Virginia election was opening salvo for 2022 midterms. What's next for Biden, American politics?

WASHINGTON – The end of the off-year elections in 2021 signals the start of a brutal 2022 campaign season for control of Congress and big-state governors' offices, races that will turn on a variety of factors – starting with the images of President Joe Biden and predecessor Donald Trump.

If the Virginia governor's race and other contests Tuesday are guideposts, Biden's record will be a defining issue as Democrats try to hold their razor-thin margins in both chambers of Congress.

So will Trump's plans to hit the trail for Republicans he favors as part of his effort to keep a tight grip on the GOP, which could energize the base to victory or divide the party by alienating moderate voters.

More: McAuliffe and Youngkin are in a dead heat in Virginia governor election, poll shows

As Virginia's gubernatorial contest went down to the wire, Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin made arguments that will resonate across the country in 2022.

Here are some of them.

Biden's popularity plummets

During the campaign, McAuliffe told supporters that "we are facing a lot of headwinds from Washington" and that "the president is unpopular today, unfortunately, here in Virginia."

Unless Biden's political fortunes improve – he had a 42% approval rating in an NBC News poll released over the weekend – Republicans will use his unpopularity to club Democrats in every close 2022 race.

Other figures within the survey, reflecting how bad Americans say they feel during Biden's first year in office, are troubling for Democrats.

Seventy-one percent of Americans, including 7 out of 10 independents and roughly 48% of Democrats, say in the NBC News survey that the USA is headed in the wrong direction.

Worse yet – just 18% strongly approve of Biden compared with about 46% who strongly disapprove of the president.

Of course, the Democrats will do some clubbing of their own – using Trump.

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump: The other Virginia governor's race

Trump hits the trail

The former White House occupant said he plans to campaign for Republicans throughout 2022, including primary challengers to GOP officeholders who have criticized the former president.

It figures to add up to unprecedented political activity by a one-term president who lost reelection one year ago.

"If Youngkin is able to win, he could provide a blueprint for other Republicans in how to balance the Trump issue," said Jessica Taylor, the U.S. Senate and governors' editor with The Cook Political Report.

Democrats welcome Trump's involvement, saying his lack of popularity in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will undercut GOP candidates.

"The Big Lie doesn’t just define Trump's insane actions (regarding) the 2020 election but it describes the entire GOP – One Big Ole Messy Lie," Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison tweeted Sept. 21. "In 2022 let’s give the GOP plenty of losses to lie about!"

McAuliffe tried to use this tactic in Virginia, frequently casting Youngkin as a "Trump wannabe."

The Big Lie refers to false claims of widespread election fraud in 2020.

Battle for the ’burbs

A year after Trump's defeat, Youngkin and other Republicans put a priority on the places where Biden secured his victory: the suburbs.

Nationwide, Biden defeated Trump among suburban voters by 50%-48%, according to exit polls. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the suburbs four years before, by 49%-45% in exit polls.

More: Can Republicans reclaim suburban voters turned off by Donald Trump?

Republicans will try to reverse the suburban Democratic trend in 2022.

Voters of color

McAuliffe and the Democrats made a big push to increase turnout among Black voters in Virginia, and their efforts will be replicated nationwide next year.

The Virginia race featured Democrat Hala Ayala and Republican Winsome Sears, both vying to become the first woman of color to hold the lieutenant governor's job. Next year's elections may see a record number of female candidates of color, especially Black women.

"Black women don't feel like we're listened to," said Nadia Brown, professor of government and chair of the Women’s and Gender Studies Program at Georgetown University. Brown said Black women are running for office at higher rates to "ensure that they can set the political agenda rather than just responding to it."

More: Barack Obama stumps for Terry McAuliffe as tight Va. governor's race worries Democrats

Hala Ayala vs Winsome Sears: Virginia's next lieutenant governor will make history

Last year, 9 in 10 Black voters supported Biden, which was critical for Democrats winning Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If those numbers soften even slightly, that could be enough for Republicans to take advantage.

Both parties also look to increase their share of the Hispanic vote.

Youngkin aimed to mimic Trump's relative success among Hispanic voters; the Republican claimed 32% of the Hispanic vote last year, exit polls said, up from 28% in the election of 2016.

Parents' rights fight emerges

The Youngkin campaign made education and parents' rights a centerpiece in Virginia by spotlighting protests at school boards across the country.

Various dark money groups and parent-led demonstrations bombarded officials with complaints ranging from COVID-19 mask mandates to the teaching of racial issues in the classroom.

Attorney General Merrick Garland announced in a memo in October that the Justice Department would investigate threats against teachers and school board members, which ignited a furious response from House Republicans.

"Every parent in America has a right to be involved in their child's education," House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said Oct. 30 in a tweet. "The Biden administration owes them an apology for all the senseless harassment, intimidation, and targeting."

Expect Republicans to carry the parental rights banner throughout the country in 2022, similar to the way they did with the tea party movement leading up to the 2010 midterms.

Democrats accuse the GOP of using "dog whistles" to ignite a culture war and trying to scare mostly white voters over the rights of minorities, women and LGBTQ citizens.

Could abortion be a deciding factor?

Next year, the Supreme Court is likely to rule on the constitutionality of the Roe vs. Wade decision of 1973 and basically decide whether states can ban abortions – a major issue in Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

During the Virginia campaign, McAuliffe said Youngkin didn't want to discuss abortion but planned to pursue a ban if he got into office.

Look for Democratic candidates in 2022 to copy that strategy, seeking to appeal to women voters in the suburbs.

New voter rules could impact '22

Next year's elections will be held under a bevy of new state rules that supporters said would protect election integrity, but opponents argued that they are designed to suppress voters, especially people of color.

USA TODAY analyzed more than 250 laws passed in 45 states and found about 55 million eligible voters live in places with tighter rules.

One of the biggest areas in which voters will notice a difference, depending on their state, will be rules around absentee mail ballots.

In 27 states, the way those votes are requested, filled out and physically slipped into a drop box expanded, but it became more restrictive in 13.

Overall, Americans saw a net loss of more than 160 days in absentee voting availability under the changes.

'A new American fault line': How new election laws will make it harder for 55 million to vote

'Election subversion' accusations: Donald Trump and allies look for new ways to challenge votes

That is going to be particularly worrisome for voting rights advocates in Georgia, which undertook a major overhaul to its election rules before the 2022 midterms.

Last year, drop boxes were allowed outdoors and available 24 hours through Election Day. The state's new election law limits their use to inside early voting spaces and within early voting hours.

The drop boxes in each county have been capped per 100,000 active registered voters or one for each early voting location in the county, whichever is smaller.

In the four core counties that make up the heart of metro Atlanta – Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb and Gwinnett – and one-third of the state's entire Black population, the drop box locations will shrink from 111 to 23.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What 2021 elections say about 2022 midterms (and Biden and Trump)