, drawing away votes that would likely have gone to the Republican ticket headed by state Senate candidate Chris Del Borrello. He’s facing a ticket headed up by Assemblymember Paul Moriarty (D-Gloucester), who’s hoping to succeed Madden, his longtime running mate.

If the race is razor-thin, even a small number of voters for the alleged phantom candidates could sway it. A Republican attorney suggested last week that such an outcome could lead them to challenging the election results.

Jersey Freedom is also promoting a Libertarian candidate in District 2, where state Sen. Vince Polistina (R-Atlantic) faces a challenge from Democratic Atlantic County Commissioner Caren Fitzpatrick. But that candidate, Shawn Peck, denounced Jersey Freedom, dropped out of the race and endorsed Polistina once he saw it was promoting his candidacy. Nevertheless, his name remains on the ballot.

The Republican State Committee filed a lawsuit and on Friday convinced a judge to freeze the bank account of Jersey Freedom — the group promoting the alleged phantom candidates. But since the group has already issued mailers and paid for TV ads, the decision may not have much of an effect on its activities.

— Matt Friedman

Is this election more transparent?

This is New Jersey’s first election to fully take place under the Elections Transparency Act, a massive law that overhauled state campaign finance rules, including by increasing campaign contribution limits, gutting the state’s anti-”pay to play” laws and reducing the authority of the Election Law Enforcement Commission.

But one less controversial part of the law is a provision that requires so-called “dark money” independent expenditure groups to disclose their major donors within 60 days of a general election. Some groups are exploiting loopholes in the law or allegedly outright ignoring it.

The group Jersey Freedom did not file a registration with ELEC until late last Friday and reported $35,000 in debt to a printer without listing any donors. And in Sayreville, an organization is spending thousands to promote Republican former Mayor Kennedy O’Brien’s comeback. Patriots for Progress had raised $77,000 as of Oct. 24 but did not list any of the donors because independent expenditure groups are only required to detail donations of more than $7,500.

And even as independent expenditure groups spend millions of dollars to influence the elections, the new law has in one way made their spending less transparent. Previously, political organizations spending late in the campaign were required to disclose their spending every 48 hours. The Elections Transparency Act eliminated that requirement.

Now, after filing their 11-day preelection reports, independent expenditure groups are not required to disclose their expenses until 20 days after the election. Effectively, that leaves the public guessing on who’s spending what between Oct. 24 and Election Day.

But it won’t be until after the election that the press and other interested parties can take full stock of the Elections Transparency Act to determine whether it added any transparency to the political process.

— Matt Friedman